Tag Archive for: Australia

ISIS: the challenge and the opportunity

War in the Middle EastAfter President Obama’s announcement of his long-awaited strategy to defeat ISIS, there’s been considerable discussion as to how the world might respond to the strategy and the likelihood of its success. There’s also a growing and necessary discussion of what Australia’s role should be.

The rise of ISIS—and the somewhat patchy response by the West—has been both interesting and disturbing to watch. The common view is that it’s a regional problem with global implications and that states like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey should be more forthright in their response.

My concern is that far too many commentators are focused on the impending ‘fight’, and the means to execute it, to the exclusion of all else. There’s little said about the broader regional landscape after the fight. My fear is that the conventional wisdom again sees the answer solely in US leadership of a coalition of supporting nations with highly-mixed capabilities—some offering nothing but rhetoric, others a limited range of combat capabilities surrounded by so many caveats on their use as to add little value. Read more

NATO’s Wales Summit and the implications for Australia

Prime Minister David Cameron met with several heads of NATO countriesNATO just concluded its most important summit in more than a decade in Wales. Originally, the Alliance had planned to talk mostly about the way ahead in Afghanistan. But Russia’s intervention in Ukraine fundamentally changed the strategic equation. All of a sudden, NATO found itself having to reassure its east European allies about the credibility of its collective defence commitment. As well, the US and the UK added the threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) on the agenda. Finally, there was the question of what to do with NATO’s partnerships, including with Australia.

With all that on the table, and following a period of uncertainty about its post-Afghanistan future and stagnating defence budgets, expectations about a ‘new birth of NATO’ were high. In Australia, commentators expected a ‘historic partnership’ with the Alliance. One even warned about the implications of a full membership in NATO. That’s a ‘strawman’ though: Article 10 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty limits new membership to European countries and no one in NATO is seriously considering inviting Canberra to join. That said, in recent years Australia–NATO relations have improved significantly in the context of joint operations in Afghanistan. So, to what degree did the Wales Summit meet expectations and what are the likely implications for Australia? Read more

Inside Islamabad: thoughts on the Long March

Pakistan Tahreeki Insaf (PTI) workers protesting against election rigging.This year’s Independence Day on 14 August in Pakistan marked the start of political protests against the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Now into their third week, protests have become violent in recent days with questions being raised about Pakistan’s political stability. Will this political agitation succeed in changing the political landscape in Pakistan? And will this provide Pakistan and its region with greater stability and change for the better?

The protestors comprise two groups. Leading one group is former cricketer and Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf party (PTI) leader Imran Khan who has led a ‘freedom’ march from Lahore to Islamabad and has continued to push the notion that the Sharif government has been elected illegitimately, with a supposed 70,000 votes missing from each constituency. Leading the other is cleric and Sufi Scholar Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri who called his own ‘revolt’ march on behalf of his party, Pakistani Awami Tehreek (PAT). His group is calling for less corruption in government and disallowing ‘corrupt members’ from standing for election. Read more

America and Australia: economic ties as strong and important as security ties

The US and the UK are the largest foreign investors in Australia.

This week in Sydney, the annual AUSMIN meeting of US and Australian Defence and Foreign Ministers will shine an appropriately bright light on the past century of close and constructive security collaboration between our two nations’ military forces. From US soldiers under the command of Australian General John Monash in WWI to ongoing rotational training deployments of US Marines in Darwin, we’ll be reminded of important shared sacrifices in the defence of democracy and freedom.

What may be lost in this annual event is recognition of the even closer—and arguably more important—economic relationship that has joined and benefitted America and Australia for at least twice as long. And that relationship shows no sign of losing its relevance or primacy. Read more

Abe’s visit to Australia: Japanese coverage

Shinzo Abe

It’s been a couple of weeks since Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, delivered an historic address to the Australian Parliament, during a visit that attracted widespread media commentary here. But how was the visit covered by Japanese media?

Just before his departure to the Pacific, Abe’s cabinet had agreed to changes in constitutional interpretation which would allow Japan the right of collective self-defence, though under certain restraints. Prime Ministers Abe and Tony Abbott had already agreed to enter into a ‘special relationship’ at Tokyo in April. So centre-left newspapers that had opposed the changes in constitutional interpretation were waiting for a statement from Mr Abe to stress collective self-defence as one of the pillars of the new Japan–Australia relationship. The Abe address, however, started by expressing condolences for those who had lost their lives during the war, and paid tribute to Australia’s positive approach towards postwar Japan. Then Mr Abe called for working closely with Australia to build an open, ruled-based regional order, based on the two countries’ common US alliances and pledged to raise the banner of a ‘proactive contribution to peace’. Read more

ANZAC divergence—where to from here?

Secretary and Chief Executive of the Ministry of Defence of New Zealand, Helene Quilter, and Lieutenant General Tim Keating Chief of Defence Force New Zealand Visit to ADF Headquarters Canberra 23 July 2014.

Although it’s peculiar that we find strategic differences between Canberra and Wellington peculiar, disagreements may become starker and more costly as hard power reemerges as a driving force in international affairs. What more, then, might Australia and New Zealand do to promote strategic convergence where we can and to avoid harming each other’s interests when we can’t?

It shouldn’t surprise when two countries draw dissimilar policy conclusions from an essentially shared reading of global trends. Nations quite reasonably adopt divergent solutions to problems they’ve broadly convergent views about. Our circumstances provide different options and constraints to a ‘near neighbor’ 2,000 km away with a population five times smaller, an economy 10 times smaller, and a strategic culture that sometimes seems more Nordic than part of the Anglosphere. The way Washington has, ‘in pivot mode’, welcomed Wellington partly back into the military fold without requiring it to ‘repent’ its nuclear-free policy blinds us to the Cold War-era ANZUS row. References to ‘family’ and ‘the spirit of Gallipoli’ reflect genuine closeness but can let relationship managers ‘wallow in their comfort zones’ rather than innovate. Read more

A ‘Jokowin’ is a win for Australia

Jokowi!

It’s official, Joko Widodo has been elected Indonesia’s new president. Last night, hours after Prabowo’s dramatic announcement that he was quitting the election, Indonesia’s General Election Commission (KPU) declared Jokowi and his running mate Jusuf Kalla (together known as Jokowi-JK) the winners with 53.15% of the votes. And that’s a good thing for Australia.

For one, Jokowi’s looking to strengthen Indonesia’s state capacities as well as its economy. If you look at the ‘Vision Mission’ statement (PDF) of Jokowi-JK (summary in English here), many of its policies relate to improving governance and law enforcement, reducing inequality, boosting the economy via productivity and competitiveness, and raising the quality of life. It’s early days and Jokowi remains inexperienced at the national level, yet the combination of his positive track record coupled with his commitment to transparency and efficiency give cause for modest optimism. And here’s why: a strong and stable Indonesia is an Indonesia that can do more in international affairs.

Team Jokowi has already indicated that it intends to pursue greater middle-power diplomacy as well as expand engagement among Indo-Pacific partners, especially ASEAN. A strong and confident Indonesia can continue to act both as the de facto head of the Southeast Asian grouping as well as a mediator role amongst the region’s more powerful actors. If you take, for instance, Jokowi’s commitment to protecting Indonesian migrant workers abroad, he’ll need good working relations with Malaysia, a country with which Indonesia also has its diplomatic ups and downs yet hosts a significant number of Indonesian maids. Read more

Search and rescue: a growing responsibility

Regional search and rescue (SAR) issues have stolen a lot of international headlines lately. The disappearance of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 in March, and the subsequent multinational search effort, revealed substantial cracks in the region’s surveillance and SAR arrangements. But the issue of regional SAR was large and growing even before MH370. The rescue of passengers on board the ship Akademik Shokalskiy in the Southern Ocean earlier this year was watched by an estimated 32 million people world-wide. As Australia and other Antarctic nations enhance their polar programs, with more personnel and greater coverage of land and marine activities, the risk of SAR incidences will increase. This month, ASPI held a workshop to discuss issues surrounding the coordination of search and rescue operations in Australia’s area of responsibility. These are some of the key points from the discussions.

Australia has the largest search and rescue zone in the world, stretching through parts of the Indian, Pacific and Southern Oceans, and amounting to roughly 12% of the Earth’s surface. Looking south, Australia’s SAR region is vast. It extends east and west of Australia’s land mass and penetrates through the Australian Antarctic Territory to the South Pole. In the Antarctic region, our SAR area adjoins those of New Zealand and South Africa. Figure 1 below shows Australia’s Antarctic SAR region (source: Australian Maritime Safety Authority).

Australia’s Antarctic SAR region

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The pulse in Washington: Australia’s tools in supporting the pivot

Prime Minister Abbott recently met with President Obama where they discussed the ANZUS relationship.Over the last three months in Washington I’ve asked Pentagon and State Department officials and think tank analysts to rate Australia’s contribution to regional security and articulate what more Canberra could do to support the US rebalance to Asia. The overwhelming message is that Australia should have a stronger political voice in regional matters.

Many in Washington think that the biggest contribution Australia could make is to encourage a rules-based order and adherence to international norms. Specifically, Australia could step up its efforts to encourage the establishment of Codes of Conduct (COC) in the maritime domain and, in particular, in the South China Sea. Australia could be more of an asset to the US by being one of potentially many voices in Asia encouraging China to act responsibly in maritime disputes and accept the continuation of the US hub-and-spoke system of alliances.

While several Washington analysts commended Australia’s rebuke of China’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), a number were critical of Canberra’s failure to speak out more strongly on the South China Sea dispute. One analyst said that Australia should go as far as declaring that ‘China’s nine-dash line has no standing in international law’. This’d be a major departure from Australia’s current position of neutrality, but there are opportunities for Australia to take a more active stance. Read more

What is China’s strategy?

President Barack Obama and President Benigno S. Aquino III inspect the honor guard during an arrival ceremony at the Malacañang Palace in Manila, Philippines, 28 April 2014. One of the responses China has produced or helped validate with its actions is to strengthen the US-Philippines alliance.A simple question about what China has been doing to its neighbours keeps recurring: How is that smart?

The question came up in dozens of conversations at the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore and the Asia-Pacific roundtable in Kuala Lumpur. The puzzle of China’s behaviour has shaped the previous columns on Shinzo Abe’s ‘we’re back in Asia security’ speech, the differing security doctrines coming from China and the United States, the Australian Defence Minister’s musings on Asia’s potentially catastrophic situation, the loss of regional confidence, and the impact of all this on the nascent Asian security system that has served China so well.

Consider the responses China has produced or helped validate: Read more