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Tag Archive for: United Nations

Choosing the next overseer of the nuclear-test-ban treaty

Amid the nightmare of a global pandemic and the crumbling pillars of nuclear arms control, the leadership of one of the few stars in the nuclear firmament still shining bright is due for vote in Vienna on 25–27 November.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty is a curious beast. When negotiations were stuck in the fossilised Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, Australia led the rescue effort by taking it for adoption to the UN General Assembly in 1996. Uniquely among arms control treaties, if not all treaties, it’s fully operational without legally having entered into force. It’s been signed by 184 countries and ratified by 168. Annex 2 lists 44 countries whose ratifications are required for entry into force. Of the 44, China, Egypt, Iran, Israel and the US have signed but not ratified. India, North Korea and Pakistan have not signed.

The prospects of all eight holdout ratifications happening in my lifetime are nil, and it’s a waste of time and effort to worry about it beyond ritualistic reaffirmation. The formula might have been deliberately designed to frustrate the treaty’s entry into force. The standard formula specifies the number of ratifications needed followed by the number of days to a treaty coming into force. Thus with the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, only 50 ratifications were needed. The 50th was received on 24 October and it will have legal force on 22 January, despite none of the bomb-possessing countries signing.

The test-ban treaty departs radically from this. The obvious question, which some of us raised at the time, is: what would have happened to other treaties with an equivalent formula? The emphatic answer is that none of them, not even the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty as the cornerstone of the global nuclear order, would be legally in force even today.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is the implementing arm of the test-ban treaty. Until it enters into force, a provisional technical secretariat is responsible for verifying the ban on nuclear tests through the international monitoring system of 301 facilities and site inspections. Australia hosts 22 monitoring stations and a laboratory as part of the international system—the third largest number of facilities in the world.

The provisional secretariat is headed by an executive secretary who oversees 260 staff and an annual budget of around US$130 million. The executive secretary leads efforts on the treaty’s verification system and ensures that all member states receive the data from monitoring stations, particularly when a nuclear test (or earthquake) is detected. The officeholders to date have been Germany’s Wolfgang Hoffmann (1997–2005), Hungary’s Tibor Tóth (2005–13) and Burkina Faso’s Lassina Zerbo since 2013.

Zerbo’s second term will be completed on 31 July. By the close of nominations on 9 October, the only name put forward to succeed him was Robert Floyd from Australia. However, in response to a query from the governing board chair, Algeria’s Faouzia Mebarki, in June Zerbo said if member states wished, he would be available to serve another term. (Disclosure: I know both Floyd and Zerbo; being based in Canberra, of course I have had many more interactions with Floyd.)

As a student of UN-centred global governance, I’m a strong proponent of two-term limits for chief executives of all international organisations. In the case of the CTBTO, this is reinforced by precedents and by Article 49 of the treaty, which sets a two-term limit for the director-general of the secretariat once the treaty has entered into force. For the sake of the institutional integrity of the office and the organisation, the dignified option for successful and exemplary chief executives is a graceful exit for having done the job well and earned the international community’s gratitude. The moral and political authority of the executive secretary to ensure compliance with the test-ban treaty’s provisions would be fatally undermined if the incumbent violated the treaty on the sophistry that the Article 49 limit didn’t apply to the present situation.

Member states circumvented the legal impediment to entry into force by bringing the international monitoring system into operation for all practical purposes as if the treaty were already in force. Part of that must include applying the term limits set out in the treaty. Zerbo has done a very good job in consolidating the organisation’s operational monitoring system to the point of impressive credibility. If a good prospective candidate wasn’t available, then, but only then, member states might consider a third term for him.

Floyd is a good, indeed an impressively credentialled candidate to carry on the critical work of the CTBTO. A scientist by training, he is currently director-general of the Australian Safeguards and Non-Proliferation Office, the national authority for implementation of various treaties to control weapons of mass destruction, including the test-ban treaty. With a proven track record of high-level technical, managerial and diplomatic leadership at the interface of technical and political issues, he plans, if selected, to build consensus in international efforts to advance nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. It’s not as though Australians have historically been or currently are overrepresented in leadership positions of international organisations.

The Indo-Pacific has been the site of seven different sets of nuclear tests carried out by China, France, India, North Korea, Pakistan, the UK and the US since 1945. Australia’s history in relation to nuclear testing is conflicted. Between 1956 and 1963, Britain conducted several nuclear tests on Australian territory that left long-lasting scars on Indigenous populations in particular. From 1966 to 1996, France conducted nearly 200 atmospheric and underground tests in French Polynesia. This galvanised sentiment against nuclear testing across the Pacific and turned Australia and New Zealand into global campaigners for a complete ban on testing.

Looking ahead, the CTBTO needs to closely watch developments in North Korea, which could soon resume nuclear testing. Conversely, if North Korea is denuclearised against expectations, the CTBTO will have a critical role in the subsequent verification machinery. Either way, having an experienced Indo-Pacific hand at the helm will be an asset.

Recovery and renewal at the UN

The international community urgently needs new tools, ideas and initiatives to meet the common threats and challenges faced by the United Nations’ 193 member countries. The world body’s 75th anniversary, marked on United Nations Day on 24 October, presents an opportunity to chart a path to the partnerships we need to meet the challenges we will face in the years and decades to come. In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic—the costliest and most far-reaching crisis since World War II—the need for institutional renewal and recovery is obvious.

Among the most ominous threats and challenges, beyond pandemic disease, are a rapidly changing global climate, violent conflict and large-scale displacement in fragile states, and sophisticated cyberattacks. What these challenges have in common is that they are beyond the ability of any country to resolve on its own. International cooperation is crucial, but that cooperation is being jeopardised by a resurgence in nationalism which threatens the very structure of the international order built three-quarters of a century ago.

Rising nationalism raises a significant risk that the UN system’s structure and institutions, essential but in need of repair and rejuvenation, may instead be left to decline, decay and even collapse. Such an outcome would be tragic, not just for those institutions but for all of humanity.

We believe there is another path. To help promote cooperative responses to today’s most pressing global problems, we are delighted to lend our support to the Roadmap for the future we want and UN we need, presented last month to the president of the UN General Assembly at the UN75 Global Governance Forum. Having defended our countries’ foreign policies as their representatives in New York, and having shaped them at the helm of our respective foreign ministries, we know from experience that original ideas from external stakeholders can help move complex multilateral organisations towards positive-sum outcomes.

Individuals and organisations from across global civil society have an opportunity, during this year’s commemoration of the UN’s founding, to help create ‘The future we want, the United Nations we need’, the anniversary’s umbrella theme. The secretary-general’s Global Conversation has already engaged over a million people worldwide through surveys, formal polling and hundreds of dialogues. Such discussions and debates serve as a reminder that the UN system has, over the past several decades, offered lifesaving support to vulnerable people, safeguarded basic human rights, advanced sustainable development and prevented a Third World War.

If all member states act upon the UN75 Declaration properly and with the support of global civil society, they can nurture a renewed spirit of international cooperation with two mutually reinforcing goals: institutional strengthening and a robust, ‘green’ recovery from the pandemic.

In particular, we, alongside other partners, call upon world leaders to raise the ambition of the declaration’s 12 commitments. They should agree to augment each with carefully developed proposals and action plans to bolster institutional capacity, improve policy and strengthen public–private partnerships, all of which will be further developed in the follow-up report from the UN secretary-general mandated by the declaration.

We also advocate a world summit on inclusive global governance, as called for in the Stimson Center’s recent UN 2.0 report. To be held by September 2023, the summit would seek to upgrade and equip the global governance system to address major issues facing the international community, and to usher in a new compact with citizens to enhance and rebuild confidence in their multilateral institutions.

In the lead-up to this 2023 leaders’ meeting, two G20 summits, akin to those held in London and Pittsburgh to chart a way forward from the 2008 global financial crisis, should be convened in 2021, focusing on coordinated macroeconomic, social and environmental policies to promote a durable recovery from Covid-19. These discussions among the leaders of the largest economies should be synchronised, in turn, with a broader Covid recovery strategy that seeks the endorsement of all 193 UN member states and support from international financial institutions, the World Trade Organization and other global and regional bodies.

In 2015, when our Commission on Global Security, Justice and Governance presented its UN70 report, Confronting the crisis of global governance, both the headlines and trendlines foreshadowed the return of virulent nationalism, fuelled by surging migration, economic inequality and leaders who dehumanise others and seek to divide rather than unite. Five years on, enlightened leadership is needed more than ever, supported by ideas and political pressure from civil society worldwide. By reviving cooperation to meet today’s many challenges, we can ensure that ‘the future we want’, for today’s younger generation and all future generations, becomes the future we get.

The EU stands with the UN

In any normal year, I would be in New York City now for the annual opening of the United Nations General Assembly. The event represents the greatest concentration of global policymakers in one place and is the high point on the diplomatic calendar. But this year is far from normal, and ‘UNGA week’ is going virtual with events held online—a familiar format for us all in recent months.

This is unfortunate for several reasons. It is the UN’s 75th anniversary, and one would have wished for a better way to mark the occasion. Moreover, the state of the world is such that the multilateral system, with the UN at its core, is being challenged like never before—and just when we need it the most.

Indeed, never has the supply of multilateral solutions been so scarce and demand for them so high. Every day we see how narrow nationalism and strategic rivalries, especially between the United States and China, are paralysing the UN Security Council and the wider international system. From climate change and arms control to maritime security, human rights and beyond, global cooperation has been weakened, international agreements abandoned, and international law undermined or selectively applied.

For Europeans, this is deeply unsettling. But the unfolding crisis of multilateralism is not a problem only for Europeans: everyone’s security and rights are in jeopardy. Phrases like the ‘multilateral system’ and ‘the rules-based international order’ seem vague and lack the ring of ‘America first’ or ‘take back control’. But they stand for something very concrete and real: the choice between peace and war, between free societies and closed ones, and between an economy built on sustainable development and one that fuels widening inequalities and runaway climate change.

A world governed by agreed rules is the very basis of our shared security, freedoms and prosperity. A rules-based international order makes states secure, keeps people free and companies willing to invest, and ensures that the earth’s environment is protected. The alternative—‘might makes right’—has been tried for most of human history, and its horrific record is the best argument for the multilateral system. Unfortunately, it is increasingly being tried again, with the results visible to all.

This is not the approach of the EU. We will continue to believe in and support the UN. We do so not just rhetorically, but also politically and financially, as well as diplomatically, by trying to act as a bridge-builder in the Security Council.

When others were trying to pull apart the World Health Organization at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, it was the EU that led the negotiations resulting in an agreement to set up an independent inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus. We are also the biggest donor to the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility (COVAX), established to ensure that the world gets a reliable vaccine as soon as possible and that it is treated as a global public good.

The EU pays a quarter of the UN budget. It’s often said that Europe punches below its weight geopolitically. But in terms of multilateral engagement, it finances well above its weight.

With our crisis-management operations, we work hand in hand with the UN on stabilisation and reconstruction in many conflict zones, from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, and from to the Balkans to the Middle East. In the toughest war zones and humanitarian crises, you will find the EU and the UN working together.

Europeans have pushed hard for an international climate agreement and do our best to keep it alive. We are relentless in trying to protect biodiversity, access to clean water, and other natural resources.

For us, these contributions are investments in global security and prosperity—and thus in our own security and prosperity. We know that we can be safe, healthy and secure only if our neighbours are too. What is true of individuals is also true of countries.

Even if we face strong headwinds, the EU will stay the course in support of finding common solutions. This if often difficult and tiring, but we are always ready to discuss how to make the system more effective, more legitimate and more fit for purpose; both with like-minded partners and those with whom we disagree. Multilateralism today must be different from that of the 20th century: power has shifted and the challenges are no longer the same.

Much of what will shape our future—cyberspace, data analytics, artificial intelligence, biogenetics, autonomous vehicles and much else—is emerging in a regulatory vacuum. We must fill it with agreed rules, norms and standards, and ensure they are applied—including in contexts where the major stakeholders are not governments.

The EU’s bottom line is this: reform should take place by design, not by destruction. We must revitalise the system, not abandon it. So, this week and beyond, we will uphold the spirit of the UNGA and defend multilateralism, which all countries so badly need. A world without the UN would endanger us all.

The United Nations and Australia’s place in it

Watching mob violence in the streets of America, I recalled an encounter in Kosovo in 1999. Driving through the country one day in a UN vehicle, I stopped at the house of a man who, some months before, had been dragged from his house by Serbian paramilitaries and made to kneel on the dusty road and was poised for execution in front of his seven daughters.

It was at the height of the civil war in Kosovo, and the Kosovo Liberation Army and Serbian authorities were embittered foes. The shrill politics of extremes and the whip of war had already unravelled most of former Yugoslavia. Kosovo was the last chapter, and both sides were exacting revenge. Some of the same Serbian paramilitary groups that had committed crimes in Bosnia were marauding in the restive Yugoslav province.

A jeep-load of regular Serbian soldiers rounded the corner. An officer dismounted, arranged his men gun to gun against the paramilitaries and arrested the would-be executioner. ‘That soldier saw me for who I am’, said the man, while his daughters listened on. The Serbian officer hadn’t seen him as an Albanian, but as a father, a farmer and a man. That simple statement sits in sharp contrast to the multiplying tribalisms of pre-election America in 2020.

Moreover, the sentiments of this discreet scene are reflected in and magnified by the 20th century’s most edifying and vital document, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights—the founding ethical and legal tenet of our times. International law that has flowed from the declaration has served as a guarantor of safety and peace for billions of people, despite regular flouting by dictators and génocidaires. Our first rule, the foundation of the modern life, is that we see each other as human.

Australia was one of eight nations that negotiated and drafted the declaration under our chief negotiator, H.V. ‘Doc’ Evatt. There were also a Lebanese, a Chilean and a Russian (72 years ago, it was all men). China’s negotiator, Peng Chun Chang, believed that Europe’s Enlightenment philosophers and the notion of the universality of rights were in part the intellectual sprigs of the Confucian philosopher Mencius.

We forget that the UN was the child of humankind’s bloodiest conflict. The world was exhausted by the Second World War and the excesses of totalitarianism (Mao was still to come), so the UN was a liberal enterprise constructed to deal with matters of hard power through consensus and what the political philosopher Joseph Nye eventually termed ‘soft’ power. As the UN’s second secretary-general, Dag Hammarskjöld, famously said, the UN ‘was not created to take mankind to heaven, but to save humanity from hell’.

Lots of Australians have continued to work for the UN. On the ground and at the sharp end of that work, it’s often dangerous. My UN colleagues have been harassed, shot at, assaulted, bombarded, expelled, humiliated, raped and murdered. I’ve lost colleagues in accidents and to bombs, and one was strangled in his bed. Hammarskjöld died in a plane crash on a peace mission in Congo in 1961. We laud our armed forces, but almost never our unarmed forces, of which Australia has thousands already deployed.

The UN is a Tower of Babel, with all that that implies. Engaged in matters of soaring ambition, often you might labour prosaically alongside people with jarring cultures, or accents you don’t understand, or whose systems of government you fundamentally oppose. Yet, in conditions of stress and shared enterprise, great friendships are formed, lasting alliances are forged and a sense of human solidarity is amplified.

The UN’s bureaucracy is a network of improbable complexity. It’s easy to sneer at and very often frustrating, but, despite the towering aspiration of this malformed creature, it does produce gold. More than 100,000 troops serve in 14 peacekeeping missions. Agencies such as UNICEF, the High Commissioners for Refugees and Human Rights and the World Food Programme temper the misery of the most vulnerable.

The UN is the jack-of-all-trades repairperson we don’t like to think about. As with assumptions about electricity or water flows, or the absence of diseases like polio or smallpox, we ignore the power cables and pipes until the taps run dry and the lights go off, as it might have if the World Health Organization hadn’t largely functioned to coordinate a global response to Covid-19. In a world where the old pillars of vertical power alone are creaking with obsolescence and complex juvenile networks soak power up, the UN remains the best place to tackle global affairs.

Former Foreign Minister Gareth Evans knew the weaknesses and ‘exhilarating’ strengths of the UN. He helped negotiate what he called the most robust arms-control treaty on weapons of mass destruction—the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention. After genocides in Rwanda, Srebrenica and Darfur, he was a proponent of the ‘responsibility to protect’ doctrine that, in theory (as Syria sadly demonstrates), is a red line when rulers try to eradicate their own people. International laws and norms protect us through the very act of negotiating those laws, as well as mutual vigilance over their observance.

Foreign Minister Marise Payne’s recent speeches flag a renewed Australian commitment to the UN. This reflects the pandemic’s revelation of our complex, interwoven global fragility, from our systems of health, welfare, security, transnational business (including our university industry), communications, pleasure-seeking and government to the fragility of our own bodies. Neat post–Cold War assumptions about a world order crafted from neoliberal economic and political triumphalism are dead.

Those assumptions were a bad and simplistic bet, and now we pay the debt. Two decades of expeditionary warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan that excluded a rising China and a moribund Russia bled the US of wealth and credibility. It also obscured the sickening of the international system we thought we knew. Yet America’s reaction to a bloodied nose and diminishing economic and military power while China rises and Russia rebounds has been a corroded commitment to the UN. That vacuum has been logically filled by China, now the UN’s second largest contributor, with a new influence in agencies such as the WHO.

Michael Ignatieff, the Canadian politician and intellectual, has said that the political question is always, ‘Who will protect me now?’ In an exponentially complex world, how do those of us distracted by raising children and paying mortgages answer that? Newly risen populists exploit the Ignatieff question and our distraction with a facile bait and switch. Because no single government can provide solutions to universal complexity, populists bait us with fear of our present and switch in a fear of other tribes. Fear leads to the politics of extremity as we stop seeing people for who they are.

Australia has much to gain from a robust UN and much to lose from its impairment. To use just one example of complex challenges, the world must have refreshed migrant and refugee agreements that account for huge and permanent flows of displaced people in the 21st century, which is quite different from the era of refugee treaty instruments of 70 years ago. Australia must balance the management of our sovereign borders and the intakes we need to keep us prosperous with our liberal humanist obligations to those we recognise as equally human, but out of luck.

Covid-19 is just a single adverse event. Unlike the misfortune of an earthquake, a three-month fire season, a tsunami or low-level Middle East wars, this once-in-a-century event has provided fresh insight into the complex civilisational impact that a contagion of greater transmissibility and lethality, or a solar flare or asteroid, or an epic nuclear disaster, or a human-made bacteriological or chemical storm (such as the widespread dispersal of Russia’s chemical agent Novichok) would have on life on earth.

The relatively moderate impact of Covid-19 has alerted us that our neatly organised lives can be switched off in a blink. The great post-pandemic challenge will be to build new resilience into the globalised systems of consensus—the ‘rules-based order’—that we increasingly rely on to physically protect us. This encompasses agreements on nuclear weapons proliferation, climate change, international crime and extremism, space and cyber warfare, corruption and finance, water resources, fishing, and virtual propaganda battles fought over social media outlets that leave our very grasp of reality spinning.

A sense of reality in a complex world is critical. Good propaganda, as Nye once said, is not propaganda, and power and resilience in the 21st century are closely related to ‘whose story wins’. You can’t speak authentically of peace when you promote war, or free trade when you stymie it, or human rights when you cage your own populations en masse. People will eventually call you out. Middle-power countries of modest ambition, whose rhetoric is matched by fact, must constrain our leviathan trade and alliance partners through multilateral organisations in order to shape the world for our own security.

Australia is a UN poster child with a winning story, and it’s not just about Kylie Minogue or Paul Hogan. Our story is about an authentic 21st-century national resilience, as evidenced by our systemic and political management of the Covid-19 contagion. This resilience includes luck, such as iron ore deposits, but also consensus politics spawned by our social temperament, an educated population, a great health system, a first-class bureaucracy, and the fruits of an immigration flow that has fuelled our economy and hardwired us to every other continent. We’re close to what we preach.

Yet we also lag. Australia has a huge corps of Australians who have quietly and expertly built resilience into the international system over decades. Yet this highly trained network is unmapped, scattered and currently untapped for its collective soft-power intelligence and sharp-power impact. In the dozens of conflict and disaster zones I’ve been involved with through multiple UN agencies, I was contacted just once by an Australian embassy when there was a perceived and very public threat to life.

In this line of work, you find yourself exposed to disease, thirst, mischance and lots of people with twitchy trigger fingers, but working for the UN or in the multiplying international agencies such as ActionAid or the International Rescue Committee is not an act of altruism. You’re the face of your country, at a coalface of international cooperation, performing exciting work, imbued with meaning, and often with real and immediate impact on lives out of luck.

Less understood is the impact this work has on global resilience and, ultimately, the safety, security and resilience of the Australian homeland.

Shaping from within: a UN with Chinese characteristics?

Chinese President Xi Jinping is urging China to ‘lead the reform of the global governance system’ and to ‘actively participate in the formulation of international rules’. Such statements suggest that we now should be able to gain better insight into Beijing’s vision for the world order. What can we learn from its efforts to reshape how the United Nations operates?

China’s active engagement is evident within many well-established international organisations, and it has created new global and regional institutions. But the UN is a particular focus of Chinese attention. Over the past five or so years, Beijing has provided the UN with significant resources and—as its confidence and influence grows—now seeks higher-level positions within the secretariat and in specialised agencies. It is also working to shape UN norms and procedures.

These efforts have increased alongside the UN’s evolution into an organisation that promotes a redefinition of security to include human protective elements such as the protection of civilians in armed conflict, the ‘responsibility to protect’, and the shielding of those who endure conflict-related sexual violence.

This multilateral setting does impose structural and image-related constraints on China’s behaviour. The UN has an interdependent three-pillar structure comprising international peace and security, development and human rights. As UN secretaries-general constantly declare, attention to all three elements is the best means of achieving the organisation’s core objectives—and that formulation is difficult to overturn. A China that seeks to resist or change the balance among these three interdependent elements has its work cut out.

Beijing’s main method of addressing UN attachment to the three-pillar approach is mobilising support for an alternative triadic model. This model accords a central role to strengthening the government in power, promoting domestic social stability and focusing on long-term economic development as the ‘master key to solving all problems’, as Xi put it in 2017. Compared with the UN formulation, this most obviously downplays attention to human rights.

China promotes this model rhetorically and increasingly by behaviour. Beijing articulates positions that support a more traditional perspective on security and a narrow interpretation of which events constitute a threat to international peace and security. It would prefer to restrict the range of items that make it onto the Security Council agenda. In Beijing’s view, the Security Council should follow the principle of ‘national ownership’ by addressing accountability issues through domestic judicial institutions and seeking host state consent before any external intervention.

China’s promotion of social stability manifests itself in statements that indicate it is the duty of governments to maintain public order, that social media needs to be controlled and that non-governmental actors need to be ‘guided’ by the government in power.

The development arm of China’s triadic formulation is given particular prominence. Beijing argues for a structural focus on economic development as the root cause of conflict. It perceives this as essential in UN attempts to prevent, manage or resolve conflict, and so advance human protection.

For Beijing, the UN’s women, peace and security agenda becomes a question of supporting individual states to empower women by increasing their socioeconomic opportunities. In China’s view, UN capacity building for fragile states unable or unwilling to prevent egregious instances of civilian harm should not unduly emphasise reforming the security sector or developing the rule of law and human rights institutions. Instead, it should focus on socioeconomic development and offer the material assistance that the state in question determines is needed.

In the Human Rights Council resolutions that China sponsored between 2017 and 2019, Beijing hammered home its belief that rights are best guaranteed when development is given a foundational role. After economic development is achieved, other rights might eventually flow.

To advance UN member-state support for these beliefs, Beijing leverages its identity as a post-colonial state and its position as the leading economic partner of many UN members. It draws to its side governments that prefer a conservative UN that operates on a constrained interpretation of its core mandate and acts as an inter-state governance organisation. Beijing is also aided by the relative decline in Western influence and the setbacks in enacting the UN’s complex human protection agenda.

Nevertheless, some of these Chinese propositions attract resistance. The argument that economic development is unlikely to be sustained without accountable political institutions and independent national human rights institutions still carries weight. This is reflected in the UN’s 2030 agenda for sustainable development. It is also reinforced by Beijing’s own frequent resort to repressive measures, regular occurrences of social instability in the country, and weaknesses in addressing domestic governance problems during its economic transformation. UN actors recognise that the absence of independent civil society perspectives is detrimental to sustainable outcomes.

China’s attempt to return the UN to a body that reflects a minimalist and pluralist conception of world order remains a complex and arduous task. Its accomplishment would mean a world that draws directly on what Beijing projects as its own experience since ‘reform and opening’—and incidentally would enhance the security of the one-party regime in China itself. For the UN, it would mean reducing the body to a resource rather than a leader or partner in dealing with the serious collective-action problems of our time.

Operational challenges for the women, peace and security agenda in South Sudan

Experience in the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) highlights many of the operational challenges in implementing the UN’s agenda of women, peace and security (WPS). As I reflected on my recent UNMISS deployment as a military gender adviser, two critical aspects came to the fore: the UN’s credibility challenge in advocating for women’s participation in peacebuilding, and the tensions between fulfilling a mandate to protect civilians and supporting the implementation of a peace agreement that increases the risks to women and girls.

South Sudan became independent in 2011, following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended 20 years of civil war in Sudan. UNMISS was then established to succeed the UN Mission in Sudan, but in 2013 violence quickly re-emerged between the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement, led by President Salva Kiir and comprising mainly ethnic Dinka fighters, and the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), led by former vice president Riek Machar and with mainly Nuer fighters. A power-sharing peace agreement was signed in August 2015 but failed when heavy fighting broke out again in July 2016 in the capital, Juba.

The 2015 agreement was revitalised in September 2018. It provided for a quota of 35% women’s participation in the implementation committees and was signed by Amer Manyok Deng as the representative of the women’s bloc. The quota reflects ‘the importance of [women’s] equal participation and full involvement’ in peacebuilding and ‘the need to increase their role in decision-making’, which was stressed in UN Security Council resolution 1325 (2000). Implementation of the quota has been slow, although Angelina Teny, for the SPLM-IO, chaired the Defence and Security Committee from late 2018.

UNMISS’s mandate gives it four main tasks: to protect civilians, to create conditions conducive to the delivery of humanitarian assistance, to monitor and investigate human rights violations, and, currently, to support the implementation of the revitalised peace agreement. In advocating for the 35% women’s participation quota in that agreement, however, the UN has created a significant credibility challenge for itself that’s apparent to local authorities and communities.

The UNMISS civilian component has 26% women, the police approximately 20%, and the military only 4%. At the leadership level, despite the appointment of Police Commissioner Unaisi Vuniwaqa (Fiji), women’s participation is lower again. Only one female military contingent commander has served in UNMISS (Lieutenant Colonel Katie Hislop, British Engineering Task Force 2017). Anecdotally, there are few military women in roles that are visible to the local population and in senior operational planning or staff roles, and their overall visibility to the local community as part of UNMISS is more limited than that of men serving in the mission.

The UN’s uniformed gender parity strategy focuses on increasing the proportion of women in missions, but its numerical approach gives insufficient weight to where and how women are employed. This negates the Security Council’s assertions that deploying more women increases community engagement and the mission’s ability to implement the WPS agenda. Rather than just percentages, emphasis also needs to be placed on deploying women into visible UNMISS decision-making roles, particularly at colonel level and above. A force leadership that normalises female participation provides a credible basis for advocacy, as well as a model for contributing militaries that don’t yet have their own senior female officer cohort.

Operationalising women’s participation is more than a practical challenge for WPS and reflects on mission credibility. A similar challenge arises for UNMISS for the protection of civilians, which is another pillar of WPS and a key mandated task.

UNMISS’s responsibility to protect civilians specifically includes the protection of women and children from conflict-related sexual violence. Campaigns of such violence have continued following the peace agreement, including a reported mass rape near Bentiu in September–December 2018. Importantly for operational planning, an investigation by UNMISS and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights found that the risk factors for organised sexual violence in Bentiu included large numbers of fighters in ‘stand-by’ mode awaiting the implementation of the peace agreement and the presence of armed youth militias. Those risks are likely to increase further when the cantonment of forces proceeds as part of the peace implementation. Thus, the processes that were intended to facilitate peace between the main security actors have increased the risk of violence for others. Counterintuitively, as violence between some armed groups decreased with the peace agreement, the risk of sexual violence against civilians went up.

It’s difficult for UNMISS to reconcile its mandates both to protect the population from sexual violence and to support the implementation of the peace agreement. This problem has been compounded by the fact that the perpetrators include government forces that are parties to the agreement. An added level of complexity is the persistent denial of UNMISS freedom of movement by government forces, which was criticised in Security Council resolution 2459 (2019). The UN’s 2013 policy on human rights due diligence only partially addresses this problem by requiring peacekeepers to avoid supporting human rights violators in their operations.

It’s particularly difficult to strike an operational balance between these competing tasks when UNMISS’s mandate offers limited direction beyond requiring the mission to prioritise the protection of civilians in the use of resources. The risk is that the security of women and girls is subordinated to the implementation of the peace agreement on the assumption that their short- to medium-term increased risk will be reduced in the longer term if peace is achieved—but when the implementation of the gender-specific aspects of the agreement is also slow, that mitigation seems increasingly unhelpful.

While these challenges are significant, it shouldn’t be assumed that they undermine the relevance or utility of WPS, although they do call for creative approaches and an explicit balancing of mandate interests in the pursuit of peace and security for all.

Will there be one ASEAN voice on cyber?

ASEAN, the common refrain goes, moves slowly, especially on sensitive issues that touch on sovereignty and security, where the pace of consensus-forming adjusts to fit the comfort level of the most hesitant member state.

Nowhere is this more true than when it comes to cyber issues. Member states approach cyber from various angles: telecommunications, internal security, information technology and law enforcement, to name a few. Consider the ASEAN Ministerial Conference on Cybersecurity (AMCC) held in Singapore during International Cyber Week in September: countries were represented by ministers or senior officials from a whole range of portfolios—cybersecurity (Singapore), communications (Malaysia, Laos, Brunei), digital economy (Thailand), information security (Vietnam) and home affairs (Cambodia).

Given the myriad lenses through which the issues are viewed, it’s easy to underappreciate what ASEAN achieved over the course of 2018 in the cyber realm. The April 2018 leaders’ statement on cybersecurity cooperation tasked relevant bodies to identify a concrete list of non-binding, practical norms of state behaviour. The ministerial conference followed up in September, reaching an agreement in principle that international law, norms of state behaviour (with specific reference to the voluntary, non-binding norms recommended in the 2015 report of the UN Group of Governmental Experts on developments in information and telecommunications in the context of international security, or UN GGE for short), and practical confidence-building measures are essential for stability in cyberspace. Some of these gains can trace their lineage directly to the roadmap of the 2017 ASEAN cybersecurity cooperation strategy, which had at its heart a focus on norms, cooperation and capacity-building.

The discussion platforms of choice also now seem to have resolved themselves. It’s now clear that the AMCC will be the key ASEAN platform for discussing cyber matters. Other platforms—such as the ASEAN Regional Forum Inter-sessional Meeting on Security of and in the Use of ICT, and the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus Experts’ Working Group Meeting on Cyber Security—will be the critical forums for engaging external partners.

A key facet of cyber cooperation, and one in which tangible progress is being made, is in upskilling, levelling up and knowledge transfer. There’s an acute need for this given the differing levels of resourcing among members states. Myanmar’s CERT, for example, had just five people in 2017. (A CERT is a national computer emergency response (or readiness) team.)

While CERT–CERT cooperation will remain to some degree behind the scenes, in the coming years we should expect to hear more on the progress of the ASEAN CERT maturity framework, which provides a common blueprint to assess the maturity of national CERTs. Other key mechanisms include the S$10 million ASEAN Cyber Capacity Programme (launched by Singapore in 2016), which aims to boost cybersecurity know-how across the region. Under the program’s aegis, the Singapore–ASEAN Cybersecurity Centre of Excellence will be launched in 2019. The centre will in turn presumably find ways to harmonise its efforts with the Bangkok-based ASEAN–Japan Cybersecurity Capacity Building Centre, launched in September 2018.

But beyond the high politics of cyber dialogue and the nuts and bolts of technical cooperation, there are pressing questions in terms of how ASEAN members view their digital futures. Many countries struggling with cyberattacks, fake news or disinformation campaigns may be remaking their regulatory regimes through the prism of cyber as a threat vector. Vietnam’s cybersecurity law, which took effect on 1 January, is aimed ostensibly at preventing cyberattacks. It bans internet users from spreading ‘anti-state’ information, and has been criticised by some observers as totalitarian. Thailand’s cybersecurity bill, which passed in February, has general clauses pertaining to the authorities’ right to seize data and equipment.

The trifecta—viewing cyber from the perspectives of opportunity, data protection, and information control—is a source of continual tension. Nations need to be able to hold these tensions and to assess and act in a balanced way. If the balance is lost, countries might simply remake themselves in a more totalitarian way in order to protect themselves.

These tensions will inevitably affect states’ positions when it comes to the debate on international cyber norms. ASEAN leaders have given a nod to the importance of the UN GGE norms, but there’s a competing vision: an open-ended working group, sponsored by Russia, is also working within the UN to develop cyber norms. Russian attempts to secure buy-in have been canny, referencing inclusiveness, and participation in norms-shaping. The working group may in the end be more attractive to many nations than the UN GGE simply because it seems to give more of a nod to countries’ concerns about information security and fake news.

There are no easy answers, and discussions over coming months on, and in, the concurrent UN processes will say much. It should be observed here that track 2 mechanisms for cyber, which seem to have taken something of a backseat in ASEAN, do have a role. Informal dialogues can allow member states to share challenges and ideas openly, and help to build shared understandings. An example is the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific, or CSCAP. Think tanks working on these issues can take the lessons from such meetings to inform and guide their stakeholders. And the field shouldn’t be limited to ASEAN nations. Think tanks further afield with well-thought-out cyber engagement strategies can, when they have knowledge of ASEAN states’ concerns and sensitivities, play a useful role in the norms-shaping debate at the track 2 level.

Member states now clearly want to have an ASEAN voice in the international cyber norms conversation. But how coherent or unified that voice will be likely is dependent on three things: an appreciation of internal cyber threats without being consumed by them, a nuanced awareness of the agendas and power plays within the international cyber norms debate, and a clear-headed drive to look to the best ideas in the field, whether they come from within or outside of ASEAN.

Reviewing Australian support for the Iran nuclear deal: principles and trust

On 17 October, the Morrison government announced a review of Australia’s support for the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to determine whether it remains ‘fit for purpose’. There are compelling reasons for Australia to continue to support the deal, and significant implications if it does not.

Three fundamental bipartisan foreign-policy principles of successive Australian governments are a firm commitment to the rules-based international order, the United Nations, and the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The JCPOA intersects with all of them.

Signed in July 2015 and implemented in January 2016, the JCPOA is an international arms control agreement, endorsed by the UN Security Council as resolution 2231. As such, it falls very clearly within the parameters of the rules-based international order. And while Australia isn’t a signatory to the JCPOA (the original signatories were the US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the EU), it is a party to the deal through its membership of the UN.

The non-proliferation-related objectives of the JCPOA were to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability, both for the duration of the deal and beyond. Its control mechanisms, most of which are subject to agreed sunset periods of between 10 and 25 years, include regular and comprehensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency and built-in safeguards which ensure that Iran neither has, nor is able to acquire, the quantity or quality of uranium, or the physical means of enriching that uranium, to make a nuclear weapon.

Notwithstanding the limitations of agreed sunset clauses, the JCPOA also includes in its preamble and general provisions Tehran’s explicit reaffirmation ‘that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons’.

The explicit reciprocity within the deal for Iran’s compliance was the lifting of a wide range of sanctions by the UN, and especially the EU and US, covering trade, finance and investment. On implementation, Australia, like other non-signatories, also lifted its UN-related sanctions.

What the deal doesn’t include is mandatory restrictions on Iran’s development of ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. These are voluntary. Nor does it include any provisions relating to Iran’s non-nuclear military activities, regionally or elsewhere.

As a package, all of the original signatories and the UN regarded the JCPOA and its objectives and control mechanisms as ‘fit for purpose’. But like all agreements, its functionality and durability are underpinned by trust.

Iran has not breached that trust. Its compliance with its obligations has been repeatedly verified by the IAEA during all inspections since the JCPOA’s implementation, despite US President Donald Trump’s announcement of his country’s withdrawal from the deal in May and the progressive imposition of old and new sanctions by Washington in August and November. Iran has voluntarily capped the range of its ballistic missiles at 2,000 kilometres, which is consistent with its perceived regional threats.

And despite the severe challenge to the JCPOA from Trump, all the other signatories have so far upheld their obligations under the agreement. In their joint statement on 24 September, the UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and the EU agreed to implement legal and other means to try to normalise trade and investment with Iran and minimise the effects of US sanctions on legitimate businesses, to the maximum extent possible.

From an Australian policy perspective, the changes to the agreement that Trump has demanded are not minor. He has significantly moved the goal posts. He wants the sunset clauses to be removed, tougher compliance monitoring by the IAEA to ensure Iran can never develop a nuclear weapons capability, and mandatory restrictions on Iran’s missile program to eliminate any possible development of nuclear-capable long-range ballistic missiles. The last of these demands is widely seen as also seeking to control Iran’s conventional missile capability.

An added sting in Trump’s sanctions regime is the implementation of punitive measures against countries and businesses that continue to do business legally with Iran. Australian companies are among those that could be affected. A further complication of these sanctions for Australia is the negative effect on broader alliance relations, including America’s ties with Europe and the UK.

Trump’s new demands that Iran must cease what he has described as its malign and destabilising activities in the Middle East and elsewhere are unrelated to the JCPOA’s original objectives. These demands were first detailed by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in his remarks to the Heritage Foundation in May. They are universally seen as an unrealistic wish list.

Trump’s concerns cut across an internationally endorsed agreement focused on non-proliferation objectives. They have breached the trust of other signatories, and are collectively seen as divisive and unrealistic. Some EU sources believe that Trump’s demands are largely intended as a lesson for North Korea in the hope of some transactional compromise. Reportedly, former US secretary of state John Kerry is being pursued by multiple parties as a broker in the search for any compromise. However, what Washington is currently demanding of Tehran is not seen as proportional or fit for purpose.

Given that the JCPOA is consistent with Australia’s foreign policy objectives, and provided the current signatories continue to meet their obligations, it’s difficult to envisage what the Australian government might see as a realistic alternative. To abandon support for the JCPOA in present circumstances would be inconsistent with Australia’s established foreign policy practice.

It would also raise questions of motive and reliability. Internationally, for example, would Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries see any such change as separate from the Jerusalem embassy issue? Australia would also need to weigh up very carefully the implications of such a change on its relations with other JCPOA signatories, including the EU itself and EU member states.

Whatever the outcome of the review, Australia’s principles and trust should not be compromised.

Policy, Guns and Money: Episode 5

In this podcast our analysts discuss the debate around nuclear submarines for Australia, lessons learned from the US for an Australian cyber force, emerging biosecurity threats and how we can prepare for them and who’s been saying what at the United Nations General Assembly. You can view links to the articles mentioned in this week’s episode here.

Standing up for the UN

It was the autumn of 2001, sometime between the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States and US President George W. Bush’s invasion of Afghanistan. I was walking through Venice with Richard C. Holbrooke, who had been the US ambassador to the United Nations under President Bill Clinton. Holbrooke’s mobile phone rang. On the line was UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Holbrooke had expected the call. He and Annan spoke with the warm confidence born of their cooperation during Clinton’s second term. Annan, a kind of civilian pope, had forged a partnership with Holbrooke, the master diplomat who had been instrumental in ending the Bosnian War. It was a partnership that both men considered to be essential for global peace and stability.

This cooperative dynamic went beyond Annan and Holbrooke. The UN, as the quintessential symbol of international legitimacy and the rule of law, and the US, as the embodiment of pragmatic power and force, had a kind of alliance. As we mourn the recent death of Annan, perhaps we should also mourn that alliance—and, more fundamentally, the decimation of the UN’s global standing since Annan’s departure in 2007.

Annan was not perfect, and his career included tragedies and mistakes. In the mid-1990s, when he was serving as the UN’s under-secretary-general for peacekeeping, massacres occurred in Rwanda and, subsequently, Bosnia, because UN forces failed to fulfil their responsibility to protect. Annan took no meaningful responsibility for that failure.

Nonetheless, Annan possessed a combination of charisma, elegance, eloquence and self-control that was decisive in maintaining the visibility and legitimacy of the primus inter pares of international organisations. None of his successors has been able to offer these vital qualities, including António Guterres, who took the helm last year. Indeed, despite Guterres’s many positive attributes, the fact is that the UN has all but disappeared from the international radar screen since he took over.

The world stands on the precipice of a kind of chaos not seen since the end of World War II. Increasingly brazen attacks on multilateralism and the international rule of law threaten to destroy the postwar global system that was created—with the UN as its vital pillar—to ensure that history would not repeat itself.

Nowadays, the US has emerged as the UN’s chief detractor. In President Donald Trump’s view, the UN is useless at best. After all, it stands for multilateralism and the rule of law, whereas Trump advocates bilateral deal-making and the rule of force.

Russia is also challenging the UN’s role, albeit to a lesser extent. In March, Russia blocked a meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the human-rights catastrophe in Syria. But, in a sense, the Kremlin’s move actually reflects the enduring perception that the UN does still have some influence.

One world power that has emerged as a somewhat surprising backer of the UN is China. Unlike Trump’s US, China recognises that the UN can serve as a platform for it to assert global influence, while building up its soft power. As a result, China has become the third-largest contributor to the UN’s regular budget and the second-largest contributor to its peacekeeping budget. China has even pledged thousands of personnel to UN peacekeeping operations, indicating a commitment to global security.

But to restore the UN’s standing and influence to the level it attained under Annan will require stronger support from Europe—in particular, France and Germany—alongside at least two other influential liberal democracies, perhaps Canada to represent North America and Japan to represent Asia.

Of course, critics will express their doubts. If France and Germany can barely manage any progress in the European context, how can they be expected to lead the world back towards multilateralism and the rule of law? Canada cannot expect to represent North America over the powerful US. And Japan is an ageing, if not decaying, society.

But what is the alternative? If these liberal democracies—which do wield their share of soft power—remain passive, the international order will continue to weaken, potentially to the point that it is shaped primarily by brute force, rather than diplomacy, cooperation or the rule of law.

Together, however, these countries can try to arrest the decay of international institutions and prevent the world from falling back into the systemic violence of the past. If American voters, as seems likely, take away the Republicans’ majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections in November, the chances of saving the international order will be even higher.

A collapse into chaos is more likely today than at any point in the last 70 years. But it is not inevitable. We may not have a secretary-general with Annan’s gifts, but we can and must continue to fight for the world order that he helped to build.