Tag Archive for: ADF

An Australia DARPA would need to do development as well as research

In a recent ASPI report, Robert Clark and Peter Jennings argued for the establishment of an Australian version of the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Conceptually, it’s a very good suggestion. However, we need to think deeper about how to take advantage of Australia’s pools of private capital, which are among the largest in the world due to compulsory superannuation. The problem isn’t just about overcoming current budget allocation issues in universities. We need to industrialise innovation and marry it to our strategic purposes.

The need for a new approach to domestic innovation was also raised in a Strategist post by Charley Feros that posed a very relevant question: ‘Why is it so hard for Australia’s innovators to win acceptance by Defence?’

The same question has been asked by innovative Australian companies over decades. To answer it simply, the Department of Defence sees local innovations as carrying a higher risk than those coming from traditional providers overseas. The DARPA proposal advanced by Clark and Jennings is unlikely to overcome this dynamic. Nothing turns the private capital tap off faster than when the pathway of technology development and commercialisation is obscured by opaque and uncertain bureaucracy.

The 2016 defence industry policy statement recognised the problem highlighted by Feros, promising that ‘Defence will change its culture and business processes to systematically remove barriers to innovation’. But not much has changed. In fact, no substantive improvements have occurred since the Howard government’s 1998 strategic policy statement with its claim that ‘Defence and industry will create a culture of one team—Team Australia.’

The strategic environment, however, has changed, and it is becoming increasingly less forgiving. In the past we could promote technological superiority over potential regional adversaries to offset our obvious lack of numbers, but now we are likely to have neither qualitative nor quantitative advantages.

So, we have two significant challenges in addressing this innovation problem. The first is the Defence Department’s culture. The proposal to form an Australian DARPA is correct, but to house it within the Defence Science and Technology Group, with its department-oriented organisational structure and reporting lines, is unlikely to produce the outcomes that the nation needs.

The other challenge is developing asymmetric capabilities to help balance the operational equation, for which we need rapidity and risk-taking. Hans Ohff and Jon Stanford have also highlighted the need for asymmetric capability development.

The answer to both challenges is to establish an Australian DARPA, but to bypass Defence’s culture and bureaucracy. We need an organisation that fosters innovation through constructive risk-taking that addresses the highest potential payoff and develops the most forward-looking technology, not just research. This means a focus on technology readiness levels 4–7.

It also means bringing in people from industry who understand risk in an organisational structure that is agile and not burdened with process-oriented bureaucracy. At the very least, such an organisation would have to have independence from Defence, with its own budget and its own staffing arrangements outside of the Australian public service. It would need to be free to set its own goals and it should have direct reporting lines to the defence minister or an appropriate junior minister. Everything will flow from getting the right people in place.

An Australian DARPA could also take advantage of the immense pools of private investment capital in Australia to augment public funding. Public funding can still provide the backbone of the activity, but private investment could be sought on a case-by-case basis to increase the capital available, or to potentially accelerate the process. Private investors typically have a considerably greater propensity for risk-taking than public-sector organisations, and private investor funding would conceivably be available if innovation projects were likely to result in commercial returns in commercially attractive timeframes.

A public–private partnership approach is therefore necessary, with clear terms and a framework that recognises that it won’t be the usual master–servant relationship, but a partnership with mutual recognition of each other’s needs. Agreements would need to be reached about how and for how long private capital would be tied up, and what the rights for use would be on conclusion.

This type of Australian DARPA could be tasked specifically to investigate and develop asymmetric technologies within a sovereign construct so that we have maximum flexibility to address a rapidly changing strategic environment. Given the strategic nature of sought-after ends, potential developmental projects that could provide asymmetric effects could be regularly sought from academic institutions, research organisations and the private sector.

Collaboration with alliance partners would need to be judiciously assessed. In this increasingly dynamic regional environment, we want to avoid being restricted in what we can do by the US International Traffic in Arms Regulations and US policy more generally.

The benefits of a DARPA-esque organisation in Australia during this time of increasing regional tension would be immense. We would be able to identify projects and technologies that would provide asymmetric effects of direct relevance to our force structure and our modus operandi. We would be better placed to take control of our own destiny rather than relying upon external parties. The Australian Defence Force would directly benefit from being in an improved operational position.

We could use these projects to build the nation’s industrial capability and capacity, not only in the defence industry but in our wider industrial base.

In addition, we could harness the largely untapped funds of private investors for the national good and the development of national capability. And we could potentially contribute to the efforts of our allies by being a source of innovation rather than just a consumer.

Crafting a way ahead for effective Australian deterrence against Chinese threats

ASPI recently published an important report by Paul Dibb and Richard Brabin-Smith that focuses on how to plan for Australia’s defence in an environment with reduced warning time. The report raises a broad set of questions about how to know when an event might set in motion a chain of events that pose a direct threat to liberal democratic nations and how to respond early and effectively.

It also raises the question of how to shape the Australian Defence Force’s capabilities so that they can be inserted into a crisis early enough to provide confidence that effective tools to manage escalation are available as well. In essence, the report focuses on ways for Australia to enhance the government’s and the public’s ability to understand the events that affect them and provide a warning in time for Australia to prepare for and manage any crises that arise.

A key example of the warning-time challenge is China’s current posture towards Australia. A particularly noteworthy development is the Chinese ramp-up of pressure on Australia, namely, directly threatening the use of force. Here’s how Dibb put it in a recent interview we did with him:

The Chinese have been clearly communicating for some time that it is now time to teach Australia a lesson. They used similar language against Vietnam in 1979 prior to their invasion. And there are many ways they could generate force to pressure Australia, without directly striking the country, such as take us on in our 200-mile exclusive economic zone, threatening our offshore energy platforms. And by so doing put the challenge directly to Australia.

The Australian government has committed to acquiring a long-range strike capability and to spending serious money in that area. But that is in the mid-term. What should Australia do now as part of a crisis-management approach to such a threat?

A growing focus in the Australian defence community is on options for providing the ADF with a long-range strike capability more quickly. For example, Marcus Hellyer recently raised the possibility of Australia acquiring B-21 Raiders from the United States, but that’s a mid-term option at best.

Again, what can we do now to respond effectively to dangerous sabre-rattling? Clearly, this is an area in which cooperation with the US can provide both allies with enhanced deterrent options now and shape a more effective way ahead. For Australia, it’s about how to build long-range strike into the ADF over the mid- to long term. For the US, it’s about getting a better understanding of how bombers and the US Navy fleet can work more effectively together.

In other words, there’s an option that provides a building block for the way ahead to a long-range-strike-enabled ADF and for the US to learn how to more effectively operate its joint naval and air capabilities in the Pacific both within its own services and with allies.

In the past, the US has brought B-1 bombers to participate in exercises with the ADF in northern Australia. Now, a rotational force of B-2s could bring a stealth bomber capability to Australia’s defence. It would not only be an important input to responding to China but would also underscore to the Chinese that their military build-up in the Pacific and specifically directed against Australia is not in their own interests.

For now, it would be a modest response, but the integration of US Air Force bombers into the ADF has to be taken seriously in the face of continued direct threats against Australia. By training the Royal Australian Air Force and the Royal Australian Navy to work with the B-2s, B-1s and B-52s, those two key Australian power-projection forces can train with an operational long-range strike asset. That would demonstrate that long-range strike isn’t primarily focused on reaching downtown Beijing, but rather on providing rapidly deployable enhancements to air–naval taskforces throughout the Indo-Pacific region.

Such a strategy would also enable Australia to determine if the B-21 is the right fit or whether there are other ways to bring long-range strike to the operating force. And it would help guide decisions on building the kind of sovereign missile industry Australia desires—which is not simply about buying off-the-shelf US or European kit. For it’s also clear that allies like the US need a different approach to the one they have followed to date to get a less expensive and more effective mix of strike assets.

And as the US shapes a more effective support strategy for allies’ approaches in the region, the US Navy and the US Air Force will need to work on more effective integration of the bomber force with the operating fleet. In our forthcoming book for US Naval Institute Press on maritime kill webs, 21st century warfighting and deterrence, we argue that a kill-web approach that integrates bomber and fleet operations can empower significantly greater collaboration between air and sea services and provide a more survivable, lethal and distributed force. And this is not about preparing to fight World War III; it’s about effective crisis and escalation management.

Part of the way ahead would be to build reinforced bases from which US bombers could operate in the near to mid-term as Australia builds out its own desired capabilities. These bases could be used for rotations to exercise with the ADF or to reinforce Australian defence in a crisis.

These proposals are about taking the US–Australia alliance forward in an effective way to deal with the defence of Australia today, and not simply speculating about the long-term options. It’s also about demonstrating to Beijing that bullying isn’t going to lead to the compliance of the liberal democratic states to a future Chinese global order. China’s leaders need to pause and consider what Australia as an arsenal for democracy might mean to their future as well.

ASPI’s decades: Building submarines and warships

ASPI celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. This series looks at ASPI’s work since its creation in August 2001.

Australian naval shipbuilding has a long history. Calling it a chequered history only just captures the drama and the dollars of the determination to make our own ships and submarines.

More than any other area of defence procurement, shipbuilding consistently captures the nation’s attention, Hugh White, ASPI’s first executive director, observed in 2002, ‘from the troubled Government shipyards of the 1950s and 1960s through to the Collins submarine project of the 1990s. Naval construction is a challenging, and at times risky, billion-dollar business’.

After selling off its defence factories, the federal government spent the final two decades of the 20th century insisting on arm’s-length competition for all defence contracts.

Then, in 2001, the government announced a new approach. It would reduce competition and instead build long-term relationships with major defence suppliers. Shipbuilding—‘the jewel in the defence industry crown’—would be the testbed, and an ASPI report offered proposals for ‘modest but valuable’ reform:

  • Do not force an outcome on the industry as a whole. Let commercial forces decide how many shipbuilders we can support in this country.
  • Smooth out the shipbuilding workload later in the decade, so the industry does not face a boom and bust cycle.
  • Reform naval repair and maintenance, to better support the ships at sea and the industry.
  • Sell ASC [Australian Submarine Corporation] to the highest competent bidder, allowing new firms to enter the industry which might be able to bring non-defence work to the corporation.
  • Avoid buying Australian-unique systems which seldom offer operational advantages to offset the very high costs and risks they impose.

Reviewing the Collins-class submarine in 2006, Patrick Walters called it Australia’s most ambitious and controversial defence project:

No major defence procurement project in Australian history has generated such an extraordinary saga of strategic, commercial and bureaucratic rivalries, technical snags, cultural misunderstandings, political interference and genuine national achievement as the building of the Collins Class vessels.

Walters concluded that the Commonwealth’s $5 billion investment in Collins had given Australia a key strategic asset and greatly boosted the skills of our naval construction industry.

In Keeping our heads below water, Andrew Davies in 2008 advocated going from the six Collins boats to 12 future submarines:

The project risks arising from the ‘stop start’ approach to building submarine classes could be mitigated by a rolling production model of continuous building. That would require a fleet of probably twelve boats to sustain, but the unit cost of each would be brought down and industry sustainment would be much more manageable. This approach would require a sustained government funding commitment beyond the usual forward estimate period.

The desire to load the new design with high-end capabilities at the leading edge of submarine technology, Davies wrote, must be balanced against the need for a design that could be delivered close to schedule and budget.

Davies gave the 2009 defence white paper a tick for announcing 12 new submarines, but also a kick for a significant omission: it gave no cost estimate for the project. To fill that hole, Davies and Sean Costello offered their estimate—$36 billion (in 2009 dollars)—a controversial calculation, subject to much argument, that eventually became the benchmark figure.

At $3.04 billion each, the most expensive conventional submarines ever built would be large, complex and expensive—and a bespoke Australian design. Because ASC had been retained under government ownership, Davies and Costello wrote, the Commonwealth would be better placed to evaluate the designs, but ‘ASC should not be handed the build contract as a fait accompli’.

In 2010, ASPI went Naval gazing to consider the future of Australia’s shipbuilding and repair sector, drawing views from the federal and state governments and industry:

Some common themes emerged: the challenge of delivering the Defence White Paper’s planned expansion of the naval fleet, the need to manage the workflow for industry to avoid a ‘boom and bust’ pattern, and the need for Australian industry to be competitive in a global marketplace.

At the end of 2011, Andrew Davies lamented that the nation’s biggest ever engineering undertaking, Subaqueana australis, was listing. The saga of the Collins fleet made Canberra uncomfortable about ‘throwing good money after bad’ on the future submarine. The principals in charge of the project weren’t making an authoritative case to steer ahead.

Treating Collins and the future submarine as stand-alone problems, Davies said, increased the chance of a future capability gap between the two classes. Fixing the Collins’ problems and developing technologies to go into the future boats could be the same activity. Davies’ judgement was that an ‘evolved Collins’ looked the best bet.

In 2012, Davies and Mark Thomson pronounced that the promise of the 2009 defence white paper for 2030—a force of 12 new, highly capable, long-range submarines—wasn’t going to happen: ‘We’re already past the point at which a force of that size and capability can be in place even by the mid‑2030s.’

Mind the gap explored the options to fill the gap, to get serious about subs: ‘The government needs to ratchet up the priority of the project and marshal the resources needed to accomplish the task.’

After the election of the Abbott government in 2013, ASPI held a conference to discuss Australia’s submarine choice. Feedback from the 220 attendees pointed to a striking message: ‘the lack of agreement from Defence, the Navy and the Australian Government on design, capability requirements and numbers for the Future Submarine project’.

The Abbott government turned towards a version of Japan’s Soryu-class submarine (dubbed ‘Option J’), setting up a competition with designs from Germany or France.

The battle over the new boat bounced in many directions, from the billions to the battery technology. Why should Australia build its own submarines? What were the benefits of deepening the Japan defence relationship? In Japan versus Europe, would Prime Minister Tony Abbott would do a ‘captain’s pick’ for Japan. The sub was a wonderful case study of defence acquisition, Davies observed:

Because of its scale and time frame, it spans every aspect of defence decision-making from long-term strategic crystal ball gazing, including the possible impact of future technologies, through military strategy development and force structuring, all the way to robust politics of shipyard jobs.

For The Strategist, the submarine has consistently generated headlines, with arguments for big submarines, little submarines, conventional submarines, nuclear submarines, no submarines, and the protest that Australia’s ultimate choice was a preposterous submarine.

The Turnbull government’s 2016 choice of France’s DCNS (now Naval Group) as the international partner for the design of the 12 subs merely ended one stage of the saga.

The dollars being fed the boat made it ‘the very hungry future submarine’.

Submarines: your questions answered, published in November 2020, had nearly 40 significant questions to answer. The specialist world of defence procurement could provoke argument at an Aussie barbecue, Peter Jennings noted:

Why are they so expensive? Why do we need 12 of them? Why build them here? Why not nuclear propulsion? Why a French design? Why not an American, German, Japanese or Swedish design? Aren’t submarines obsolete, to be replaced by drones? Won’t technology make the oceans transparent?

Australia set out on a multi-decade undertaking to build ships and subs, but in 2018 Andrew Davies worried that we were making it up as went go along in a high-risk enterprise, with inadequate governance, and a piecemeal approach to managing risk.

Reflecting on ASPI’s two decades of worrying about the cash–kit–capability nexus, Davies lamented:

I think we’re still paying too much, both in dollar terms and in broader opportunity costs, for our defence capability. And we’re being too patient about getting it. I haven’t won many friends in defence industry with my views on local procurement versus off-the-shelf purchases, but that’s something I’m unrepentant about. What we have today is an uneasy amalgam of defence capability development and defence industry sector support, hiding behind a veneer of ‘sovereign capability’ or ‘jobs and growth’.

If Australia’s strategic circumstances looked more benign, Davies wrote, this would be only a misuse of resources, ‘but it runs the risk of also being a dreadful strategic oversight’.

Since Vietnam, Michael Shoebridge wrote in 2018, Australia had had a small defence force with a clear technological edge over potential adversaries. That had given governments confidence that Australian forces would prevail—and suffer minimal casualties.

Unfortunately, Shoebridge noted, that edge had dissipated because of military modernisation across the region. Regional militaries operating near-peer capabilities would inflict combat losses on the Australian Defence Force:

Ships, aircraft and vehicles that are lost in combat with their ADF operators are almost impossible to replace in a timely way given their complex nature. The lead time for getting a new ship is at least five years. For an F-35, it’s a matter of joining a global queue.

But even if a new platform was available, the bigger limiting factor to sustaining combat of this type is that replacing skilled military personnel takes years, and, in some cases, over a decade. That means we might be deploying a force that’s unable to sustain itself against losses long enough to prevail. That’s a fancy way of saying it would probably lose.

The changing risk equation meant the Defence Department should focus beyond the low-number, high-capability formula it had used for decades.

As well as protecting advanced kit from loss, Shoebridge said, Defence needed lots of complementary consumables that could be deployed, lost and replaced in numbers.

Australia’s chequered history of shipbuilding faces a crowded and complex strategic chessboard.

Why is Australia still investing in a balanced defence force?

When Prime Minister Scott Morrison compared Australia’s strategic situation to that in 1939, he was right in two respects. We have again put too much trust in a ‘great and powerful friend’ to secure our independence and have both underinvested in the military capabilities required for self-reliance and chosen them badly. As in 1939, the Australian Defence Force finds itself woefully unprepared for a high-intensity conflict.

It’s not that governments haven’t recognised the threat. Australia’s defence budget has increased to over 2% of GDP. But will the multibillion-dollar submarine, frigate, air combat capability and tank programs deliver the assets we need, and in time?

Emphatically, they will not.

Planning for the last war rather than the next, Australia’s Defence Department has not procured weapons that are fit for purpose and that can be acquired speedily, efficiently and cost-effectively.

The 2020 defence strategic update identifies the growing threat from China and argues a significant change of approach towards a defence of Australia strategy and away from far-flung coalition operations in the Middle East:

The Government has decided that defence planning will focus on Australia’s immediate region: ranging from the north-eastern Indian Ocean, through maritime and mainland South East Asia to Papua New Guinea and the South West Pacific …

Consideration of making wider military contributions should not be an equally-important determinant for force structure compared to ensuring we have credible capability to respond to any challenge in our immediate region.

There is, however, no evidence that a military strategy has been developed to address the evolving threat. And if there is such a strategy, there’s no evidence that it’s affecting the force structure, which, except on the margins, is basically unchanged since the 2009, 2013 and 2016 defence white papers, with very familiar slow delivery timeframes that don’t address the urgency described by the update.

While Defence produced an accomplished strategic update, its ongoing reliance on the status quo in force structure reflects a lack of forward thinking.

The concept of a balanced force has long been almost an article of faith within Defence. Paul Dibb was unable to shake this policy in his 1986 defence review. In his letter of transmittal to Defence Minister Kim Beazley, Dibb wrote:

One of the problems encountered by the Review was arriving at satisfactory estimates of the size of force elements we need to meet our particular strategic circumstances … The Review could obtain no material centrally endorsed by the higher Defence structure which explained, for example, the strategic rationale for a 12-destroyer Navy, three fighter squadrons, six Regular Army battalions and an Army Reserve target of 30,000.

It’s striking that 35 years later, with Australia’s population 60% greater and GDP nearly three times higher in real terms, the changes to this structure have been marginal. The balanced force notion leads to the replacement of like with like, with no apparent regard for changing strategic circumstances, no concept of opportunity cost and little consideration of whether advances in military technologies could provide different and more effective solutions.

John Maynard Keynes reputedly said: ‘When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?’ Similarly, Albert Palazzo argues in his recent paper for the Australian Army Research Centre, Planning to not lose a war, that Australia must dramatically change how it prepares for and thinks about war if it’s to remain a sovereign nation. The situation has changed, but Defence has not changed its attachment to a balanced force or developed a cogent military strategy.

The logic of the strategic update is that the ADF needs its own capability to pursue an anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) strategy in Australia’s northern approaches. This would require a substantial investment in a modernised ADF with a different balance among the three services and a greater emphasis on maritime attack and airstrike capabilities.

The ADF also needs a credible offensive force-projection capability to deter an adversary from attacking Australia.

Costing $90 billion, the diesel–electric Attack-class submarines are intended for force projection ‘up threat’, working closely with the US nuclear-powered submarine force within the extensive American anti-submarine warfare (ASW) surveillance infrastructure.

Their effectiveness is constrained by their slower speed and their need to snort. Much of the boats’ time will be spent in transit, severely reducing their ability to maximise force on station. The People’s Liberation Army’s rapidly developing ASW capability means that snorting will increasingly expose them to detection, and their low sustainable speed will make them vulnerable if attacked.

The Attack class would also be compromised in a defence-of-Australia role. The boats are too big, too slow and too few. Nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) would be more effective. Undertaking high-end operations in our exclusive economic zone against submarines and surface ships, SSNs could carry out opportunistic missions ‘up threat’, even if coalition forces had left and taken their infrastructure with them. A squadron of SSNs would be a very potent deterrent.

The Hunter-class frigate program, at an indefensible cost of $45 billion, is a questionable investment. Since the Battle of the Atlantic, the balance of power between the submarine and the surface warship has changed significantly in favour of the submarine.

ASW will play a significant role at a few critically important locations close to Australia. With the submarine having a tactical advantage, and major advances in anti-ship missile technology, the few big Hunter-class warships will be poorly matched to threat.  Defence priorities should address multi-layered ASW capability, including satellites, sub-sea arrays, sea mines, land-based aircraft and submarines.

To be fair, the submarine and frigate programs were conceived well before the strategic update.

But there’s no excuse for the massive (approximately $42 billion) investment in armoured fighting vehicles for the army. And, unless Defence expects an unlikely invasion of the Australian continent, the acquisition of 75 Abrams tanks defies a rationale. They are too heavy for most bridges in northern Australia, let alone in the Indo-Pacific. It’s hard to comprehend how main battle tanks could be deployed in almost any regional theatre, even if there were a strategic case for doing so.

Today, the air force should arguably play the leading role in the defence of Australia. Its P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, along with the navy’s Seahawk helicopters, are among the most important defence assets.

The Australian-designed ‘loyal wingman’ drone appears to have potential, but the F-35 joint strike fighter is inadequate in this region in terms of its range and payload. It can neither achieve dominance as an air-superiority fighter nor perform adequately in terms of long-range strike. The new American B-21 bomber would provide a more credible deterrent in terms of long-range force projection and offer a powerful strike capability within Australia’s EEZ, just as the F-111 did.

In her speech to ASPI in July 2020, the then defence minister, Linda Reynolds, said: ‘The future is now.’ Across the Indo-Pacific, countries were modernising their militaries and increasing their preparedness for conflict. Regional nations now had next-generation submarines, combat aircraft and highly effective land forces. New weapons and technologies, including hypersonic glide and long-range missiles, autonomous systems, space capabilities, artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities, had increased range, speed, precision and lethality.

The ADF must adapt to these rapidly changing circumstances and be prepared for high-tech conflict. The strategic update is a welcome refocusing of the ADF on our immediate region, but it lacks a military strategy and doesn’t shift the focus of our force structure away from coalition operations to the defence of Australia.

So far, the Defence organisation hasn’t shown the urgency or capacity to address these issues.

The government should urgently commission a comprehensive review of the ADF’s force structure. The review team should include experienced military personnel, but the process should not be led by the Defence Department.

Preparing for conflict: Veterans need apply

Australia is currently undertaking the greatest peacetime recapitalisation of its defence force in the nation’s history, and if the prime minister, defence minister and Home Affairs secretary are to be believed it couldn’t come a moment too soon. The surging program of investment includes a dizzying array of highly complex, short- and long-term projects that will require significant specialised support to deliver. That requires hard-to-come-by technical, tactical and management skills for the wide array of tasks facing the organisation, from cutting steel to cutting code.

As ASPI’s Marcus Hellyer points out, Defence already relies on a pool of contractors and outsourced service providers, at a price tag that runs into the billions. Many fill roles that aren’t viable or economical for service personnel (such as mowing lawns and manning gates). But many provide skills that Defence can’t attract, can’t retain or simply doesn’t need on a long-term basis. And while contractors may be expensive, so are service personnel. The former, however, are a highly flexible resource readily moving between projects and taking with them knowledge that is not lost in the posting cycle. On top of this, a very large percentage of the contractor workforce appears to be veterans.

Defence members hang up their uniforms for many reasons. Some leave dissatisfied with the service and never want to look back. But many more leave for reasons including family, financial and medical factors, while remaining deeply committed to the defence of the nation. Those veterans bring an intimate understanding of the organisation, military capability and, in many instances, specialised technical and managerial experience. Those are valuable skills that the ADF has spent years and a large amount of money developing (although these individuals have almost invariably gained additional skills through further study, often in their own time).

It begs the question of how many veterans currently work for Defence. The probable answer is that the department itself doesn’t know. Unlike the United States, where the government actively prefers to employ veterans, it seems that Defence has simply never asked the question in a formal or systematic way when hiring or contracting.

But perhaps the most significant reason for the lack of data is that the department itself almost never directly employs veterans (with the exception of members of the Defence public service workforce who are themselves veterans). Current procurement mechanisms create barriers to individuals (and many small enterprises) to supplying services directly to the government. Instead, structures like panels of major service providers are used, which are typically restricted to a small number of very large firms who often subcontract work to the individual or small business best placed to deliver the service. For some veterans that process may be advantageous. Large multinational firms may offer security, professional development and tools to help the individual deliver outcomes.

Certainly, when the government is buying a product or service, such as building an armoured vehicle (often referred to as ‘below the line’), it makes financial sense to buy from the manufacturer themselves. But often the department just needs the skills of a particular individual or small firm to deliver ‘above the line’.

Currently when the government wants to buy knowledge and experience, often from people that it has spent years training, it must do so via third parties who provide limited ‘value add’ but who charge additional and sometimes significant costs. That not only creates barriers for veterans and veteran-run businesses but increases the cost to Defence of accessing the skills it needs. Fortunately, the government already has a model which can be adapted to make it easier and cheaper to access veteran’s skills.

Using the highly successful Indigenous Procurement Policy (IPP) as a model, the government could establish a veterans procurement policy, or VPP, which could create significant cost savings, opportunities for veterans and more agile enterprise outcomes.

The IPP, in place since 2015, has generated more than $3.5 billion, with over 24,470 contracts awarded to more than 2,140 Indigenous business. Exemption 16 of the Commonwealth Procurement Rules allows portfolios to procure directly from Indigenous small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The mandatory set-aside requires that Indigenous businesses be given an opportunity to demonstrate value for money before there is a general approach to market. That proven framework could readily be adapted to create a VPP that allows Defence and all other Commonwealth agencies to directly access the expertise they need.

A VPP would also reduce subcontracting (and often even sub-subcontracting) premiums by enabling the government to access the individuals and businesses they want directly, without involving a third party. And it would even reduce risk (commonly invoked as an argument against contracting directly with SMEs and for the need for major service providers and labour-hire companies), via proven structures, polices and process.

A VPP would demand a minimum 51% veteran ownership and require a percentage of profits be returned to veteran support initiatives. That in turn could help reduce the pressure on the Department of Veterans’ Affairs  by providing additional funds to support those in need through the profits made by veterans in the private sector.

But a VPP wouldn’t only benefit veterans. Defence has more than 7,000 individuals providing ‘above the line’ services, at an annual cost in excess of $1 billion. The majority of those people are contracted (or subcontracted) through a major service provider. And, as one of the biggest departments, Defence’s procurement panels are utilised by numerous other government departments. Cutting out the ‘middle-man’ could put more veterans into relevant roles while saving the government tens to hundreds of millions of dollars every year.

The Prime Minister’s Veteran’s Employment Program states that ‘veterans represent a unique, diverse and high-performing source of talent’. That’s very true. Perhaps the government, starting with Defence, might take advantage of that.

ASPI’s decades: The contest of contestability

ASPI celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. This series looks at ASPI’s work since its creation in August 2001.

‘Contestability’ is a very Canberra word. It’s about the need to promote arguments. So the best arguments win and the best decisions get made.

What could be more Canberra than that?

From the Department of Defence all the way to the Finance Department (a helluva distance, although only a few kilometres apart), everyone praises the principle of contestability. It’s just the doing of the thing.

The Howard government wanted more arguments about defence—and that was at the heart of the submission that went to cabinet in April 2000 on the creation of ASPI:

The principles of contestability have been central to our Government’s philosophy and practice of public administration, but these principles have not yet been effectively implemented in relation to defence and strategic policy, despite the vital national interests and significant sums of money that are at stake … ASPI will be charged with providing an alternative source of expertise on such issues.

As a deputy secretary in Defence and then ASPI’s first director, Hugh White said the government’s act of creation reflected a commitment to ‘policy contestability’ and also ministers’ experiences of dealing with Defence:

For reasons that would be hard to pin down, and although relations between ministers, individual officers, and officials were professional, respectful, and even at times warm, it might be said that the Howard Government never established an easy relationship with the defence organisation. A few specific issues, especially on questions of defence material [sic] and acquisition, and most particularly the troubles of the Collins-class submarine, led ministers to be impatient and even suspicious of defence advice, and thus increasingly eager to find alternative ideas and arguments to test that advice against.

After some argument about how this argumentative beast should be structured, ASPI was born with contestability as a core part of its DNA.

In that spirit, ASPI’s Andrew Davies in 2010 gave the thumbs-down to Defence because of the lack of contestability inside the department. Defence’s job was to produce military capabilities for the government to use, to match military means with strategic ends. Yet the results more often reflected the preferred structures of the three services.

Alternative or transformational options had no champions, Davies wrote, and the professional military judgement prevailed: ‘The previous balance between the military world view on one hand and the analysts who could provide different perspectives, and who do not share the service ethos brought to the table by their military counterparts, has been lost.’

Defence needed to revive something like the old Force Development and Analysis Division (FDA), which was wound down in the 1990s as part of the Defence reform program. Davies had worked for FDA and its descendants and had ‘the scars to prove it’, because inside Defence the acronym had come to mean Forces of Darkness and Acrimony.

The 2015 First principles review made 46 references to contestability in phrases such as ‘arms length contestability’, ‘internal contestability’, ‘strategic, financial and technical contestability’, ‘a robust and disciplined contestability function’, and the need to ‘introduce greater transparency, contestability and professionalism’. The review stated:

A number of stakeholders raised concerns regarding the quality of policy advice in Defence. Several former Ministers stated that policy advice was diffuse, inconsistent and fragmented with one former Minister stating that his lack of confidence in Defence’s policy advice led to engagement of third parties to ‘second guess’ it. It is crucial that the Secretary and the Chief of Defence Force, as the primary policy advisers to Government on Defence issues, are provided with high quality strategic policy advice from within Defence …

Defence also requires a mechanism for providing internal contestability, at arm’s-length from owners and sponsors, up to the point of decision. This will ensure strategy, plans and resource allocations are tightly aligned and appropriately prioritised. It will also foster increased transparency and credibility with central agencies.

One of the outcomes of the review was the creation of a Contestability Division providing independent assessment and advice to the vice chief of the Australian Defence Force. The Contestability Division was described as an effort to rebuild the trust of ministers and central agencies (primarily the prime minister’s and finance departments) in Defence’s ability to deliver budget outcomes.

The first head of the Contestability Division, Michael Shoebridge, would follow Davies as director of ASPI’s defence, strategy and national security program.

Writing for The Strategist in 2016, Gary Hogan, a former director-general of scientific and technical analysis at the Defence Intelligence Organisation, said getting contestability in intelligence judgements was ‘easier said than done’:

The challenge of contestability is compounded by the very nature of the intelligence community workforce. While aspiring analysts may enter the recruitment funnel from diverse backgrounds, offering a wide range of knowledge and experiences, the excruciatingly involved security vetting process sees many fall by the wayside, with a disturbingly like-minded cohort dripping from the tube’s end. Under such circumstances, groupthink becomes a very real issue.

Hogan said analysts in think tanks outside the government bubble would assume added significance as Pentagon-style ‘murder boards’ that asked the toughest of questions: ‘Organisations like the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and the Lowy Institute could perform such a function for most strategic analysis, complemented by academics and commentators with unique expertise in arcane areas of growing importance to Australia.’

As Davies noted, such contestability—civilians testing what the services desired—could turn to acrimony and bickering. A process for dispassionate debate could often be decidedly passionate.

Standing outside Defence, ASPI tries for precision without the passion in its contestation, deeply interested in the many issues that confront Defence as a huge and complex department.

Where’s the combined joint headquarters in northern Australia?

Have you ever heard of Combined Joint Headquarters (CJHQ) Top End? Before you go racing to Google, it doesn’t exist! Yet Australia and its partners need such an arrangement. It’s time to leverage our strategic geography and make a bold commitment to maritime security and multilateral military cooperation by establishing just this kind of headquarters. At the very least, a CJHQ in northern Australia could help to coordinate humanitarian assistance and disaster responses in a region facing more frequent and intense weather events.

In the 2020 defence strategic update, the government committed to invest ‘approximately $270 billion over the coming decade in new and upgraded Defence capabilities’ in order to ‘project military power and deter actions against us’. Unfortunately, there’s little mention of how the Australian Defence Force will command and control all these new capabilities.

The strategic update also says that ‘defence planning will focus on our immediate region: ranging from the north-eastern Indian Ocean, through maritime and mainland South East Asia to Papua New Guinea and the South-West Pacific’.

As one would expect, there’s scant detail in the update on the command-and-control structures to coordinate and synchronise these defence planning activities with our non–Five Eyes partners. Hard-won experience reveals that this sort of cooperation doesn’t just occur and is a perishable commodity requiring continuous long-term commitments.

Technology permits command and control to be done remotely, so some will argue there’s no need to create a new headquarters in the Top End—be it the Northern Territory or northern Queensland. This perspective does have a ring of truth, but strategic geography and proximity still matter, and so does people-to-people cooperation.

Establishing a combined headquarters with joint capabilities across the armed services would afford Australia an all-new opportunity to help meet one of the strategic update’s primary aims: shaping our strategic environment by being an ‘assertive advocate for stability, security and sovereignty in our immediate region’.

Placing a coalition headquarters in the north would be a firm step towards ‘strengthening international engagement, particularly with the United States, Japan, India, ASEAN and other allies and partners in our region’.

A northern CJHQ would lend itself to the disaster-response operations that Australia and its partners have routinely found themselves conducting in the past eight years: Super Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in November 2013; the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 in March 2014; the Nepal earthquake in April 2015; and the Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia in September 2018. These operations were civil–military, involving whole-of-government efforts by the nations engaged. Still, the combined defence components provided the planning and command-and-control expertise that led to their success.

A CJHQ in the north could become the focal point, not just for Australia, but for our coalition partners, for combined and joint operations that would support humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions, as well as the planning and execution of operations in support of police and coastguard forces to counter human and drug trafficking.

It would allow Australia to host this combined effort with India, Indonesia, Japan and other partners in an area of interest common to all. In doing so, those involved would develop and practise the kind of planning and communications protocols that support humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations.

A CJHQ would also relieve some of the burden on the ADF’s Joint Operations Command, whose primary focus is defence and combat operations.

There can be no doubt that establishing this kind of arrangement will be a monumental undertaking involving several countries, from our near neighbour Indonesia to our ANZUS and Quad partners.

One of the first challenges, though, will be far closer to home.

Getting agreement on this from Defence will be no easy task. The headquarters once responsible for all the planning and conduct of operations in northern Australia during peacetime and wartime, Northern Command, has been in a steady state of decline for years. Most of its functions now sit with Joint Operations Command in Bungendore, near Canberra. So, a commitment to returning at least some command-and-control arrangements to Australia’s north will involve revisiting some planning assumptions.

Interestingly, while the ADF’s command and primary headquarters lie beneath 26° south, the United States’ Indo-Pacific Command maps tend to show only the north of Australia.

Regardless of type and composition, all headquarters are challenged with anticipating and determining viable command-and-control structures that accomplish specific operations while retaining the agility to plan and execute other ongoing or new missions.

A CJHQ in the north would provide Australia and its partners with a responsive, agile and inclusive headquarters that answers an operational need and sends a powerful signal to potential adversaries and criminal groups operating in one of the most contested areas in the world.

As most military leaders, regardless of nationality, know, if you get the command-and-control right, the rest of the mission is straightforward. A combined joint headquarters in the Top End of Australia will not only get us and our allies on the right foot, but will place us on our front foot too.

Pathways to prosecution for Australian soldiers’ crimes in Afghanistan

Yesterday it was confirmed in the Brereton report that there’s ‘credible information’ to substantiate the unlawful killing of 39 people by Australian special forces personnel in Afghanistan. These shocking allegations led Prime Minister Scott Morrison to announce last week that a special investigator’s office will be established to assist the Australian Federal Police to investigate these alleged crimes. The information contained in the Brereton report will now serve as a guide for the special investigator’s office, which will focus on gathering evidence that will be admissible in criminal prosecutions.

If a decision is made to implement the recommendations of the Brereton report and prosecute members of the Australian Defence Force, where can they be tried and under what law?

There are two main options—one involving criminal trial in the civilian court system, and the other court martial via Australia’s military justice system. The Brereton report recommends that any criminal investigation and prosecution of alleged war crimes follow the civilian route, with the involvement of the AFP and the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions. Given the availability of the military justice system, why has the report recommended this course of action?

The civilian route invokes the CDPP’s jurisdiction to prosecute serious international crimes—including war crimes—under the Commonwealth Criminal Code. The commencement of such proceedings requires the federal attorney-general’s written consent. War crimes are acts of atrocity committed during an armed conflict and are considered violations of the laws of war. Such acts include murder (the killing of persons not taking part in hostilities), torture, cruel treatment and mutilation. Those alleged to have been killed by special forces include prisoners and civilians. In addition to the unlawful killings are two allegations of cruel treatment that could amount to war crimes. The report also raises the possibility of commanders being criminally liable for failing to exercise proper control over their subordinates under the doctrine of command responsibility.

Any trials would likely take place in a state or territory supreme court before a judge and a jury. If ADF members are charged with such offences, it would be the first time that Australian soldiers have been prosecuted for war crimes in a civilian court.

The alternative option for dealing with the allegations is via the military justice system. Under the Defence Force Discipline Act, the independent office of the Director of Military Prosecutions has jurisdiction over ADF members for disciplinary offences, such as negligence in performance of a duty. ADF chief Angus Campbell has indicated that individuals accused of such disciplinary offences will be dealt with through military justice processes.

The DMP also has jurisdiction to prosecute ‘ordinary’ crimes under against Australian law no matter where they were committed. Special forces soldiers alleged to have unlawfully killed prisoners or civilians could, for example, be charged and tried with the crime of murder or manslaughter. And, like the CDPP, the DMP has jurisdiction to prosecute ADF personnel for war crimes. A criminal trial in the military system is via court martial.

Courts martial are heard before a president and panel of ADF members and are generally held in public unless the court is closed for reasons of security or defence. They can impose a range of punishments, including imprisonment for life or dismissal from the defence force.

Trial by court martial has the advantage of alleviating concerns that a civilian court won’t understand battlefield decisions or military culture. However, it may be viewed as failing to account for the very real public concern about special forces’ behaviour and a desire for a civilian court trial that is fully independent of the ADF.

The Brereton report’s recommendation that allegations of war crimes be tried in the civilian justice system reflects several different legal and policy issues. A memorandum of understanding between the CDPP and the DMP acknowledges that in the case of alleged war crimes, the public interest may be ‘best served’ by prosecution in a civilian court. The report’s recommendation also takes into account the fact that some individuals who could be prosecuted are no longer serving ADF members and therefore don’t fall under military jurisdiction. There’s also the perception that civilian investigations and prosecutions for war crimes would be more likely to prevent the International Criminal Court from asserting its jurisdiction in this matter.

The ICC is currently pursuing an investigation into international crimes committed in Afghanistan. While the ICC prosecutor’s investigations into this situation have focused on allegations against Afghan and US forces, it will likely keep an eye on the Brereton report and Australia’s response. The ICC is a ‘court of last resort’, which means that it will only investigate or prosecute if a state with jurisdiction is unwilling or unable to do so. Australia’s robust civilian and military justice systems mean that it is more than capable of investigating and prosecuting war crimes.

The Brereton report and the establishment of a special investigator’s office indicate that Australia is already taking these allegations seriously and that it is ready and willing to prosecute.

Defence must work with all levels of government to improve northern Australia’s bases

The Australian Defence Force and all three levels of government should work together to establish and maintain ‘mounting’ bases in Australia’s north from which overseas operations could be launched.

The ADF has home bases, mounting bases and bare bases, which serve specific purposes. Home bases are used for force generation and maintaining preparedness. Bare bases are there to be activated when needed, and mounting bases are established for specific operations and contingencies.

Mounting base infrastructure required for operations to secure Australia and its interests could be enhanced throughout northern Australia by closer linkages to planners and decision-makers within the three levels of government.

While it seems that there have been some attempts by Defence to consider mounting base requirements, they appear to be based on existing infrastructure, with no plan to integrate ADF requirements into future developments.

By comparison, in each state and local government area, significant effort has gone into the infrastructure developments required to support and develop communities and regions.

Defence improves the home bases of the army, navy and air force, generally without much consultation with local or state and territory authorities. This is to be expected given the permanency and purpose of home bases in training forces.

Mounting bases are different. Real attention is generally only paid to them when their potential operational use is considered. As highlighted in a previous post, mounting bases are employed, given operational security considerations, for their proximity to potential operations, accessibility by road, rail, sea and air, and the suitability of their infrastructure and logistics for the training, deployment and sustainment of the deployed force. Given Australia’s geographic location, these bases are normally situated in the country’s north.

The commander of a joint force with an assigned mission has a different perspective on the infrastructure at a mounting base than the base commander. The base commander seeks infrastructure improvements to support the training function and day to day barracks living, and is focused on preparing for possible future missions. The force commander has eyes on the mission at hand.

There are two good reasons to pay attention to this now—the rising instability in our region and the increasing realisation of the benefits of developing northern Australia.

The recently released defence strategic update and force structure plan address the heightened imperative to meet emerging national security threats. For Defence planners, these documents point to the contingencies that could require mounting bases for ADF operations. If there was ever a time to get this right, it’s now.

There is also an increasing focus on the economic benefits of investing in northern Australia, especially since the 2015 Northern Australia audit, and around $12 billion has been allocated to the national Defence estate and infrastructure program over the next four years.

The Commonwealth guidelines are set out in Our north, our future: White paper on developing northern Australia and managed by the Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund and the Office of Northern Australia. The Queensland government has the North Queensland Regional Plan and the North Queensland regional office that has a dedicated defence hub. The Northern Territory and Western Australia have similar plans.

Local governments naturally pursue infrastructure that enhances economic development and liveability of their areas.

Informed decisions made at local and state government level could strongly support Australia’s national security. Without knowledge of Defence’s needs, however, uninformed state and local government decisions could, at best, fail to optimise the conduct of ADF mobilisation and sustainment missions. At worst, not collaborating effectively now could directly impact on future deployed operations.

Improved knowledge, linkages and coordination among the three levels of government about mounting base operational requirements and infrastructure, would make best use of the taxpayers’ dollar in northern Australia, while enhancing national security and improving prosperity.

All three levels of government invest in infrastructure. Where their interests meet, the costs could be shared to realise a national security effect, provide economic prosperity and jobs, and enhance the liveability of communities. In some cases, making choices that don’t involve additional costs could make the difference in whether infrastructure that better supports ADF mobilisation operations is built or not.

A simple example of effective coordination could be a planned port redevelopment. With a more informed understanding of Defence’s mobilisation requirements, a berth might need to be extended only slightly to maximise Defence’s use, for little cost.

Similarly, knowing the weight load and surface material requirements for armoured vehicle movements in a port, might be easily and cheaply addressed at the development stage rather than at some later date in order to meet an urgent contingency.

Simple inputs by Defence could make a significant difference to ADF mobilisation capability with no material effect on the operations of a port and at minimal cost.

Places in northern Australia where mounting bases for operations offshore are likely to be established are constantly being developed by state and local governments. A keener interest by Defence in this development work would likely find that a few simple contributions to the local development plans could yield significant benefits.

Providing advice to state and local government on mobilisation support adjustments would improve ADF capability now and in the future. Bearing in mind the characteristics required of a mounting base, some engagement and attention paid now, could save time and money when we really need both.

Strategic update shows shift in Australia’s defence outlook in uncertain times

In this interview, ASPI’s executive director Peter Jennings talks to The Strategist’s Brendan Nicholson about Australia’s 2020 defence strategic update and new force structure plan.

They discuss the extent to which the nation’s strategic situation has deteriorated in the four years since the 2016 defence white paper, the acceptance that Australia must abandon its long-held expectation that it will have 10 years to prepare for a major conflict, and the decision to provide the Australian Defence Force with a much more potent strike capability to deter an attacker.

The update warns that Australia must be ready to deal with ‘grey zone’ aggression that falls short of actual warfare.

Preparation and improved intelligence-gathering capabilities will be crucial to providing early warning of threats. The Australian-designed Jindalee over-the-horizon radar network will be extended to look out over the Pacific.

The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the vulnerability of supply chains and there’s a big lesson there for Defence. Crucial to Australia’s ability to defend itself will be ensuring a secure supply of locally produced munitions to avoid relying on equipment coming from abroad. The same applies to vital fuel supplies.

The update and the force structure plan map out a path that will give Australia a much greater ability to defend itself in uncertain times.