Tag Archive for: Australia

Kiwi and kangaroo (part IV): future imperfect

The new International Stabilisation Force Commander, Colonel Mick Reilly and the Deputy Commander International Stabilistaion Force, Commander Tony Miller exchange a Hongi during the traditional Powhiri ceremony held in East Timor.

This is part IV of a series on Australia–New Zealand relations (part I here, part II here, part III here).

The Australian Army can find positive things to say about its Kiwi counterpart, usually in a sardonic tone. My favourite in this version of an Oz Army compliment: ‘The Maori Army? Better than Gurkhas! They bring their own officers and you don’t have to pay them’.

In the South Pacific, we can add to those assets the fact that the Maori Army can sing while the Australian Army has a hard time just chanting. The Kiwi cultural feel for the region can matter. In East Timor, the Australian Army on foot was known for its sunglasses. The Kiwis stomped on the habit because of their awareness of the need for eye contact when out amongst the people.

The NZ Army is admired for doing what it does on a shoestring. The other side of the same budgetary coin is that it’s derided for bludging off others when it does turn up at a job—looking to fellow forces to overcome Kiwi deficiencies in transport and kit.

The Australian and New Zealand militaries have had a lot to do with each other in what have been long-term jobs in Bougainville, Timor and the Solomons. The old bonds have been burnished by new experiences. Read more

Marines in Darwin – make it so

The first contingent of the United States Marine Corps are greeted by Australia's Minister for Defence, Stephen Smith and United States Ambassador for Australia, His Excellency Jeffrey L. Bleich as they arrive at RAAF Base Darwin.

We’re in Washington this week for the Alliance 21 project being run by the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. It’s an interesting time to be in Washington. Over the next 24 hours the US budget negotiations will come to a head, potentially resulting in substantial cuts to US defence spending by way of sequestration.

To say that the situation has the attention of American defence planners is putting it mildly. The prospective cuts to come are likely to be deep and potentially long-term. Civilians in the Pentagon could see their working days (and income) reduced, and service personnel are facing a period of reduced training and limited promotion opportunities. As grim as those possibilities are for the individuals concerned, the impact of most interest to Australia and other American allies and partners is the potential reduction in the preparedness and capability of America’s armed forces.

This possibility comes at a particularly unfortunate time as far as the United States’ pivot/rebalance to the Asia–Pacific is concerned. After talking a big game, there’s now a real question mark over their ability to follow through. Further cuts to US defence spending would likely have two major effects. First, the ability of US forces to substantially change their force structure, let alone ramp up numbers in the region, would be in doubt. Moving forces around is expensive, especially when substantial facilities are required. Read more

Antarctic nationalism

Nesting Gentoo Penguins don't seem to mind the occasional tourists at Waterboat Point, Antarctica.

Australia has a range of interests in Antarctica. Preserving our sovereignty over our Antarctic territory remains a fundamental interest. Since 1936, Australia has claimed 42% of Antarctica. Our claim, including extensive offshore areas, gives us significant influence in Antarctic governance. We wish to maintain the continent free from strategic confrontation. This means we don’t need to worry about the security dimension of the cold continent. A peaceful Antarctica saves our defence dollars.

We also have a strong interest in a healthy Antarctic and Southern Ocean ecosystem at our maritime back door. That includes taking advantage of the special opportunities Antarctica offers for science. Antarctica is providing important data on climate change. Science is the cornerstone of our Antarctic presence. It’s the currency of influence in the governance of the continent. We want to be able to shape the political environment in a region proximate to Australia. And we want to derive economic benefits from Antarctica.

In the new National Security Strategy (PDF) there’s little attention devoted to Antarctica. There’s a brief mention in the section on ‘Australia’s place in the world’, that notes ‘[o]ur extensive ocean and seabed interests extend well away from the shoreline and include important interests in Antarctica’ yet it doesn’t capture well enough the strategic interests the continent holds for us. Read more

Kiwi and kangaroo (part III): the ANZUS resurrection

This is part III of a series on Australia–New Zealand relations (part I here, part II here).

To be in Canberra in 1985–86 as the ANZUS alliance was shaken until it collapsed and died was to witness the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

Of those five stages, anger was the strongest, and acceptance was a long time coming. The one thing missing from the Kubler-Ross stages of grief as displayed by Australian politicians and bureaucrats was the sense of amazement, stretching to the incredulous, that the slow-motion disaster couldn’t be averted.

There was plenty of incredulity in Wellington, too, but it was accompanied by the sense of popular exhilaration at the faceoff with the US. The nuclear-free principles of the Lange Labour government crashed into the ‘neither confirm nor deny’ doctrine of the US Navy, compounded by the determination of the Reagan administration that the Kiwis would not set a new low for alliance backsliding. This was drama played as Mouse That Roared farce.

The US renounced its treaty obligations to New Zealand, the excitement faded, everyone slowly adjusted, and all sides eventually got used to the idea that ANZUS was no more. Over the past few years, however, we have come to the realisation that there can be life after death. The resurrection of ANZUS in some form rises before us. Read more

Getting Australia’s ‘strategic interests’ right

Seeing strategic interests that require the use of force?

The new National Security Strategy (NSS) is meant to set the context for the next Defence White Paper, scheduled for release later this year. But it falls short on one key point. While NSS provides a good coverage of Australia broad security interests, it could’ve better elaborated Australia’s strategic worldview. The 2000 and 2009 Defence White Papers included a chapter called ‘Australia’s Strategic Interests’, however the image of strategic interests sketched out in these was limited, reactive, and heavily defence-oriented. When the Defence Minister spoke at both ASPI and Lowy functions in August last year, he outlined Australia’s strategic interests in the same way—and no one raised so much as an eyebrow.

However, there’s a problem in seeing Australia’s strategic interests merely as ‘those national security interests… in relation to which Australia might contemplate the use of force,’ as the 2009 White Paper put it. For one thing, this approach puts the cart before the horse—making us think first about where we might be willing (and able) to use force and then defining our strategic interests accordingly.

The potential use of force is of course where the Defence Department focuses its attention and, as a result, it tends to frame the debate in those terms. In the 2009 Defence White Paper, our Defence Department lists our ‘most basic strategic interest’ as defending the continent of Australia from armed attack. ‘Most basic’ is apparently meant to mean ‘most important’ strategic interest, given another phrase where a secure neighbourhood is described as ‘our next most important strategic interest’. The security, stability and cohesion of our immediate neighbourhood, including Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, New Zealand and the South Pacific island states falls under this section. Read more

Avoiding a ‘final showdown’ with North Korea

Final showdown with North Korea?

After the UN Security Council tightened existing sanctions against North Korea this month (adding four organisations and six individuals to its blacklist) the North responded by warning that it would carry out additional rocket launches and a third nuclear test. In recent days, the North has ramped up its histrionic rhetoric saying that a third nuclear test is the ‘demand of the people’ and that it has ‘no other option but to push forward towards the final showdown’.

Against this backdrop, there’s no doubt that we’re in the middle of another cycle of North Korean nuclear brinkmanship. Intelligence reports, including images of activity around the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, suggest that a third nuclear weapon test is imminent—another step in Pyongyang’s typical escalatory ladder. For instance, in April 2009 it began by conducting a rocket launch, which prompted the UNSC to tighten sanctions. This led Kim Jong-Il to retaliate by authorising a second nuclear test. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the same pattern repeated, especially in the context of the North’s current threat levels, South Korea’s successful rocket launch, and because South Korea is due to assume the UNSC presidency in February.

Looking back, North Korea’s first nuclear test was widely considered to be a failure and its second too small to be an unqualified success. But analysts now fear that a third might produce a yield of between 12–20 kilotonnes, which would indicate that North Korea has managed to resolve some or all of its technical difficulties. Read more

Submarines and maritime strategy – part 1

HMAS Collins and HMNZS Te Mana (background) anchored in Jervis Bay during the Fleet Concentration Period.  Fleet Concentration Period held in the vicinity of Jervis Bay allows ships company to hone their skills, conducting various exercises to enhance a war fighting capability.

Nic Stuart’s enquiry regarding the need for submarines, asks the reader to think back to the very beginning, the 2009 Defence White Paper. Yet, 2009 is hardly an appropriate start point if we are to adequately grasp the need for submarines, or understand broader Australian maritime strategy.

The real beginning was 1901. In the years following Federation, the fledgling Australian Government sought to understand its needs for the defence of the realm. On 7 April 1902 Major General Hutton, Commandant of the Military Forces of the Commonwealth, noted:

The defence of Australia cannot… be considered apart from the defence of Australian interests. Australia depends for its commercial success and its future development firstly upon its seaborne trade and secondly upon the existence, maintenance, and extension of fixed and certain markets for its produce outside Australian waters. It therefore follows that Australian interests cannot be assured by the defence alone of Australian soil.

The Commonwealth first seriously considered acquiring submarines in 1907. Alongside the mix of destroyers and cruisers that made up the first fleet unit, Australia eventually elected to purchase three submarines, and in 1914 the first two, AE1 and AE2, arrived at Sydney. So began Australia’s nearly 100-year association with submarines, running through the J, O and Oberon classes, until Collins in the 1990s and the current debate. Read more

Indonesia: a small arms supplier for Australia?

The Pindad SPR (abbreviation from Indonesian : Senapan Penembak Runduk, Sniper Rifle) is a sniper rifle produced by PT. Pindad, Indonesia.

In a recent Centre of Gravity paper for the ANU (PDF), Tim Huxley rightly calls for closer Australian defence cooperation with Indonesia, and for Australia to enhance defence relations with Malaysia and Singapore. His observation that any relationship between Australia and Indonesia has to be a ‘two-way street’ also recognises the necessity of the relationship to being more mature than it currently is.

However Huxley’s comment that such a relationship might mean that Indonesia begins supplying Australia with ‘small arms and ammunition’ is (possibly deliberately) extremely provocative.

Like a number of advanced developing countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia has its own evolving defence-industrial base, and currently produces a range of small arms and ammunition, as well as larger systems. Like other arms producing countries, Indonesia will have political and economic reasons for exporting its military products; they enhance a country’s prestige and bring economies of scale for its own acquisitions (at least in theory). And Indonesia is clearly looking to position itself as an arms exporter. Read more

AUKMIN: awkward Anglos

AUKMIN press conference: Foreign Secretary William Hague with Secretary of State for Defence Philip Hammond and Kevin Rudd, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Australia with Stephen Smith, Minister for Defence of Australia answer questions from the media at a press conference in London, 24 January 2012.

Later this month Perth will host the fifth meeting of AUKMIN, the annual gathering of Foreign and Defence ministers from Australia and the United Kingdom. It will be a curious gathering, overshadowed by a doubt that both sides won’t raise but which still dogs this oldest of Australia’s bilateral relations: neither country takes the other seriously as a potentially closer defence partner. Australia doubts that the UK’s new-found interest in Asia really goes beyond trade and investment to include deep engagement on security. The UK wonders how much interest Australia has left for Europe after the Asian Century White Paper tied us so firmly to the region’s economic success story.

The litmus test for substance in a bilateral defence relationship is what the two defence forces actually do together. Reading the last AUKMIN communiqué from January 2012, I’m forced to the reluctant conclusion that the answer is ‘not very much’. The communiqué shows that ministers ‘discussed’ all manner of strategic issues, from the Arab Spring to Fiji—going so far as to commit themselves to ‘sharing strategic insights and aligning… thinking’. The reader searches in vain for just one practical measure of planned and funded defence engagement. Both the 2012 and 2011 communiqués deploy the phrase that the two countries are ‘committed to working together in concrete and practical ways’ on security cooperation—effectively demonstrating the iron rule of communiqué writing: the less substance there is in the relationship, the more spruiking is needed.

The fact is that defence cooperation between the UK and Australia is limited and at risk of shrinking further. Because of cost saving measures, secondments between the forces are reducing, as is training and exercising. Intelligence exchanges and strategic dialogues are low cost and show that each country has a lot to gain from deeper engagement but they can’t wholly replace the practical value that comes from close service to service engagement. Of course there is a deep cultural affinity between the two Defence organisations, but wallowing in heritage and history is no substitute for an active and modern strategic relationship. Read more

Using social media strategically: #Indonesia

Recently I wrote about the ways in which social media can be employed in an aggressive virtual campaign during warfare, using the example of Israel and Hamas. Australia is in very different geostrategic circumstances, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t lessons here for the ADF. The IDF–Hamas case shows how social media can be employed in spreading a strategically-crafted message to a world-wide audience. Australia in general, and Defence in particular, have a good opportunity to tailor some strategic messaging about our relationship with Indonesia.

With a population of 240 million, Indonesians are some of the world’s most prevalent users of social media. Looking at Twitter alone, Indonesia is the fifth largest Twitter user country in the world, with Jakarta and Bandung (another major Javanese city) ranking first and sixth respectively in recent surveys (click to enlarge). A message in Indonesia’s Twitterverse is likely to be heard.

Top 20 cities by number of posted tweets, Source: Semiocast

Source: Semiocast 2012

And Indonesians haven’t shied away from opportunities on Australian social media, including those of the ADF. During this year’s Exercise Pitch Black, Indonesian social media users took to the official Exercise Pitch Black Facebook page to share their enthusiasm and support for the Indonesian Air Force’s pilots and Sukhois (see images below). Indeed, it was a momentous occasion to celebrate—it was the first time that Indonesian combat aircraft had participated in an Australian air exercise. Read more