Tag Archive for: Australia

Forward … from the (hardened) north of Australia

Australia faces a rapidly changing—and worsening—defence and security outlook that is increasingly at odds with the policy assumptions that underpinned the formulation of the 2016 defence white paper. That reality demands a rethink of our defence policy and a new defence white paper early in the term of the next government. The next white paper needs to deal more directly and robustly with a rising China that’s intent on challenging US strategic primacy across the Indo-Pacific and exploiting opportunities arising from any US strategic miscalculations, such as reducing visible support for key allies.

Thankfully, US policy statements suggest that Washington isn’t simply acceding to Beijing’s desire for a new regional hegemonic role. There’s now an intensifying strategic competition between Washington and Beijing—some call it a ‘new cold war’—that will last decades, and could easily flare into direct military confrontation. The potential for China to instigate a conflict, perhaps over Taiwan or in the South China Sea, is quite real.

Far from being a distant backwater, as was the case in the Cold War, Australia, because of its geostrategic location and vital strategic relationship with Washington, has become a frontline state in this new era of major-power competition. Within this strategic reality, northern Australia is emerging as a region of key defence significance. The hosting of US forces in the north, including a US Marine Corps deployment in Darwin for training, and the enhanced air cooperation initiative have elevated the Northern Territory’s defence importance. Key facilities such as Pine Gap and Northwest Cape remain essential components of our alliance, and must be kept secure.

I’ve already argued that our traditional approach of relying on the strategic moat of the sea–air gap for defence is outdated and needs to be reviewed, and that we should switch to a strategy of ‘forward defence in depth’ (see here, here and here). Rather than hide behind a sea–air gap which, like the French Maginot Line defences of 1940, is rapidly being overtaken by advances in military technology, we must build an Australian Defence Force that can quickly respond to threats with minimal warning and exploit greater speed and longer reach.

Australia should invest in long-range power-projection capabilities that can rapidly deploy from the north deep into the Indo-Pacific to blunt an adversary’s campaign before it can threaten our northern air and maritime approaches. Most importantly, we must acquire new capabilities quickly and not emulate the future submarine program, which won’t deliver the first operational Attack-class submarine until 2035.

In adopting a new strategy of ‘forward defence in depth’, we should seek capabilities that will enable the ADF to project power responsively and at long range, but we must not ignore the rear area of northern Australia. An essential first step to secure the rear is to harden pieces of military infrastructure to make them tougher targets for threats ranging from special forces attacks to missile strikes.

In particular, we need to ensure that we can defend against emerging ballistic and cruise missile threats to Australia’s northern bases. The starting point for this is the Royal Australian Air Force’s integrated air and missile defence project, AIR 6500, which will link together sensors, platforms and shooters to create a ‘system of systems’ for detection, decision and response to air and missile threats. Phase 1 of the project will provide the battle management system and phase 2 will shape the medium-range air defence component (though details on this are vague to say the least). AIR 6500 is due for delivery in the second half of the next decade. LAND 19 phase 7B, meanwhile, will provide a short-range air defence solution for deployed forces.

In developing our integrated air and missile defence capability, greater consideration needs to be given to how long-range sea- and land-based ballistic missile defence might also play a role. It’s certainly not a panacea for the defence of the north of Australia.

Andrew Davies and Rod Lyon are sceptical of the effectiveness of either land- or sea-based ballistic missile defence options for Australia. Their scepticism is certainly justified in terms of what would be called ‘national missile defence’. Defence of critical facilities such as RAAF Tindal and Pine Gap would be a more achievable goal. They note the potential of the sea-based combination of the Aegis Baseline 9 and Standard Missile 3 against shorter-range ballistic missiles, concluding that such a capability could be incorporated into the navy’s Hobart-class destroyers. They also note that a ballistic missile defence system for Australia should be tailored to defend vital facilities rather than the whole continent.

The missile defence equation is only going to get more difficult for the defender as hypersonic weapons emerge in coming years. Any investigation of, and investment in, long-range defences needs to recognise the risk that disruptive offensive innovations may lock out our ability to maintain an effective defence.

Hardening against non-kinetic threats—including defending sites against special forces attacks, electronic attacks, cyberwarfare and the indirect effects of counterspace capabilities—also needs to be considered. The growing importance of space, cyber and the electromagnetic spectrum as warfighting domains should shape basing requirements in the north and may demand that specialised capabilities be concentrated near critical facilities.

With these threats in mind, we also have to consider dispersed forces as a part of a comprehensive solution. RAAF Tindal, for example, is a high-value target because it is so central to the RAAF’s defence of our northern air approaches. We have ‘bare bases’ at RAAF Curtin, RAAF Scherger and RAAF Learmonth, as well as RAAF Darwin, but given Chinese advances in long-range strike capabilities, particularly with hypersonic weapons, these too are vulnerable. They are likely to be prized targets, especially if they’re hosting US forces in a crisis. We have too many critical units concentrated on too few air bases that can be too easily struck from long range.

It’s time to undertake a northern basing analysis which looks at innovative ways to operate from non-traditional airfields and considers dispersal to non-traditional operating locations in a crisis. A lesson could be learned from Sweden’s use of roads to disperse vital airpower away from vulnerable bases. The US Marine Corps is using rough fields to create forward arming and refuelling points for its F-35B as part of its island-hopping expeditionary advanced base concept. The Australian Army already supports its Tiger helicopters this way, so we need to examine whether civil northern infrastructure can be better adapted to support the ADF in wartime. That analysis could include consideration of greater civil–military integration as part of a northern Australia ‘total force’ that expands the use of reserve units.

It’s well past time to end the comfortable coast of defence policy on autopilot. To paraphrase analyst Ross Babbage, it’s a coast too long.

Indonesia and Australia: destined but disparate democracies

‘Relations with Indonesia have provided the crucible of modern Australian foreign policy.’ —Bruce Grant, 1972

The great Australian scribe, Bruce Grant, penned that thought about Indonesia–Australia tests and trials in the year of a seminal election for Australia.

Elections are again with us—this time for both Indonesia and Australia. These two most different neighbours now share democracy as well as geography. As ever, the contrasts are far greater than the similarities.

The title of Grant’s 1972 study of Oz foreign policy, The crisis of loyalty, echoes today amid an international bonfire of certainties. And the three-part Indonesia–Australia frame that Grant described still fits.

Precise foreign policy tests: ‘Indonesia has brought home to Australians the concreteness of foreign policy problems … Australia was presented with issues in which it had a specific and acknowledged interest. So there has been a non-proxy, direct and pragmatic flavour about Australian thinking and acting, in official and professional circles, on Indonesia.’

Strategic geography: Indonesia ‘acted as a “locum” for the abstract threats which Australians sensed in their bones. Indonesia gave substance to what has long been called in Australia “the threat from the north”. It brought into focus the vague and undifferentiated fears about “Asians” which Australians have traditionally held. As voyeurs, rather than participants, Australians have nurtured weird ideas about the peoples of Asia … So Indonesia was not only a test of our professionals and decision-makers; it presented an emotional challenge to come to terms with a turbulent and perhaps threatening part of the world.’

The ‘idea’ of Indonesia: The size and potential of Indonesia have intellectual and psychological influence. ‘On the one hand, Australia has learned to respect Indonesian nationalism. It wants Indonesia to be a successful nation, stable and prosperous. Australia has no designs on Indonesian territory and it has no wish to see Indonesia dismembered. On the other hand, Australia does not want Indonesia to become dominant in South-East Asia.’

Remember Grant’s Indonesia–Australia appreciation was penned nearly 50 years ago, near the start of Suharto’s long rule and before Indonesia invaded East Timor. Deep thinking and good writing can have a long shelf life. Australia now is participant, not voyeur, but the rest of Grant’s description is as fresh as today’s election headlines.

As an example of the next foreign policy test, Australia and Indonesia last month signed a free trade agreement. That deal awaits ratification on the other side of the twin elections.

On the larger and longer term destinies of strategic geography and Indonesia’s potential, consider that this giant neighbour is on track ‘to pass Australia in economic size in the 2020s and eventually in military capabilities by the 2040s’.

The economic/military projection is from Kevin Rudd. In his memoirs, Rudd joins Paul Keating to become the second former prime minister to argue that Australia should join ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Rudd follows Keating in stating that the fundamental importance of Indonesia to Australia is at the heart of the argument for Oz membership of ASEAN. (My ASPI paper on why Australia should seek that membership is here.)

Rudd raised the idea of Australia entering ASEAN during his second, short stint as prime minister in 2013, when visiting Indonesia for the annual leaders’ dialogue. He records the response from President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa.

I will always remember SBY and Marty, looking up from their meal, staring at me, smiling broadly, and saying, ‘Pak Kevin, we might be ready for you. I’m not sure that the rest of the ASEANs are ready for you, at least at this stage.’ We all laughed. But there was a method in my madness.

The vision, as Rudd writes, is to multilateralise Australia’s relationship with Indonesia while the neighbours are of similar economic size and no fundamental problems exist.

If by mid-century, the tables were radically reversed in the power relativities between the two countries, and if in the meantime the relationship between Canberra and Jakarta remained entirely bilateralised, the future health of the relationship would depend entirely on the prevailing political dynamics of each country at the time. By contrast, if both countries by then had become members of ASEAN, where bilateral relationships between member states have always been tempered by the collaborative practices, habits and culture of a wider regional institution, it would enhance the long-term stability of the Canberra–Jakarta relationship. There is a continuing complacency in Australia about how the dynamics of the Indonesia relationship will change as Indonesia becomes more powerful in its own right. The time to act in seeking to institutionalise this critical relationship within the wider framework of ASEAN is now.

Australia entering ASEAN would change and enlarge the conception of Southeast Asia. Equally, it’d change and enlarge Australia.

Having Australia and Indonesia as the great twin democracies in ASEAN would give new dimensions to this destined but disparate relationship—still the crucible of modern Oz foreign policy.

Northern Australia’s space coast

Mention the term ‘space coast’ and the image of launch pads and gantries at NASA’s John F. Kennedy Space Center in Florida come to mind. It’s a true spaceport that not only launches rockets but also stimulates the growth of the local economy and supports the clusters of aerospace companies that are located nearby.

Australia is now moving swiftly towards establishing its own space program, under the leadership of the Australian Space Agency. The agency’s recently released space strategy increases the potential for regular launches of Australian satellites on Australian launch vehicles from Australian launch sites. It’s important to base that launch capability in Australia’s north. To understand why, let’s start with some rocket science 101.

Geographic location matters a lot in the rocket-launching world. A rocket launched from near the equator can ride on the rotation of the earth as it spins west to east and pick up kinetic energy, generating a free boost in velocity that helps to achieve orbit. Proximity to the equator is the main reason the European Space Agency launches from Kourou in French Guiana rather than from Europe.

The free boost from a spinning earth is an undeniable advantage (for those into equations, see here). It can make space access cheaper because less fuel is needed for a mission. That lowers the cost per kilogram of putting a payload into orbit and allows for larger payloads. The reduction in size and weight of small satellite and ‘cubesat’ designs is further reducing the cost of space access. The amount of savings depends on the payload and the type of orbit desired.

The Top End of Australia is a mere 12 degrees south of the equator. That makes the Northern Territory an ideal location for accessing the ‘equatorial low-earth orbit’ region of space from which rapid revisits over densely populated areas of interest can be conducted for tasks such as maritime surveillance. Northern launch sites could also support the establishment of mega-constellations of communications satellites in low-earth orbit.

This isn’t pie-in-the-sky thinking. Agreements are in place to establish a launch site run by Equatorial Launch Australia near Nhulunbuy in the NT, and the Queensland government recently released a report that recommended developing launch vehicles and investigating the possibility of establishing a launch site in the state. A proposed launch site in South Australia could easily support launches into sun-synchronous and polar orbits, which are ideal for earth observation.

There are valid defence and national security rationales for developing a sovereign space launch capability. For years, Australia has played an important role in supporting US space activities from the ground, notably through the joint facility at Pine Gap and, more recently, through the space situational awareness radar and optical telescope near Exmouth in Western Australia. Developing a sovereign space launch capability will enable Australia to do much more than simply provide the real estate and skilled personnel for ground facilities.

A sovereign space launch capability would be a logical complement to a local satellite manufacturing industry and would boost self-reliant space support for the Australian Defence Force. Current defence space projects could be undertaken with a sovereign launch in mind. These include phase 2 of defence project DEF-799, which aims to establish a sovereign space-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capability by the late 2020s, and joint project 9102, which will provide the next generation of satellite communications for the ADF by 2029.

A sovereign space launch capability, operating from launch sites in the NT, northern Queensland and South Australia, would support joint ADF expeditionary forces or missions under the ‘defence of Australia’ doctrine. It would be an entirely new type of ADF capability.

It would enable Australia to burden-share in orbit with the United States to reinforce space deterrence and strengthen resilience. As space becomes increasingly contested, congested and competitive, the loss of access to it as a result of an adversary’s use of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons would render our forces deaf, dumb and blind. The ADF would then be susceptible to tactical, operational and strategic surprise and at increased risk of sustaining casualties and, ultimately, defeat. To paraphrase Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery, if we lose control of space, we lose the war and we lose it quickly.

Australia already contributes to burden-sharing with the US through ground-based space situational awareness, but we can do much more. Two approaches—augmentation and reconstitution—should be considered in shaping Australia’s future military space capability.

Augmentation would involve protecting the limited number of large, complex and expensive US satellites currently on orbit by rapidly deploying small satellites and cubesats in the build-up to a conflict to make it more difficult for an adversary to decisively attack them. Australia could contribute to the augmentation mission either by launching US-made satellites or by building and launching satellites to support US forces.

Reconstitution would entail rapidly launching small satellites and cubesats to fill any gaps left in large satellite constellations from an adversary’s use of ASATs at the outset of a military conflict. Denying the adversary the ability to deliver a decisive blow—a ‘Pearl Harbor in space’—would reduce the incentive for it to employ counterspace weapons in the first place and further strengthen space deterrence.

An Australian space launch capability could also increase our collaboration and burden-sharing with regional allies in ASEAN and with major partners such as Japan, the UK and France.

The establishment of an Australian ‘space coast’ would also stimulate the growth of the local space industry and the local economy. It would make little sense to base this industry in the south; the logistical cost of moving equipment to launch sites in the NT, for example, would wipe out any savings gained by launching close to the equator. Instead, Australia’s growing space sector should be encouraged to co-locate near the launch sites, where it could sustain a space economy centred around a northern space coast.

Establishing an Australian space coast, where Australian-built satellites are launched into orbit on Australian rockets from Australian launch sites, has the potential to facilitate the rapid growth of a high-technology sector in northern Australia.

Negotiating with terrorists: an opportunity in the Asia–Pacific

‘The only way to deal with these people is to bring them to justice. You can’t talk to them, you can’t negotiate with them.’ —US President George H.W. Bush, 2003

Negotiations between the US and the Taliban are set to continue later this month with a new round of talks planned. This marks a significant shift from a longstanding policy of never negotiating with terrorists. The talks demonstrate that political solutions are needed to end political conflicts.

Democratic governments have historically de-escalated a number of conflicts through negotiations with terrorist actors, including the Irish Republican Army, the Basque ETA and the FARC in Colombia. A RAND study has found that 43% of terrorist campaigns ended through some kind of negotiation.

As terrorism in the Asia–Pacific increases, the time is right to consider such an approach.

The region has a long history of terrorist activity, mainly by groups seeking independence from post-colonial centralised governments.

While global deaths from terrorism fell by 27% in the past year, they rose by 30% in the Asia–Pacific. The increase has been centred in three countries: the Philippines, Myanmar and Thailand have together experienced nearly 4,000 attacks over the past five years (see figure below).

This rise has broadly corresponded with the expansion of transnational terrorist franchises, such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State, into the region. Those organisations have provided local groups with funding and material support while integrating their conflicts into the struggle for a global pan-Islamic caliphate.

IS, in particular, has demonstrated an exceptional capacity to mobilise disparate local movements under its banner of jihad. In 2016, a video featured militants from Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines pledging allegiance to the group. A year later, IS-affiliated and -trained militants captured the city of Marawi in the Philippines. In the ensuing battle, 603 Filipino soldiers were killed.

The involvement of absolutist religious elements makes these groups difficult to eliminate. Because religious combatants see their cause as having transcendental significance, they’re unlikely to negotiate a political solution. Tactics employed by these groups, such as using women and children as suicide bombers and beheading prisoners, can further entrench conflict.

As IS faces territorial decline in the Middle East, it is deploying more resources and fighters to what it considers its East Asia province. That shift poses a significant risk for countries that are dealing with ongoing regional conflicts. It also reinforces the regional influence of an actor that has shown the will and capacity to harm Australians.

Separatist terrorist groups use violence to push for autonomous control over their regions. State violence to counter terrorism can also lead to greater support for the terrorist groups, furthering conflict.

Terrorist groups generally look to abandon violence if they’re in military retreat, they perceive themselves to be in a good negotiating position, or they are given enough incentives to negotiate.

Increasing internationalisation of conflicts changes the incentives to negotiate for both parties.

Local groups risk their separatist and nationalist goals being subsumed into or competing with the agenda of international terrorist franchises. Affiliation with IS or al-Qaeda may also hamper open dialogue with government. Groups may be more willing to compromise so that their political objectives are at least partially met.

There are also changed incentives for governments, which may be more willing to compromise to prevent international groups from gaining footholds.

This has already happened. A recent peace deal in Bangsamoro in the southern Philippines brokered by Malaysia came about in part because of a fear of local groups aligning with IS.

Australia has an active and ongoing interest in the stability of the Asia–Pacific. It is currently promoting peacebuilding in Myanmar and peace and security initiatives in the Philippines. Examples include expenditure of $52.6 million on Operation Augury in the Philippines and $24 million on conflict resolution efforts in Marawi. Further expenditure is planned to promote stability in the Philippines, including $90 million on childhood education in conflict-affected areas.

Australia could expand on this contribution by adopting the role of a good-faith mediator between states and local terrorist groups.

In the short term, Australia can support the conditions needed to bring all parties to the negotiating table. This includes promoting confidence-building measures, such as weapons hand-ins or releases of political prisoners.

Australia can also share its domestic experiences and expertise to reduce the risk of internationalisation of terrorist groups. Greater resources and cooperation will help to reduce access to terrorist propaganda and prevent fighters from travelling to conflict zones in the Asia–Pacific.

18 years and counting: Australian counterterrorism, threats and responses

Australia’s counterterrorism architecture is complex, embracing hard and soft power, and it’s challenging to determine where it begins and ends. It also includes initiatives that the government rightly can’t publicise.

My latest ASPI report, 18 years and counting: Australian counterterrorism, threats and responses, details the evolution of this architecture since the 9/11 terrorist attacks as it pertains to the threat of Salafi-jihadism.

Australia’s 2015 counterterrorism strategy emphasises the need for a partnership between government, the private sector and communities to counter the threat of terrorism.

The strategy rests on five key pillars. Terrorist activity must be disrupted; the appeal of extremist ideologies must be reduced through counter-narratives and programs and initiatives aimed at social cohesion; people must be discouraged from resorting to violence to express their views; global counterterrorism efforts must be supported; and the government must be able to respond to any terrorist event.

A year before the strategy was issued, the threat level was raised to ‘probable’, which means that credible intelligence indicates that individuals or groups ‘continue to possess the intent and capability to conduct a terrorist attack in Australia’. It’s unlikely that the level will change soon, especially as it is evident that al-Qaeda is making a resurgence and, despite the loss of its territory in Iraq and Syria, Islamic State is far from defeated.

When it comes to foreign policy, we’re trying to live up to our reputation as an upholder of the rules-based order and a principal advocate of multilateralism. Australia was a founding member of the Global Counterterrorism Forum, an intergovernmental platform addressing the vulnerability of people to terrorism and violent extremism. Through the forum, several best practices have been adopted in relation to violent extremism, foreign terrorist fighters, criminal justice and the rule of law.

Even though Australia’s foreign aid contribution continues to shrink, there remains a commitment to address the drivers of violent extremism at all levels. In March 2017, the then foreign minister, Julie Bishop, launched a new policy framework (Development approaches to countering violent extremism) that sought to counter and prevent violent extremism through education, civil society, governance, livelihoods, justice and the rule of law. Bishop also committed Australia to providing Iraq with humanitarian assistance to help stabilise liberated areas and to support projects to build social cohesion.

With strong input from the Australian Federal Police, Australia has played a key role in setting up the Jakarta Centre for Law Enforcement Cooperation. Among its achievements, the centre has helped develop Indonesia’s Densus 88, ‘one of the world’s best counter-terrorism units’.

AUSTRAC has also played an important role in promoting regional engagement on counterterrorism through its involvement in launching the Fintel Alliance, a public–private partnership combating money laundering and terrorism financing. Together with regional partners, AUSTRAC works to enhance regional efforts to combat the financing of terrorism, including organising, to date, four regional summits and facilitating regional risk assessment on terrorism financing.

On the domestic front, one wonders whether we have been as effective. Since 2001, more than 60 new statutes were adopted on areas such as detention, passport revocation, telecommunications and post-sentence preventative detention. Some of these measures are controversial, raising serious questions as to whether they undermine core liberal, democratic values. Professor George Williams, dean of the law faculty at the University of New South Wales, and a leading constitutional scholar, has captured the concern by provocatively claiming that successive Australian governments have launched a ‘legal assault on Australian democracy’.

One wonders whether imposing continued detention and control orders after a sentence has been served, granting a minister the power to revoke passports, and introducing an Australian values statement, among many other measures, have helped promote security. Might they, and the rhetoric around them, have politicised the debate over security, often at the expense of minorities? Dr Ibrahim Abu Mohamed, the Grand Mufti of Australia, captured the exhaustion and anger of many in the Muslim community at being repeatedly called upon to condemn acts of terrorism when he said of his faith: ‘You don’t ask to disavow medicine if some doctors exploited it, you don’t ask to disavow law if some lawyers misused it.’

Clearly, the security services have faced an enormous challenge over the past 18 years, as the terrorist threat evolved and new cases emerged. The establishment was forced to rethink its predictors, its methods and its understanding of the new threat environment. In November 2018, a few weeks after the Bourke Street incident, Victoria Police arrested three individuals whose passports had been cancelled earlier in the year, alleging that they were planning a mass-casualty attack. In 2017, the security services uncovered the Sydney Airport plot, which involved a plan to place a bomb in a meat grinder to be carried aboard a passenger jet.

What has made the job of detecting such activity so challenging in the post-caliphate era is that a large percentage of those convicted were under 21 when they committed their offences and there was no evidence that many of them had direct or formal ties to Salafi-jihadi groups.

ASIO’s 2017–18 annual report made no mention of far-right, white supremacist activity, as there was arguably no evidence of such a threat emerging. There has, however, been plenty of evidence of Salafi-jihadi activity; over 80% of the convictions for terrorism offences in the past three years involved adherents of Salafi-jihadism. ASIO’s 2016–17 report noted that there was minimal far-right activity in Australia.

ASIO Director-General Duncan Lewis told a Senate estimates hearing that, horrific as the Christchurch attacks were, the calculus had not changed because, out of seven attacks and 15 thwarted attacks, only one was allegedly perpetrated by a right-wing extremist and that case was still before the courts.

This doesn’t mean that ASIO isn’t focused on far-right, white supremacist activity, but at a time of limited resources, tough decisions must be made and currently there’s no evidence of a serious threat in Australia from the extreme right.

Australia’s counterterrorism environment is staffed by dedicated individuals, committed to protecting Australians. The past 18 years have shown us that terrorism evolves and innovates and we must too.

But safety and protection begin with the individual.

We must change our public discourse and work better at social cohesion and identify individuals at risk of being led down the violent extremist path so that with early help they can be dissuaded from making terrible mistakes.

Tough times shift Canberra on Oz international broadcasting

Among the many reasons I’m an optimist is the decades I’ve spent inside two strange but wonderful Australian institutions.

One magnificent institution is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, where I toiled as a journalist for 33 happy years. Most of my time as an ABC hack was in Canberra—in the old parliament, then up the hill to the giant flag and the unique building that has the House of Representatives and Senate on its wings and the executive in the rear.

Only in Oz would the prime minister and all other ministers get to their offices through the back door.

For years I’ve struggled feebly for a punchline about the PM and cabinet residing out the back: rear-mounted engine … the ultimate backseat drivers … how do you see the way ahead from the arse-end of the building?

There must be a metaphor to fit. Please advise.

The ABC and Parliament House are marvellous while also being maddening and mysterious. Maybe that’s how it is with all major institutions, which brings me to my jest about how these two great entities have shaped my optimism.

A while ago, when I wrote a cynical piece on the three unholy rules that govern Canberra, I was tackled on my sunny self-characterisation: ‘If you’re such a congenital optimist, how can you write this dark stuff?’

The answer is simple: I’m an optimist because of decades in the ABC and covering the Oz parliament. And, of course, I’m a dark realist because of decades in the ABC and covering the Oz parliament.

When they’re at the best, both institutions make you rejoice. At their worst, when they mangle their purpose and mislay their principles, the proper response is rage.

For the last couple of years I’ve raged at the ABC and Canberra for the disastrous dismantling of Oz international broadcasting.

Gutting international TV, ending shortwave and exiting the news and journalism contest in the Asia–Pacific is lousy policy and appalling judgement, hugely damaging to Australian foreign policy. I’ve inflicted many columns on The Strategist, testified to one Senate hearing and made submissions to three inquiries. For an overview of the recent dumbness and optimistic prescriptions for a better broadcasting future, see ASPI’s paper Hard news and free media as the sharp edge of Australian soft power.

In the way of Canberra, bad policy is slowly being confronted. The ABC is dimly grasping how much it has abandoned its charter responsibility, enacted by parliament, ‘to transmit to countries outside Australia broadcasting programs of news, current affairs, entertainment and cultural enrichment’.

The ABC is putting its leadership back together after last year losing both its chair and managing director in the same week. The chairman fired the managing director because she wouldn’t bend to his will; then the chair had to go because he was too eager to bend to the government’s will. Sad, bad days for Aunty.

The ABC rebuild has taken a significant step with the appointment of Ita Buttrose as the new chair. At last, the ABC board has a chair who actually knows journalism and media! How novel. And promising.

The main cause for optimism is that both sides of Oz politics have grasped that the destruction of Australia’s international broadcasting voice in the South Pacific and Southeast Asia hurts our foreign policy interests.

The government’s announcement of $17.1 million, over three years, to supply Australian commercial television programs to broadcasters in the South Pacific is a facile and clumsy initiative that doesn’t amount to strategy.

The positive point is that it’s a sign of a government that understands Australia needs to get back into the media game in its region. A strange first step is at least a step. The opposition also embraces an international broadcasting rethink and rebuild.

A new political consensus is forming on international broadcasting, as one element of Canberra’s darkening view of international prospects.

Australia proclaims its first strategic priority now is to manage great-power competition. The Oz step-up in the South Pacific—the Pacific pivot—is the response of a nation that sees its strategic interests in Papua New Guinea and the islands directly challenged by China.

Australia proclaims its enduring fidelity to the alliance as it grapples with the arrival of the post-American world, a multipolar era of shifting power where US military dominance doesn’t translate to other dimensions.

Tough times demand hard thinking and good policy.

Australia is awaking to the costs of absent-mindedly discarding an 80-year tradition of broadcasting to the Asia–Pacific.

My preferred label for this new era is hot peace, not the new cold war. But the cold war elements remind Canberra of a time when international broadcasting was a vital instrument of state policy. Look around today and note China’s arrival as a major international media player, the big Russian effort, and how Britain is boosting the BBC World Service.

In an era of power completion and contest over the nature of the international system, Australia must again power up its voice to serve its interests, influence and values.

The US shouldn’t go to war with China over Taiwan—and nor should Australia

Paul Dibb, in his recent Strategist post, writes that America’s strategic position in Asia would be fatally undermined if it didn’t go to war with China if China attacked Taiwan, and that Australia’s alliance with America would be fatally undermined if we didn’t then go to war with China too. The conclusion he draws is that, in the event of an unprovoked Chinese attack on Taiwan, America should go to war with China, and so should Australia.

I think Dibb’s premises are correct, but his conclusion is wrong. Failing to come to Taiwan’s aid would seriously weaken and perhaps destroy America’s position in Asia, and our alliance with America would be seriously weakened if not destroyed if we failed to support the US. But it doesn’t follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan.

That depends on who would win the war. Such a war, like any war, would be a calculus of uncertainties, but at the very least one could say that a swift, cheap and decisive US victory over China would be very unlikely. America’s military power is very great, but China’s military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable.

China also has big advantages of location and resolve: Taiwan is closer to China than to America, and it matters more to the Chinese. And any hopes that US nuclear forces would swing the balance back America’s way run up against China’s capacity to retaliate in kind, and the risk of a nuclear exchange targeting US cities would at least have to be considered by US leaders in deciding to go to war.

These sombre facts would have to be taken into account in Washington and Canberra in any deliberations about war. They imply that the choice in both capitals would not be the simple one that Dibb suggests—a choice between going to war and preserving the US-led order in Asia or stepping back and destroying it. A long, costly and indecisive US–China war would destroy the regional order anyway, because America’s leadership in Asia wouldn’t survive a war with China.

Most probably it would lead to America’s withdrawal from Asia—just as its long, indecisive but far less costly wars in the Middle East have led it to withdraw from that region. If so, Australia’s alliance with America would wither too. So the real choice Washington would face would be to abandon its position in Asia by fighting China, or by not fighting China. Given the cost and risks of war with a nuclear power, it is easy to see which America should choose, and I think probably would choose.

Dibb’s counterargument is that America was willing to fight a nuclear war to save West Germany from the Soviets in the Cold War. That’s a compelling argument to the extent that China’s ambitions today pose as big a threat to America as the Soviets’ did in the Cold War. It was the fear that the expansion of Soviet power would threaten the survival of America itself which drove US leaders and voters to accept the risk of nuclear war to make containment work. I don’t think that China poses a similar threat today, which is why I don’t think America should fight China over Taiwan.

But do Americans believe that China poses a similar threat today? That’s actually the big question that underlies the entire future of America’s position in Asia in the face of China’s ambitions, and it deserves closer scrutiny. So far it seems not, because for all the tough talk from Vice President Mike Pence and others in recent months, no US political leader has tried to convince Americans that they should be willing to fight a nuclear war with China. Indeed, US policy as set out in the 2018 nuclear posture review doesn’t even acknowledge America’s vulnerability to Chinese nuclear forces. We’d be wise not to assume that the Americans would risk a nuclear war with China until they say they are willing to do so.

If this is wrong and America chose war, I think it’s clear that Australia would be better off staying out of it. Iraq should have taught us that it makes no sense to support an ally in a war it can’t win, and the stakes are much higher this time.

Finally, a minor point. Whether our commitments under the ANZUS treaty cover Taiwan is not quite as clear as Dibb suggests. No doubt Washington believes that it does, and clearly expects us to support the US in a conflict. To the contemporary policymaker this is what matters, which is why I agree with Dibb that failing to support America would be fatal to the alliance.

But that requirement is not evident in the text of the treaty itself, at least as interpreted by the foremost legal authority on the matter, J.G. Starke, in his book The ANZUS Treaty Alliance. He says it’s clear from the context that ‘Pacific Area’ in Article 4 doesn’t include Taiwan, because Australia didn’t want it to.

Why the Quad won’t ever be an Asian NATO

The most recent meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Singapore last November suggests that the US, India, Japan and Australia regard the initiative as a geostrategic multiplier in the Indo-Pacific. Despite the evident convergence, there have been few signs of a genuine renewal of the Quad’s purpose since it was resuscitated in 2017 after a decade-long hiatus.

This is underscored by the absence of a unified declaration following the Quad’s meetings in 2017 and 2018. Although individual statements released by the four members after the meetings agreed on the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific, they overlapped on few points of detail. And although Quad boosters assert that its foundations are stronger today than they were a decade ago, the absence of a single joint statement betrays the inherent limits of the initiative.

The recent revival of the Quad was triggered by the return of Shinzo Abe as Japanese prime minister in 2012. Shortly after returning to office, Abe wrote an essay promoting a ‘democratic Asian security diamond’ to forestall Chinese ‘coercion’.  The proposal endorsed the view that the US, Japan, Australia and India should cooperate to ‘safeguard the maritime commons stretching from the Indian Ocean region to the western Pacific’.

India’s threat perception vis-à-vis China has increased in the decade since the Quad was first initiated, pushing it closer to Washington and US allies in Asia like Australia and Japan. The increase in Chinese naval deployments in the Indian Ocean and the rapid modernisation of China’s nuclear weapons program, including its sea-launched ballistic-missile capabilities, have exercised Indian planners and provoked a greater emphasis on the link between national strategy and maritime force projection. These concerns have been overlaid by India’s apprehension about the growing reach of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Australia’s concerns over China’s strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific and its overt militarisation activities in the South China Sea have been reinforced by revelations of interference by Beijing in Australian domestic affairs. Disclosures of the Chinese Communist Party’s influence in Australia have included attempts to bribe high-level officials, pressure for Chinese-language media outlets to toe the line on key issues, monitoring of Chinese students in Australian universities, and recruitment of sympathetic advocates to articulate the CCP’s position in the media.

These factors have coalesced to create a more permissive environment for Australia’s participation in the Quad and other minilateral security initiatives. The Quad has the support of the opposition Labor Party as well as the Coalition government.

For the US, returning to the Quad after a 10-year hiatus dovetails with the Trump administration’s preference for a more explicit acknowledgement of competition with Beijing, not just in the strategic arena but also in the economic domain. Washington’s continuation of freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea—notwithstanding the clear risks of military escalation—and the Trump administration’s appetite for zero-sum confrontation with Beijing over trade, signal a renewed determination by the US to contain Chinese great-power ambitions.

While Trump is less focused than his predecessors on promoting the idea of a concert of democracies in the Indo-Pacific, the Quad aligns with his disdain for large-scale multilateralism and his fixation on burden-sharing with allies and security partners. Perhaps more importantly, the Quad maps closely to the Pentagon’s vision of developing America’s Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships ‘into a networked security architecture capable of deterring aggression, maintaining stability, and ensuring free access to common domains’.

However, given the Quad’s history, there are serious doubts about whether it can be sustained. As La Trobe University’s Nick Bisley has argued, ‘there is not a single vital national interest that all four share’. Perhaps tellingly, in contrast to 2007, the resurrection of the Quad in 2017 elicited very little apparent concern on the part of Beijing. This reflects China’s broader reaction to US-led minilateral initiatives, as distinct from specific initiatives taken as part of US bilateral security alliances, which tend to attract vociferous condemnation from China.

Beijing probably feels reasonably confident that underlying divisions between US allies will prevent an Asian NATO from emerging and that most, if not all, American allies in the region (and those not allied to the US, such as India and Indonesia) will avoid formal multilateral security commitments because of their acute dependence on Chinese trade and investment. Ultimately, Beijing’s reading of minilateralism’s (and, by extension, the Quad’s) prospects may be close to the mark.

All four parties have clear incentives to constrain, and in some cases push back against, Beijing’s growing assertiveness, but that won’t necessarily sustain the Quad beyond its recent resurrection. There’s little indication that members are serious about mapping the Quad’s future in detail, and while perspectives within ASEAN are mixed, Singaporeans (perhaps surprisingly) remain the most sceptical about Quad.

One school of thought may be that the Quad parties will discover a renewed purpose only if Beijing uses force in a regional contingency. That may be credible, but it’s more likely that the US, Japan and Australia will focus all their efforts on leveraging existing bilateral security alliances in response to a major uptick in Chinese military activity. And it is difficult to envisage India seriously buying into a conflict in the South China Sea when even Japan and Australia place caveats on how much their alliances with the US formally commit them to do in certain scenarios.

In the final analysis, we’re likely to look back on the Quad’s resurrection in 2017 as another false dawn for the development of meaningful security arrangements outside formal alliances in the Indo-Pacific.

Intelligence oversight or out of sight? Recommendations for legislative review

Australia’s national intelligence community (NIC) has grown and evolved significantly in recent years. But its key oversight and accountability mechanisms have remained comparatively unchanged and legislatively constrained.

By their very nature, intelligence agencies need to be secretive, and the standards of accountability and oversight they’re subject to necessarily differ from those applicable to other parts of government.

At the same time, the Australian people needs to have confidence that their intelligence agencies are acting with legality, efficacy and efficiency.

In our recent submission to the Australian government’s comprehensive review of the legal framework governing the NIC, led by former defence secretary Dennis Richardson, we considered the oversight and accountability measures required to maintain the confidence of the Australian people in the work of the NIC.

Traditionally, transparency and secrecy have been viewed as diametrically opposed. But the two imperatives can coexist in a democracy, especially one that has strong, independent and well-resourced oversight institutions.

Our submission proposes several reforms to Australia’s oversight-related legislation, including the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security Act 1986, the Independent National Security Legislation Monitor Act 2010 and the Intelligence Services Act 2001.

The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS) is an independent statutory officeholder who reviews the activities of the intelligence agencies. In July 2017, the Turnbull government announced the establishment of a new home affairs portfolio and a strengthened role for the attorney-general in overseeing intelligence, security and law enforcement agencies.

As part of the restructuring, the IGIS, along with the Independent National Security Legislation Monitor (INSLM) and the Commonwealth Ombudsman, was moved from the Prime Minister and Cabinet portfolio to Attorney-General’s.

The attorney-general continues to exercise certain powers and functions under the ASIO Act, including the power to authorise warrants and special intelligence operations. Putting the IGIS under the attorney-general’s purview means that it’s no longer separate from the portfolio that’s responsible for authorising warrants. IGIS should be transferred back to PM&C, where it sat since its foundation, to help guarantee its complete independence as an oversight body.

The INSLM is responsible for reviewing and assessing the effectiveness and appropriateness of Australia’s national security and counterterrorism legislation. It is a part-time role that’s supported by a small number of permanent staff. But the resourcing of the office makes it difficult for it to keep up with the vast number of new and increasingly innovative counterterrorism laws.

Consideration should be given to making the INSLM a full-time role so that the office can fulfil its core function, especially given that there has been no significant improvement in parliamentary oversight. The government should be legislatively required to table timely responses to the INSLM’s reports. This would at least oblige it to demonstrate that it has read and taken on board the INSLM’s advice.

The Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security (PJCIS) is somewhat of a ‘closed shop’ to crossbench MPs and senators: the legislation refers to members of ‘recognised political parties’, effectively precluding minor parties and independents.

The committee’s oversight is limited to reviewing the administration and expenditure of the NIC, addressing matters referred to it by the responsible minister or by a resolution of parliament, and reporting its recommendations to parliament and the responsible minister. It can’t review the NIC’s intelligence-gathering and assessment priorities or its operational activities.

Nor does it have the power to initiate its own inquiries into matters relating to the activities of an NIC agency. It is the only committee of parliament that doesn’t have the power to inquire into the operations of the agencies it oversees.

By comparison, similar parliamentary committees in Australia’s Five Eyes counterparts (the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand) have much wider oversight of their intelligence and security services.

The UK Intelligence and Security Committee can consider operational matters when requested by the prime minister and when they don’t involve ongoing operations and it’s in the national interest.

The Canadian National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians is authorised to review:

‘(a) the legislative, regulatory, policy, administrative and financial framework for national security and intelligence;

(b) any activity carried out by a department that relates to national security or intelligence, unless the activity is an ongoing operation and the appropriate Minister determines that the review would be injurious to national security; and

(c) any matter relating to national security or intelligence that a minister of the Crown refers to the Committee.’

Parliamentary oversight of the intelligence agencies requires strengthening of the PJCIS’s legislative powers by widening its remit to include the ability to analyse the NIC’s operations and conduct its own inquiries.

One argument that has been made against this idea is that these powers, such as the power to review operations, are covered by the IGIS Act. However, the IGIS’s primary role is to oversee the activities of the intelligence agencies; it doesn’t focus on whether they should be conducting those activities. This is a key area in which the expanded remit of the PJCIS is crucial and in which legislative changes are required.

The committee has largely been bipartisan, so the risk of political interference in agency operations from an overzealous committee is negligible. Some combination of the UK and Canadian approaches might work best in the Australian context.

Finally, the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing partnership gives Australian intelligence organisations extraordinary global reach, providing irreplaceable access to information and cutting-edge capabilities.

All of the Five Eyes allies have legislative oversight arrangements. But they differ in their frameworks. There’s no single overarching oversight body or coordinated system of checks and balances that aims to ensure the legality and propriety of Five Eyes intelligence-sharing and activities.

Given Australia’s increased sharing and use of intelligence across governments, consideration should be given to including provisions that allow the IGIS and the PJCIS to oversee some aspects of Australia’s role within Five Eyes.

We appreciate that this measure will be challenging: the arrangements aren’t a single neat program of information exchange that could be easily scrutinised. They include many agencies beyond the remit of the IGIS (in Australia’s case), and the ‘exchange’ and source/receiving country would further complicate any review process.

But in many ways, this is precisely why the proposal should be considered: robust oversight and accountability measures will maintain the confidence of the Australian people in the intrinsic value of the Five Eyes partnership.

The NIC has grown and transformed dramatically in recent years to meet the unprecedented challenges to Australia’s security. Their combined functions are more vital to our national security than ever.

The proposed reforms we’ve outlined will strengthen independent oversight and accountability and maintain the confidence of the Australian people in the work of the NIC.

ANZUS in the age of disruption

The network of US alliances built in the early years of the Cold War has proven remarkably resilient. Nowadays, it’s easy—and wrong—to take that resilience for granted. Back in 1997, Stephen Walt, analysing alliance durability, penned one of the classic articles in international relations, ‘Why alliances endure or collapse’. He argued that durable alliances turned upon hegemonic leadership; the alliance’s importance as a symbol of credibility or resolve; the disproportionate influence of particular interest groups in a country’s domestic politics; the level of alliance institutionalisation; and shared strategic identities.

Not all of those factors apply with equal weight to the ANZUS alliance. I don’t see much evidence, for example, that its durability turns upon the disproportionate influence of particular interest groups—indeed, popular support for ANZUS is almost always broad and strong. Nor is the alliance held together by institutionalisation: if anything, ANZUS is under-institutionalised. But the remaining factors—hegemonic leadership, the importance of the alliance to both the US and Australia as a symbol of resolve, and shared strategic identities—do look highly relevant.

Walt was writing when the alliances were 40 or 50 years old. Today, we’re another 20-odd years down the track. So we’re talking now about alliances that are 60 or 70 years old—and have weathered the Cold War, the ‘lost’ decade of the 1990s, and the ‘war on terror’.

Moreover, one might fondly imagine that in recent years US alliances have been given a new lease of life by the return of major-power competition to the international order. Alliances of states typically find greater purpose—because of greater threat—in an era of interstate rivalry than they do in an era of violent non-state actors, or in an era of comfortable unipolarity. So, rationally, we should be entering a period of reinvigorated Western alliances.

But we aren’t. While the evidence is anecdotal and impressionistic, US alliances seem to have become weaker in recent years. Certainly, the 45th US president’s disdain for alliance commitments—a sentiment that runs deeper than the longstanding burden-sharing issue—hasn’t helped. It’s undercut the contribution that hegemonic leadership usually makes to alliance durability. And, by reducing alliances to self-interest and transactionalism, it’s blurred the idea of shared strategic identities.

European members of NATO have begun to talk openly of security options beyond the alliance. In France, President Emmanuel Macron has recently canvassed the possibility of an ‘independent’ army to reduce Europe’s reliance on the US. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has spoken of the need for EU leaders ‘to look at the vision of one day creating a real, true European army’.

If the US chooses to play a smaller role in NATO, there would still be 28 other members of the alliance available to take up some of the slack. True, they’d find life harder, given how much Washington currently brings to NATO. But the same can’t be said of US allies in Asia, each bound to Washington in a tight, bilateral relationship. If the US decides to reduce its involvement in Asia, its bilateral allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand) do not share residual alliance obligations towards each other.

Here in Canberra, the future of ANZUS has emerged as a critical, if largely unspoken, question for the future of Australian strategic policy. That’s because ANZUS has long been a one-stop shop for all of our security needs—it backstops Australian security, allows us to make a meaningful contribution to the global and regional order, grants us access to substantial quantities of finished and raw intelligence, and underpins a defence force that’s well armed and well trained. A weakened ANZUS, let alone no ANZUS at all, would leave big holes to fill in our strategic policy.

But the current problems in US alliances aren’t solely created by the occupant of the Oval Office. It’s still far from clear what we’re witnessing in the US. Is it a short-term deviation from the strategic mainstream, or a longer-term shifting of the mainstream itself? We may not know the answer to that question until sometime in the 2020s.

And regardless of the answer, a broader structural shift in the international order—towards greater multipolarity—is continuing to eat away at alliance cohesion. As Walt observes:

Alliances will tend to be less robust in a multipolar world, because the major powers will possess more options as their numbers increase, and because shifts in the distribution of capabilities will be more frequent when there are more great powers in the system. It will also be more difficult for each state to determine where the greatest threat lies, and international alliances are likely to be more flexible and fluid.

The emergence of a world in which international alliances are ‘more flexible and fluid’ would be discomfiting to Australian policymakers. ‘Flexible’ alliances carry connotations of voluntary—and optional—fulfilment of obligations; ‘fluid’ ones suggest relationships bereft of solidity.

Australia is certainly redoubling its efforts to build new strategic relationships with a range of countries in Asia. And our alliance experience hasn’t prepared us well for that venture—ANZUS’s closeness and intimacy don’t translate well to the awkward political and cultural domain that is Southeast Asia, for example. In a shifting regional security environment, Asian countries are all trying to cross the river by feeling the stones. Everyone’s treading lightly and keeping their options open.

If alliances are on the wane, and new, less onerous forms of strategic partnership on the rise, we have a major challenge ahead. Critics of ANZUS allege that it has made Australia too subservient to the US. But Australian security would be poorer without it.