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Most Australians would say that they are patriotic, proud to be Australian, and proud of their nation’s history, even for all of its shortcomings. True, self-denunciation of the nation and its history is in vogue among the cultural elite that is so well described by Musa al-Gharbi in We Have Never Been Woke: The Cultural Contradictions of a New Elite (2024). However, their long-term agenda of ending the nation’s ‘structural oppression’ and rewriting its colonial-settler history, in the name of ‘social justice’, will never take hold in the community at large.
If the suggested remedy for the historical harms of colonisation—the retelling of the nation’s history, and the pursuit of reparations for those harms—were to be pursued seriously, such action would be rejected by most Australians as being too radical, and an unnecessary distraction from meaningfully addressing the real disadvantage that is experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians.
Rather than engaging in such national self-denunciation, most Australians practise what might be termed ‘soft patriotism’, an intuitive love of country that is ingrained from early childhood, for those born here, or rapidly acquired by those who choose to make Australia their home, first as permanent migrants, and then as new citizens.
Patriotism involves more than going to the beach on a summer’s day on 26 January to celebrate Australia’s national day. It is a love of country. It is an understanding that Australia is not an arbitrary geographical space that happens to be inhabited by randomly selected individuals who lack a connection to one another. It is a cherishing of the nation’s shared heritage, which is the legacy of settlers, pastoralists, farmers, miners, administrators, industrialists, workers, and so many more.
Our institutions of democratic government were shaped by colonial-era founders, who championed the creation of the Commonwealth of Australia in the second half of the 19th century. Our economy was also built on foundations laid in colonial Australia, when endowments such as wool and gold, and access to capital and product markets, led to Australia being one of the richest countries in the world on a per capita basis at Federation in 1901. These and other foundations of the nation will need to be better taught to future generations in an era when historical understanding is in decline.
The patriot also intuitively recognises that being a member of a national political community is the best available means of exercising freedom, democracy, and sovereignty. Maurizio Viroli wrote in For Love of Country: An Essay on Patriotism and Nationalism that patriotism involves a love of the institutions and the way of life that sustains the common liberty of a national people. In a world of sovereign nation-states, we owe no higher loyalty to a global or supranational form of government, to another nation-state, or to any international organisation.
When the Nationality and Citizenship Act 1948 became law on 26 January 1949, it established for the first time the legal status of ‘Australian citizen’. At the first citizenship ceremony, held in Canberra on 3 February 1949, the Minister for Immigration, Arthur Calwell, asked the new citizens to respect the Australian flag, and to swear allegiance to ‘our concepts of government’. He explained that Australian democracy was a means for achieving national progress without the ‘chaotic spectacle of revolutionary disturbances ending in dictatorial minority rule’. He said that faith could be placed in the ‘common-sense and national goodwill of the Australian people’, and that political differences could be resolved peaceably through the nation’s democratic processes. That sentiment is today captured in the Australian citizenship pledge, when new citizens are asked to pledge their loyalty to Australia and its people, to share our belief in democracy, to respect our common rights and liberties, and to uphold and obey Australian laws.
Most Australians embrace this form of patriotism. To call it ‘soft’ is not to diminish it. Rather, it is to suggest that such patriotism is reflexive and relatively cost-free. It is a love of a readily understood ‘idea of Australia’, which does not require much explanation or ideological rationalisation.
There is an altogether different, and more challenging, form of patriotism. ‘Hard patriotism’ has a necessarily martial quality, as it is invariably associated with the defence of the nation. It is today being displayed by Ukrainians, and by Israelis. Hard patriotism challenges us to ask of ourselves: what is to be defended, to the last if necessary, and are we prepared to pay that price?
Hard patriotism cannot be solely expected of our armed forces, although it is intrinsic to the profession of arms, which traditionally have placed a more visible emphasis on duty, honour, service and country. In the event of having to defend the nation, hard patriotism would be required of all. Sacrifice and commitment would be expected from all, subject only to age or incapacity. Hard patriots would need to be found not just in the armed forces, but across a mobilised and resolute population.
Winston Churchill’s ‘darkest hour’ speeches of 1940 are a supreme example of hard patriotism, expressed in magnificently eloquent words. His theme was ‘never surrender’, because he knew that surrender would mean the loss of liberty and sovereignty, and the end of the British way of life. The British people rose to the occasion, as did the Empire, which for a time stood alone against Nazi Germany. Compare this with France. French historian Marc Bloch described in The Strange Defeat—written in 1940 and published posthumously in 1946—how the French were still a patriotic people in 1940. However, after a period of national malaise in the 1930s, which had led to a loss of self-confidence, they were not prepared—strategically or morally—for the Nazi onslaught. Soft, demoralised France fell in 1940, while hard, patriotic Britain fought on. Later, Charles de Gaulle emerged as the hard Free French patriot who restored French honour.
Hard patriotism is the willingness to fight to the end if necessary for three treasured national possessions: freedom, or the liberty to live as we choose, subject only to our own laws; democracy, or our institutions of government that allow us to choose our leaders and lawmakers, and to check abuses of power; and sovereignty, or our capacity to control our territory and resources, and to pursue economic and social development as we see fit, free from external coercion and intimidation.
Australia has no threatening neighbours, or historical enemies. If we did, hard patriotism would be intuitive and reflexive. Instead, for more than two centuries, we have mentally lived in an imagined ‘sheltered land’, far from strife. No matter that the security of our ‘sheltered land’ has been a function of Australia being prepared to fight distant wars (and a close one in 1942-44) against Eurasian powers, thereby assisting first the British Empire, and then the United States, to prevail over aspiring Eurasian hegemons.
Today, we still live in a ‘sheltered land’, at least in our national imagination. In the absence of enemies at the gate, it is hard to appreciate that our way of life might one day be threatened—if not necessarily by invasion, then by other forms of strategic coercion or military attack. Australian strategic and defence policy is not couched in the language of hard patriotism. Even though we appear to be pursuing an implied grand strategy of working with the US and others to prevent Chinese hegemony, it is a strategy that dares not speak its name in those terms—principally so as to not disturb the foreign policy of ‘speaking softly’ and stabilising ties with China, but also to avoid the challenge that would be inherent in building hard patriotism.
Therein lies the problem. Hard patriotism cannot be conjured into being suddenly on the eve of a military crisis, or at the outbreak of a war. Moreso than a significant financial crisis, a serious public health emergency, or a catastrophic natural event, a major war would throw its terrible shadow across society in ways that would require a more far-reaching mobilisation of the nation, and greater sacrifices.
A determined and resolute government could today make the case for hard patriotism, so that we were better prepared for the unlikely but credible prospect of major war. This would require a different discussion between the government and the people. Such a discussion would begin with a more honest explanation of the precarious nature of our strategic circumstances. The ‘sheltered land’ of our national imagination is no more. The Eurasian axis of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea is seriously challenging the US and its allies in the struggle for mastery in Eurasia, and therefore globally. Distance no longer affords us the protection that it once did, as potential adversaries field longer-range weapons, and potent offensive cyber capabilities.
In a more honest discussion, we have to consider the possibility of the emergence of a world where an isolated US, following either military defeat or strategic withdrawal, was either unwilling or unable to extend its protective shield over Australia and other allies. In that world, US forces and facilities would not be present in Australia, and its nuclear forces would not protect us. China would rule the waves of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and its military bases would be in our sea-air approaches, including probably in East Timor, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands.
A hegemonic China would be free to impose its will on Australia, including in relation to trade, investment, resources, energy, and more besides. There would be little that we could do about resisting Chinese pressure, other than to develop significantly larger armed forces and military capabilities in an effort to independently deter a military attack. This would probably have to include an independent nuclear deterrent.
Australia would come under pressure to free up its markets for Chinese investment and acquisition, to drop restrictions on technology access—for instance, regarding 7G and successor technologies—and agree to more China-favourable terms for access to our resources and energy. We would also come under pressure to extradite persons of interest to China, and to ensure that Australian media and public discourse exhibited the ‘correct understanding’ of China and its interests. Local quisling political and business leaders would emerge, who would urge their fellow Australians to ‘adjust’ to the new reality of Chinese supremacy.
To avoid the possibility of such a future, Australia should be doing more to support the US-led deterrence of China, including being prepared to go to war if required to thwart Chinese hegemony. This would require the building of a hard Australian patriotism, the kind that is seen in frontline states that have a threatening neighbour.
In any such war, China would employ advanced methods and techniques to undermine the national will to fight, sow discord among the people, fracture the community, amplify quisling voices, and generally attempt to demoralise the population. Cognitive warfare would be employed, waged over TikTok and the like, using technology-enabled propaganda and disinformation. An early objective would be to have sections of the community question the legitimacy of any such war, or at least Australia’s participation in it. Attempts might even be made to undermine Australia’s very legitimacy, perhaps by emphasising its origin as a European settler-colonial society, an ‘outsider’ in greater Asia, with a shameful, racist past.
China’s President Xi Jinping has made Chinese nationalism a co-equal component, with Marxism, in his overarching ideological framework, as explained by Kevin Rudd in On Xi Jinping: How Xi’s Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World. Chinese strategy mobilises national history and national identity, in competition and in conflict. Nationalism is employed to sustain a dual narrative of China’s re-emerging to its rightful place of international prestige and leadership, and its cultural superiority, relative to the declining West. China would go into any conflict confident and self-assured, not agonising over a supposedly shameful past. National self-confidence would be crucial to success. Like France in 1940, any soft and demoralised nations would lack the will to fight such a war, calculating that yielding to the ascendent power was the more tolerable course.
Political leaders in democracies are invariably focused on the domestic priorities of their citizens. They are measured on their ability to deliver prosperity, and not their ability to wage war, unlike earlier times when waging war was central to the prestige of the state. Issues of statecraft typically hold no interest for parochial citizens. In such an environment, building hard patriotism in the absence of a visible threat is almost impossible. However, leaving it to the coming of darker days would be too late.
True, Australians are likely to unite in a crisis, as was seen in the COVID pandemic and during natural disasters such as the Black Summer of 2019-20. They tend to be trusting of the institutions of government during such crises, even if there is grumbling at inconvenience. However, in those circumstances, governments tend to have more direct levers and a greater power of initiative, such as introducing urgent fiscal stimulus measures, or enforcing strict public health measures. A war fought in defence of the nation would be a more challenging affair. It would require broader and deeper mobilisation, and more directive control being exercised by the federal government, as compared, for instance, with what occurred during the COVID pandemic.
How might a balance be struck between trying to rally a sceptical people too soon, when many are unlikely to see the need, as against trying to build the hard patriotism that would be required in wartime, when it might be too late? One way might be to ask all citizens, perhaps aged 18-65, to affirm annually a ‘pledge of service’, where we would all be asked to register the kind of national service that we would be willing to render in the event of a military emergency involving the defence of the nation. This would not be limited to being willing to take up arms. It would include other categories of service such as medical, construction, logistics, and so on. Establishing such a register, perhaps as a prelude to establishing an Australian national service scheme—solely for the territorial defence of the nation—would form the basis for a very different discussion between the government and the people about the realities of our strategic circumstances.
Pursuing this and other initiatives, such as preparing a War Book, and treating national security like the national budget—through an annual, prime-time, national security statement to the nation—would better prepare the people for what are said to be the worst strategic circumstances since the Second World War. A harder patriotism would build steadily, as the people began to appreciate the stakes, and the potential sacrifices that might have to be made in order to protect all that we cherish about Australia. Unfortunately, Australia is no longer a ‘sheltered land’, and the times call for a new Australian patriotism.
Greater alignment between Australia and South Korea in critical technologies would produce significant strategic benefit to both countries and the Indo-Pacific. Overlapping and complex regional challenges, such as climate change, economic shocks and pandemics, underscore the need for international cooperation in critical technologies
Although these technologies have a range of beneficial social, economic and security outcomes, they are increasingly being deployed by regional adversaries for malign purposes, including espionage, cyberattacks and spreading disinformation. This is particularly alarming for many countries in the region amid intensified geostrategic competition.
The latest data from ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker highlights challenges posed by technological advancements by emphasising the shift in technology leadership from the US to China over the past two decades. The tracker shows that China is now the leading country for high-impact research on critical technologies.
Enhanced collaboration between likeminded Indo-Pacific partners can counter China’s edge in technological research. ASPI’s new report recommends coordination and cooperation between Australia and South Korea in critical technologies, as the two regional powers have complementary technologies and are committed to upholding the US-led rules-based order.
In this report, we examine bilateral technological collaboration through the framework of four stages common to technological life cycles (innovation, research and development; building blocks for manufacturing; testing and application; standards and norms) and four corresponding critical technologies of joint strategic interest to both Australia and South Korea (biotechnologies, electric batteries, satellites and artificial intelligence).
Using this framework, we provide policy recommendations for Australian and South Korean government, research and industry stakeholders. We outline how they can build cooperation in the areas of biotechnology-related research and development, battery materials manufacturing, satellite launches and artificial intelligence (AI) standards-setting.
First, long-term exchanges between key R&D institutions will facilitate knowledge-sharing in the field of biotechnologies, a field relevant to both countries’ goals to become regional clinical trial hubs. We suggest that the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and the Korea Research Institute of Bioscience and Biotechnology lead this initiative.
Second, due to Australia’s abundance of critical minerals and South Korea’s desire to elevate its capacity to manufacture electric batteries, battery material manufacturers from both countries should collaborate in the joint production of such battery materials as lithium hydroxide and precursor cathode active materials. Although the POSCO-Pilbara Minerals plant is an existing example of a joint factory operating South Korea, we highlight the strategic benefit of building future factories on Australian soil to take advantage of a secure supply of critical minerals.
Third, a streamlined government-to-government agreement will help South Korean companies to take advantage of Australia’s geography for joint satellite launches. This could emulate an agreement between Australia and the US for joint satellite launches. It would make it easier for both Australia and South Korea to collate satellite data for civilian and defence purposes.
Finally, Australian and South Korean stakeholders involved in international standards-setting bodies should align their approaches to ensure that the development and implementation of AI technologies is consistent with both countries’ respective interests. ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 42, a joint subcommittee on AI standards shared by the International Organization for Standardization and the International Electrotechnical Commission, is one recommended mechanism for coordinating the approaches of key Australian and South Korean stakeholders in AI standards.
The current political situation in South Korea may sow doubt in the mind of regional counterparts about its domestic stability and suitability as a partner. However, the quick overturning of martial law showed the robustness of South Korea’s democratic institutions. There may be short-term challenges to bolstering bilateral technological initiatives as the domestic situation continues to evolve, but the long-term trajectory for technological cooperation remains optimistic.
Aside from the economic, innovation and technology pillar of the bilateral Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and the Memorandum of Understanding on Cyber and Critical Technology Cooperation, the two countries are also active in furthering multilateral dialogue relating to critical technologies. Particularly, each country is internationally engaged in for a including the 3rd Generational Partnership Project, International Electrotechnical Commission and Minerals Security Partnership.
Technological cooperation between Australia and South Korea has can be leveraged to address regional challenges. This report serves as a starting point for furthering this cooperation. To ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains safe, secure and stable in the coming decades, now is the time for industry, research and government stakeholders in Australia and South Korea to jointly adopt a much greater and meaningful strategic role in regional technological collaboration.
China is stepping up efforts to force foreign companies to hand over valuable data while strengthening its own defences. Some of the information it’s looking for would give it greater opportunities for espionage or political interference in other countries.
Australia and other countries need to follow the lead of the United States, which on 21 October proposed rules that would regulate and even prohibit transfers of data containing the personal or medical information of its citizens to foreign entities.
Recent developments from inside China support the idea that the country is refocusing on bulk data, both to aid its intelligence operations and to protect itself from potential adversaries.
China has reformed its domestic legal environment to both protect itself and collect information with intelligence value. A new Data Security Law allows Chinese officials to broadly define ‘core state’ data and ‘important’ data while also banning any company operating inside China from providing data stored in China to overseas agencies without government approval. Firms over a certain size must also have a cell of the Chinese Communist Party to more closely integrate ‘Party leadership into all aspects of corporate governance’, including cybersecurity and data management.
The Communist Party’s Central Committee and the State Council have decreed that the National Data Administration will manage every source of public data by 2030.
The Ministry of State Security has prohibited Western companies from receiving geospatial information from Chinese companies and required companies to take down idle devices to reduce the threat of Western espionage. And Chinese nationals will shortly be unable to access the internet without verifying their identity by facial recognition and their national ID number.
In early October, a report by the Irish Council of Civil Liberties (ICCL) exposed the world of real-time bidding data, where the ads displayed when you go online are the result of an automated bidding process based on your browsing history and precise location. The ICCL report raised concerns that these kinds of analytics could identify people’s political leanings, sexual preferences, mental health state and even the drinks they like. That data has then been sold to companies operating in China.
Beijing’s recent activities in the digital world remind us that even the most mundane and trivial data about a person can have intelligence value—for example, in recruiting agents, guessing passwords and tracking the movements of targets. China’s expansive spying regime, which mobilises countless private entities and citizens, threatens to overwhelm Western intelligence services. That spying regime now has access to more information to inform decisions.
China’s latest moves draw our attention to the peculiar vulnerability of Australia in the region, especially among the AUKUS triad. Australian privacy law does not carry the same type of protections as British and US laws. Australia has neither a constitutional nor statutory right to privacy, and its key piece of legislative protection has provisions dating back to the 1980s. Despite receiving the results of a comprehensive review of the Privacy Act more than 18 months ago, the government has been sluggish to adopt any reforms that might help protect us from China’s data-harvesting practices.
The motivation for China to collect personal data in Australia has risen since we entered the AUKUS agreement in 2021. But the government isn’t showing enough interest in securing it against foreign manipulation and theft. Consider, too, that other intelligence players, such as India and Russia, are just as likely to join in.
Australia should take a leaf out of the US playbook on countering Chinese interference in its sovereign data. Since February 2024, the United States has been keen to regulate the sharing of information with foreign entities, starting with an executive order signed by President Joe Biden. The rules that Biden proposed on 21 October would ban data brokerage with foreign countries and only allow certain data to be shared with entities that adopt strict data security practices.
Beyond that, there is a growing need for industry and especially academia to adopt stronger security postures. Posting travel plans or political views on Facebook or Instagram might seem innocuous, but if it’s done by someone in a position of power or with access to valuable information, the individual’s vulnerability to espionage dramatically increases. As a society, we all need to take a little more notice and a little more care with what we are sharing online.
From Pacific leaders to regional intelligence analysts, climate change is consistently identified as the foremost security issue for the Pacific island region. Yet Australia’s current defence and intelligence approach to regional engagement, focused mainly on traditional defence, fails to adequately address this existential concern, leaving a gap in its strategy.
Greater integration of climate security issues into Australia’s defence and intelligence establishments, drawing inspiration from the United States’ approach, could improve Australia’s Pacific reputation. It would demonstrate that Australia takes the threat of climate change seriously and streamline regional mitigation, adaptation and preparedness efforts. With growing geopolitical competition in the region and the likely US retreat from climate-security leadership, this has never been of greater strategic importance.
Australia’s National Defence Strategy is clear that deepening Pacific relationships is key to our strategy of deterrence by denial. We seek to build and maintain these relationships mainly through traditional security arrangements, particularly by delivering what the strategy calls a ‘comprehensive package’ of maritime security infrastructure, equipment and training.
However, this approach doesn’t seem to be greatly enhancing our strategic influence in the Pacific. This should come as no surprise, as the strategy fails to account for the full breadth of security priorities and threat perceptions of its subject countries.
Since the early 1990s, Pacific island leaders have made it clear that climate change is their greatest security challenge. As the high commissioner of the Solomon Islands to Australia said in 2020, ‘climate change, not Covid-19, not even China, is the biggest threat to our security’—a threat, and plea for action, that Australia is perceived to have largely ignored.
Australia remains one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters per capita. Considering this—along with sentiments such as Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr’s statement that world leaders who remain inactive on climate issues ‘may as well bomb’ Pacific nations—how can Australia expect to be the Pacific’s partner of choice?
In contrast, the US has been a global leader when it comes to matters of climate security. It was an early advocate and placed climate change ‘at the heart’ of its national security. With the recent US Framework for Climate Resilience and Security, the 2022 National Security Strategy and the 2021 National Intelligence Estimate, the US’s defense and intelligence community leads the way in monitoring, analysing and assessing climate security threats. This information is crucial to streamlining mitigation and adaptation policies, identifying priority areas of investment and ensuring adequate preparedness not only domestically, but for partners across the globe.
Climate security leadership gave the US a significant and under-recognised advantage in the Pacific: it demonstrated its commitment to, unity with, and genuine respect for the people of the region and advanced the US’s status as the preferred partner.
But with an incoming president who has previously called climate change a hoax, US climate security leadership is likely at its end.
With China’s domination in almost every aspect of the renewable energy transition likely to win Beijing favour throughout the Pacific, climate security is an emerging gap in the West’s regional strategy.
If Australia wants to maintain regional strategic balance, it must urgently step up and lead in the climate security space. Leaving this area uncontested risks further compromising Australia’s regional influence, ceding the upper hand to other players in the region.
Australia’s capacity to engage with matters of climate security is much smaller than that of the US, so identifying and acting upon leverage points will be necessary. Australia should adopt a climate security strategy based on what has been the US strategy—one that considers how Australia’s National Intelligence Community can best be mobilised to monitor and assess climate security threats.
To facilitate this process, Australia should establish a climate intelligence working group.
This group should be a partnership between relevant scientific and intelligence agencies, similar to the United States Climate Security Advisory Council. It should identify and advise the government on priority areas of focus, which should be resourced and supported accordingly. Group output may, for example, include an annual net assessment, from which public and partner products could be produced.
This enhanced incorporation of climate security issues into our defence and intelligence establishments will demonstrate the seriousness with which Australia considers climate security threats. By affirming our commitment to and partnership with Pacific island nations in overcoming these threats, Australia may garner substantial favour throughout the region.
Furthermore, Australian leadership in this space would highlight Pacific islanders’ calls for urgent global climate action. As stated by Whipps, ‘the hardest challenge, I think, is sometimes you get drowned out—people denying that it actually is happening ….’
Australia can ensure that our neighbours’ voices are amplified, not drowned out.
If we want to persist with our current strategy, rather than adopt one that relies less on our Pacific partners, it’s time to take climate security seriously.
As former Samoan prime minister Tuila’epa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi said, ‘We all know the problem, the solutions. All that is left would be some courage to tell people there is certainty of disaster.’
The ‘emerging axis’ of autocratic powers epitomised by China’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine is, as Australia’s top intelligence chief Andrew Shearer recently said, one of the most troubling strategic developments today.
And just as those axis nations—which also include North Korea and Iran—have as many strategic differences as commonalities, countries such as Australia that are worried by, and looking to counter, this malign axis should understand that they’ll need to accept and work with a range of approaches from partners.
This reality was underscored by remarks made at ASPI-hosted events in recent weeks by India and the Philippines—two key regional players who are dealing with China’s assertiveness in their own ways but whom are both important partners to Australia.
First, India. The emerging giant’s stance on the axis is the more complicated. India has had a long strategic partnership with Russia, going back to the early Cold War. Yet it has an equally long history of disputes with China. This has included not just the contest over their unsettled border but also tensions stemming from Beijing’s support to Pakistan and its barely disguised efforts at undermining India on a variety of issues such as refusing to allow India to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group which governs transfers of civilian nuclear technology and material, and refusing to back India’s efforts to promote UN Security Council reforms as well as India’s quest for a seat on the Security Council.
So where does that leave India with respect to the new axis? At the Raisina Down Under summit, which ASPI co-hosted with India’s Observer Research Foundation, India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar answered by explaining that the three biggest countries of the Eurasian landmass formed a strategic triangle. This was, he reminded the audience, basic geometry learnt in all schools.
It was in India’s interests, he said, that it ‘never allow two sides to come to a point where the third is utterly disadvantaged’.
‘And I would even argue going beyond that,’ he continued, ‘at a time when … Russia’s relationship with the West is very badly damaged and Russia is turning more and more towards Asia, it’s useful in Asia that we give Russia more options … The more broadly Russia is engaged by Asian countries, frankly, that will allow that much more political, diplomatic flexibility for everybody concerned.’
The implication was that it is a better Indian strategy to tolerate Russia’s aggression and lawlessness, and to engage with both Russia and China through groupings such as the BRICS—which also includes Brazil and South Africa—than leaving India’s Eurasian strategic peers to pursue their no-limits partnership unchecked and without giving Moscow some kind of off-ramp.
Jaishankar’s further implication is that this is not just in India’s interests but the broader region’s and the West’s as well. Of course, whether this undermines the rules-based order intended to protect smaller and weaker states, and whether it’s a convenient excuse for India given its reliance on Russian energy and defence equipment, are both fair questions.
Still, India’s approach can clearly offer strategic balance. Better to have India there than not, Jaishankar is effectively saying. India, he pointed out, is neither Western nor anti-Western.
Our challenge is not to pressure New Delhi to pick a side. We should remember that China represents as much or more of a military and political threat to India as it does to any other country. It’s a principal reason why New Delhi invests in relations with Canberra and Washington, and why it participates in the Quad. We also know New Delhi is genuinely concerned by Russia’s growing closeness to China and by the two authoritarian states’ ‘no limits’ partnership.
The Philippines, by comparison, is a smaller player whose main goal right now with respect to China is to preserve its sovereignty. The strategic priorities it articulates are shaped accordingly. Speaking to an ASPI audience in Melbourne just days after the Raisina event, Philippines Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro Jr stressed the importance of calling out coercive action by China and the need for like-minded partners to do so together. There were no geometric metaphors—just a demand that the threat be clearly understood and responded to.
The Philippines has its own backstory: a treaty ally of the United States against both the Soviet Union and China during the Cold War, and a more recent history in which the mercurial leader Rodrigo Duterte harmed his countries’ interests by trying unsuccessfully to find a modus vivendi with Beijing.
Despite the different approaches, these are both very important partners to Australia. It’s worth noting their common strategic assessments and their emphasis on collective action. We know that limiting our reading of strategic challenges to ‘major power competition’ is wrong. Collaboration among regional powers, including smaller ones, is critical to what Foreign Minister Penny Wong calls ‘strengthening influence, leverage and sovereignty’.
Australia and likeminded countries such as the US and Japan need to assure India, the Philippines and others in the region—with all their varied approaches to the China challenge and the growing axis—that it is in their interests and the region’s to work with us.
The foundation is mutual interest rather than strategic altruism, as Ashley Tellis once characterised it. This doesn’t make it transactional however. Rather it is based on core principles of territorial integrity, democratic sovereignty, individual freedoms and national security. It might be useful for all sides to acknowledge this.
Three landmark reports this year have laid bare an uncomfortable truth: Australia is dangerously unprepared for crises.
Each report brings distinct yet complementary insights:
The Glasser review into disaster governance arrangements found that resilience has no dedicated home at the Commonwealth level. Its seven key recommendations emphasise the need for stronger leadership, including an elevated role for National Cabinet in coordinating resilience initiatives and the introduction of an annual National Resilience Report to Parliament, with clear metrics and a strengthened focus on climate risk.
The Telecommunications Sector Resilience Profile, of which I was the lead author, shows weaknesses at the sector level, with the concept of resilience only at an early stage of integration into federal policies. The report established a framework of seven guiding principles supported by 34 specific capabilities. This framework provides both a roadmap for enhancement and a mechanism to track progress in strengthening telecommunications infrastructure.
And the Colvin review examined disaster funding mechanisms, warning that without immediate, evidence-based investment in risk reduction, Australia faced an unsustainable rise in disaster-related costs. Its 44 recommendations, underpinned by eight design principles, outlined a more focused Commonwealth role, including new accountability measures and annual reporting requirements.
These reports converge on fundamental gaps: we lack a shared vision of success, clear lines of responsibility and ways to measure improvement. Without addressing these basics, Australia’s crisis response will remain fragmented and reactive.
The telecommunications sector perfectly illustrates these challenges. Modern networks are engineering marvels working invisibly in our daily lives, until they fail, as we saw in the Optus outage last year.
The problem runs deeper than individual failures. Our research at ANU revealed severe gaps in how we manage the interplay between markets and government regulation. When crises hit, we discover these gaps the hard way.
For example, the dependency of telecommunications on energy providers is a key vulnerability. Telecommunications providers do not often have prior warning of plans by energy providers to de-energise or re-energise the electricity grid. The Royal Commission into Natural Disaster Arrangements recommended improved cooperation between the telecommunications and energy sectors after the 2019–20 Black Summer bushfires, however current efforts have not improved the relationship, industry insiders say.
More worrying still is our diminishing ability to learn from these failures. Australia’s cyber intelligence agency has seen a decline in incident reporting. Instead, businesses are putting legal protection over transparency and collective improvement. This creates a dangerous knowledge gap: how can we improve if we don’t know what’s going wrong?
Each disruption offers lessons, yet we lack a systematic way to capture insights, implement changes across sectors and hold government and industry accountable for improvement.
The Glasser review notes differing meanings of resilience. For remote communities, it may mean preserving major employers. For national security planners, it encompasses regional security, supply chain stability, cyber threats, natural disasters and terrorism. In telecommunications, resilience can mean, for example, ensuring businesses’ revenue or students’ access to online learning.
Differing interpretations of resilience can lead to institutional inertia. Various groups can claim their expectations aren’t being met while they wait for others to act. Resilience becomes both everyone’s responsibility and no one’s.
The telecommunications sector demonstrates the difficulty of making achievement of resilience actionable for industry. As each provider defines resilience based on its commercial interests, sector-wide efforts are often at cross-purposes.
The Telecommunications Sector Resilience Profile proposed a principles-based cyber governance framework based on the UN’s Principles for Resilient Infrastructure. This practical application of the UN’s principles could inform their use in other critical infrastructure sectors.
The Colvin review makes clear we’re still trying to solve tomorrow’s problems with yesterday’s funding models. Complex funding arrangements often fail those who need help most by creating a system in which success depends more on grant-writing expertise than need. While well-resourced organisations can navigate the bureaucratic maze, our most vulnerable communities—those facing language barriers, disability or geographic isolation—are left exposed.
The telecommunications sector perfectly illustrates this brewing crisis. Major carriers cannot justify skyrocketing infrastructure costs to meet growing data demands while revenue streams struggle to keep pace. This isn’t just a business problem; it’s a national security issue. When commercial imperatives clash with resilience requirements, short-term thinking often wins.
The last few years have forced faster crisis decision-making, but speed without strategy has left us lurching between emergencies. These three reports share a common message: breaking this cycle requires more than just response plans.
Effective crisis leadership demands clear objectives that guide priorities, robust systems that ensure dependable action, and shared measures of success. Building true resilience demands more than chasing spot fires—it demands transformative thinking.
Chinese companies own or operate at least one port on every continent except Antarctica. These investments present more than immediate security concerns; they position China to fully exploit the economic potential of ports at the expense of other countries.
And with Chinese companies controlling development of a port, the government in Beijing can interfere in physical development of the facility, perhaps to ensure that navally useful infrastructure isn’t built.
The former and current Australian governments have been criticized for acquiescing in the Chinese company Landbridge owning a 99-year lease on Darwin Port, the commercial operation in Darwin Harbour. Criticism has focused on security concerns, such as the Chinese government possibly arranging to use the facility for military surveillance or for sabotaging it in times of tension.
But the ordinary civilian activity of a Chinese company controlling the development of ports can have negative consequences for the host nation and others. As is seen in many industries, one Chinese business will often prefer to work with another, with the result that China has maximum exposure to potential profits.
We saw a step towards this last month in relation to Darwin Port, the commercial operation in Darwin Harbour. As the ABC reported, Port of Darwin signed a memorandum with the Port of Shenzhen for ‘friendly cooperation’. The aim is to increase trade links between the ports, which would have to mean Chinese companies, such as shipping lines, deepening economic involvement in Darwin Port.
Situated in southern China, the Port of Shenzhen is one of the busiest and fastest-growing in the world.
Interestingly, this agreement was not announced in Australia, and after the ABC reported it there was no public discussion of new links to China by the commercial port in one of Australia’s most strategically important harbours.
The Council on Foreign Relations has been tracking China’s growing maritime influence through investments in strategic overseas ports and has reported that while China has limited overseas naval bases, it has emerged as a leading commercial power with considerable economic influence over international sea lanes and commercial ports. China’s shipping routes and service networks span major countries and regions worldwide, backed by 70 bilateral and regional shipping agreements with 66 nations.
In October 2023, the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet finalised a review into the circumstances of the Darwin Port lease, finding that a robust regulatory system would manage risks to critical infrastructure, that existing monitoring mechanisms were sufficient, and, as a result, that the government did not need to cancel or vary the lease.
But the review appears not to have addressed the problem that decisions about development of Darwin Port are now in non-Australian hands. In particular, Australia does not seem to have considered that the Chinese government now exerts influence over capital investment at Darwin Port.
Warships use civilian wharves and other port facilities as well as naval bases, especially during conflict, just as military aircraft can fly from civilian airfields. Some port facilities suit naval ships and their missions better than others.
The Chinese government can exert influence on a Chinese company operating abroad and even take coercive action against Australian companies, as experienced by the Lynas Corporation in Western Australia. If the Chinese armed forces take an interest in a foreign port’s capacity to support naval operations, they can certainly send a message to its Chinese owner about what improvements should not be made there, even profitable improvements.
The 2024 National Defence Strategy and associated spending plan, the Integrated Investment Program, did not expressly mention the Darwin Port, but the importance of logistics facilities in Darwin was implied by funding allocated for enhancing theatre logistics and improving fuel holdings, storage, and distribution in northern Australia.
As China continues to deepen its geoeconomic footprint, addressing the potential risks associated with foreign control over critical infrastructure becomes increasingly important. Transparent communication and proactive policy decisions are crucial to preventing national assets from becoming leverage points in broader regional power dynamics.
Australia’s new relationship with India has push-pull poles—the pull of the Indian diaspora in Australia and the push that China applies to the Indo-Pacific.
The diaspora is the personal dimension that pulls India and Australia together. China is the geopolitical push that shapes the four-year old India-Australia comprehensive strategic relationship.
Between the push-pull poles stretches the great pool of shared prosperity in trade and investment, education, science and technology, and clean energy.
This push, pull and prosperity defined much in Canberra’s India talkfest in Parliament House last week: the back-to-back meetings of the Australia-India Foreign Ministers’ Framework Dialogue and the second Raisina Down Under dialogue, a multilateral conference that aims to address geostrategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Here was first track and second track dialogue running so close as to overlap.
At the press conference after the foreign ministers’ dialogue, Australia’s Penny Wong said it was the 19th time she’d met her Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. When they came together on the Raisina stage the next day, Wong counted meeting number 20. She observed that among the world’s foreign ministers, ‘Jai is the person with whom I have met most and that says something about our friendship, it says something about my regard for him, and the wisdom and insight he always brings to our discussions.’
Personal chemistry always helps diplomacy, but interests drive. Interests have driven Australia and India to converge in this renewed relationship, far removed from their distant and often negative dealings in the 20th century and the early years of this century.
Wong said her constant contact with Jaishankar reflected the importance of what is being created: ‘We share a region and we share a future. We see India as just so important in terms of securing the region we both want and the world we both want.’
Wong said the diaspora of 1 million Australians with Indian heritage is ‘the beating heart of the relationship’. Jaishankar agreed that the diaspora is a key to the India-Australia bond, just as it is in India’s dealings with the United States: ‘The model is the manner in which our US relationship transformed. I do think it’s a change that can be corelated with the growth of the diaspora in the US.’
Jaishankar said the rapport with Australia showed ‘a relationship whose potential was waiting to be realised’. Among the four Quad members (Australia, India, Japan and the United States), he said, the bilateral dynamic that has changed the most for India is with Australia. ‘The relationship is on a roll,’ Jaishankar said, and ‘the more we do, the more the possibilities open up.’
India’s upbeat language on Australia contrasted the discussion about what China’s push is doing to the region.
The sharpest account offered to the Raisina dialogue was from Andrew Shearer, director-general of Australia’s Office of National Intelligence. Shearer said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese refers to him as the ‘bad news guy’, and he delivered such news. Geostrategic competition, Shearer said, would drive a ‘generational, structural contest in the Indo-Pacific’. Rivalry over critical technologies would be the ‘centre of gravity’ or ‘commanding heights’. Looking at China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, Shearer offered a ‘very strong view that we have underestimated the strategic impact of this emerging axis’.
Jaishankar’s language on China was that of a minister looking to ‘find ways to discuss how to normalise the relationship’. Since the deadly clash between Indian and Chinese troops on the Himalayan border in 2020, he said, the relationship had been ‘cut back’ and ‘very profoundly affected.’
On 21 October, India announced an agreement with China on ‘disengagement and resolution’ of border issues. A few days later, China’s Xi Jinping and India’s Narendra Modi sealed the deal with a handshake on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia, the first formal bilateral between the two leaders in five years.
In Canberra, Jaishankar observed that the deal with China is a ‘positive development’. The next challenge, he said, was de-escalation of forces, with more negotiation by foreign ministers and national security advisors. At the Raisina dialogue, Jaishankar put the border issue into its broadest context: ‘It’s really in a way quite a challenge, because you have the two most populous countries, both of whom are rising in a broadly parallel time frame.’
With an eye on Donald Trump resuming the presidency in January, the Canberra talks emphasised what Wong called ‘the great importance in the Quad’.
Jaishankar said India had seen steady progress in its relationship with the US over the last five presidencies, including the previous Trump presidency. The second version of the Quad had been under Trump in 2017, Jaishankar said, and that should help its prospects with the new administration. India is confident, and Jaishankar said that its ‘relationship with the United States will only grow’.
In dealing with the Indo-Pacific impacts of the first Trump presidency, Australia did much in tandem with Japan. Canberra will again work with Tokyo, but this time New Delhi will add a new dimension to the Trump wrangling and whispering.
It’s often hard work. It’s often in the face of ingrained habits of anxiety and suspicion. But Australia is steadily building closer links with that place that is in some ways its most natural partner in east Asia: Taiwan.
Rather than ‘place’, I feel tempted to write ‘country’. A few years ago, the embassy of the People’s Republic of China sent a polite and, in the end, slightly puzzled diplomat to explain to me mistakes in articles I’d written.
Foremost was that I’d referred to Taiwan as a country. I explained that readers might be perplexed as to what else to call a place that had its own constitution, elected its own leaders, printed its own money and defended its own borders.
Australians feel comfortable in Taiwan, however it’s described. It has a similarly sized population. It has an effective universal healthcare system. Visitors fly there without needing visas. Its indigenous population is about the same, proportionally—though with closer links culturally to Pacific islanders, who mostly derived from Asia via Taiwan. It was the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage. It’s a comparatively egalitarian, middle-class place and generally the most socially progressive in the region. Its physical beauty mirrors that of New Zealand’s South Island, which it resembles a little topographically.
Of course, there’s a huge economic difference. Australia’s only world-leading industry is to discover, extract and export resources, which we do brilliantly. Taiwan’s is to innovate, develop and market the high-end semi-conductors used in almost every form of advanced activity and product in the world.
But that also means there’s big scope for joint endeavour, including in services, in which trade soared 50 percent in 2023. Overall, Taiwan became Australia’s sixth-biggest goods-and-services export market in 2023, while Australia became Taiwan’s fifth-largest import source. The prospects for further increases are high, with Taiwan’s GDP growth expected to reach about 4 percent for 2024. Mutual investment rose 24 percent in 2023 to $41 billion, split fairly evenly between the two, and with nine Taiwanese banks now operating in Australia, to which they have brought funds of $65 billion.
In early November, 11 Taiwanese biotech companies formed the biggest international delegation to participate in Australia’s largest life sciences conference this year, AusBiotech 2024, in Melbourne. Five of them are located at the Southern Taiwan Science Park, which coordinated the delegation.
In August, the 37th Australia-Taiwan Business Conference was held on Queensland’s Gold Coast, with more than 180 participants, almost a third from Taiwan. The theme of this year’s conference was ‘smart partnerships for a smart future’. It was organised by the Australia Taiwan Business Council, alongside its counterpart the Republic of China Australia Business Council, whose name reflects archaic pieties that Taiwan must retain to avoid being lambasted for seeking independence.
The conference featured major speakers and panels on critical minerals, energy transition, biotech, advanced manufacturing including defence and space, and cyber security. The speakers included Senator Tim Ayres, the assistant minister for trade and for a Future Made in Australia; Cameron Dick, the then deputy premier and treasurer of Queensland; and Donna Gates, the acting mayor of the Gold Coast. Three Queensland state and federal members of parliament participated, as did three parliamentarians from Taiwan.
Emerging business leaders made presentations, and plans are underway for an enhanced four-year program to build on this important network connecting young entrepreneurs and executives of Australia and Taiwan.
Next year’s conference is likely to be held in Taiwan’s lively second city, Kaohsiung, providing further opportunities for Australian businesspeople to deepen and broaden their Taiwan networks and commercial opportunities. The positive trend in the relationship would be enhanced considerably by the participation of Australia’s trade minister; it has been 12 years since a trade minister, then Craig Emerson, went to Taiwan.
Such a visit—especially if the minister is accompanied by a business delegation—would do much to further galvanise economic opportunities. Taiwan’s minister for economic affairs should also visit Australia with a business delegation.
In 2025, Australia will take the chair of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. There is therefore a strong case for Australia to encourage Taiwan to negotiate membership, and separately to negotiate a bilateral free trade agreement. However, Canberra’s overriding regional priority of stabilisation of the relationship with China makes such moves unlikely. But federally sponsored trade and investment missions—perhaps focused on areas such as biotech or green energy—would be a helpful alternative step.
In addition, a Future Made in Australia program might promisingly feature an agreement to foster the involvement of Taiwan tech companies in the development of critical minerals and rare earths processing in Australia.
Building such policy architecture would provide a helpful framework for the already promising commercial and cultural trends boosting connections between two natural regional partners.
Australia managed the first presidential term of Donald Trump as well as any nation. Now it can also manage the second term well.
In doing so, we must work with friends in our region to ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains the main US strategic focus. That also means stressing to Trump and his team that Ukraine’s survival is an Indo-Pacific priority.
Trump will demand more of allies, and we should revel in doing more to attend to our own security and that of others.
In 2017, Australia quickly understood that invoking its long friendship with the United States was not enough in dealing with the then newly elected Trump. He expected to see ongoing efforts in helping the US with its burdens. And we could show that: we had begun, in the national interest, taking stronger security measures against China and were paying an economic price for them.
It helped, too, that we were increasing our defence budget. Altogether, our relationship with the United States actually strengthened during Trump’s first administration.
In his first term, Trump turned US strategic attention decisively towards China. This was deeply in Australia’s interest. The US focus on the Indo-Pacific has continued through the administration of President Joe Biden, and we want it to continue in the coming Trump term.
It was also in the interests of such friends as India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines, and still is. So, we should together send the reminder to Trump and his team that the Indo-Pacific is the main game, particularly because China is the captain of the totalitarian Axis.
In the face of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea working together, we should heed Edmund Burke’s clarion call of ‘when bad men combine, the good must associate else they will fail one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle’.
Vitally, Australia and its friends, including other Five Eyes members, should ensure Trump’s team knows that what happens to Ukraine matters for all of us. Trump and his future vice president, JD Vance, have campaigned on quickly stopping the war in Ukraine.
Australia cannot be silent on how damaging a victory for Vladimir Putin would be for Indo-Pacific countries, which would lose trust in the US and its allies and fall into fatalistic acceptance that China will dominate the region.
North Korea’s entry into the fight may have been the turning point needed to ensure the Trump team knows that Ukraine cannot be isolated from Indo-Pacific interests and that a victory for Putin would be a victory for his no-limits partner, Xi Jinping. This victory would be a setback for Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, Australia and the US itself.
Trump’s decision in his first term to compete with China included economic action, setting the West on a path away from policies that misjudged trade and financial links with China as proof of stability.
There can be no stability when the Axis regimes’ routine is destabilisation. They sometimes pause their campaigns, not in good faith but to seek compromises from us while they reload for their next phase of attacks on global rules.
So, we should work with the new Trump administration to further reduce economic dependence on China. For that, Trump has the right instincts.
He has the right instincts on China’s exploitation of the information domain, too. Australia should encourage him to continue what he started in applying sanctions and tariffs on the Chinese tech sector.
Australia and the US must strive together to counteract China’s abuse of the information domain to divide our nations, turn them against each other, undermine our democratic institutions and shift the global order. The tech sector and digital world should be high on the Australian list for engagement with the Trump team.
Both AUKUS and NATO are vital and must be strengthened. The US’s partners within those groupings will need to show Trump they are pulling their weight.
AUKUS should thrive, since Britain and especially Australia are already spending on it and will spend more, deepening their cooperation with the US. NATO members will likely start with a lesser goal of just keeping their alliance together. Most will have to prove they will not fall back into military slumber, leaving the US to do everyone’s job.
For them, Australia and other US friends in the Western Pacific, Trump’s expectations will mean, above all, that they must spend more on defence. They should do so willingly.
Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s foreign policy adviser, Takashi Kawakami, said recently that an America that demands more from allies could be an opportunity for Japan to become a ‘truly independent country … and create an environment that allows Japan to defend its sovereignty with its own strategy against foreign forces.’
It’s an argument that Australia should consider. It doesn’t mean isolation and terminating alliances with the US but, rather, strengthening ourselves to strengthen those alliances. We become stronger individually and collectively.