Japan navigates a course through Trump-era shoals
Japan’s relationship with the new Trump administration is off to not a bad start: so far, the two countries are agreeing on more than they are disagreeing.
The big development in the relationship since Donald Trump’s inauguration has been Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s meeting with him on 7 February.
Before the visit, there were several apprehensions. Those included Ishiba’s shaky political position at home, China’s status as Japan’s largest trading partner, former president Joe Biden’s blocking of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel, the persistent threat from North Korea and Trump’s unpredictable approach to Kim Jong-un.
Against this backdrop, Ishiba faced the difficult task of aligning Japan’s strategic priorities with the Trump administration’s policy positions, such as the imposition of tariffs, withdrawal from the World Health Organization, sanctions against the International Criminal Court, and controversial claims over Gaza, Greenland and the Panama Canal. A challenge for Ishiba was to address those issues in a manner that best served Japan’s national interests, while simultaneously building a personal rapport with Trump—similar to the relationship former prime minister Shinzo Abe cultivated—by adopting a conciliatory approach without compromising Japan’s interests.
It appears Ishiba played his cards well. From the outset, he met Trump’s expectations by pledging to increase Japanese investment in the United States to US$1 trillion. This commitment, particularly in the automotive sector, will not only support Trump’s ‘Made in America’ agenda but also create thousands of job opportunities.
Additionally, Ishiba offered to rebalance trade relations by increasing imports of US liquefied natural gas, conforming with a Trump-endorsed slogan, ‘Drill, baby, drill.’ He also skilfully negotiated the previously blocked Nippon Steel investment, agreeing to a compromise whereby the US will retain a majority stake.
Geopolitically, the two leaders agreed on their continuous commitments to a free and open Indo-Pacific, assuring the continuity of Abe’s foreign policy. Japan’s 2022 announcement to double its military spending by 2027, in response to the perceived threat from China and North Korea, aligned with Trump’s tough stance on Beijing—although the level of spending may not satisfy the Trump administration, which demands that NATO members contribute a minimum of 5 percent of GDP. The continued stationing of 54,000 US military personnel in Japan also sent a positive signal of the solid bilateral alliance.
During the meeting, Ishiba cautiously skirted around some of Trump’s other controversial policies—such as the US withdrawal from the World Health Organization, sanctions against the International Criminal Court, and territorial ambitions in Greenland and the Panama Canal. Those issues hold long-term significance for Japan, but do not require immediate action.
Notwithstanding those identified convergences, Japan has to face challenges and difficult decisions in the coming months. A major strategic dilemma for Japan will be balancing rules-based and merit-based approaches.
For instance, the US claims of ‘ownership’ of Gaza may contradict Japan’s support for a two-state solution. In the case of the US-China trade war and the imposition of tariffs, Japan must tread carefully, not only because China remains its largest trading partner and one of its primary investment destinations but also because China has lodged complaints about US tariff measures with the World Trade Organization.
Trump’s proposals to make Canada the 51st US state, gain control over Greenland (an autonomous Danish territory) and reclaim the Panama Canal, combined with China’s ambitions to unify Taiwan with the mainland, present complex challenges. Trump’s possible peace plan for Ukraine should cause concern among those who believe that Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.
While the US-Japan joint statement opposes any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force or coercion, Japan will need to decide whether to draw a parallel between the US and China or adopt a double-standard. Alignment with US territorial claims needs careful legal and political scrutiny within the Japanese government. Diplomatically, such alignment could undermine Japan’s support for a rules-based order, complicating its response to similar attempts by China, Russia or North Korea.
Considering the evolving strategic dynamics, it appears that where Japan’s core interests are concerned it is now time for Japan to display its strategic autonomy. This will prove instrumental in enhancing its credibility in the region and expand the area of cooperation with other partners, such as Australia, India, South Korea and ASEAN members.
At the same time, while strategic autonomy may increase Japan’s policy manoeuvrability, it will be meaningless if it has neither its own principles nor policy alternatives. Regardless of the US policy, Japan’s facilitation of a free and open Indo-Pacific, including through the provision of development assistance and capacity-building based on the interests of recipient states, should not only stabilise regions where the US is expected to reduce its commitment; it should also make Japan a reliable and responsible guardian of the rules-based order.