Keeping Chinese embassies out: Taiwanese president’s tour of the Pacific
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s visit last week to three independent Pacific island states was more important than it looked. The visited countries have diplomatic relations with Taipei instead of Beijing, and it’s deeply in the interest of Taiwan and its friends to keep it that way, in part by such efforts as presidential visits.
Establishment of Chinese embassies in the three countries—The Marshall Islands, Palau and Tuvalu—would follow any diplomatic switch. Those embassies would become official centres of power in counties that, being small, are highly vulnerable to influence. Also, Taiwan’s little allies amplify Taiwan’s voice in international forums from which China keeps it excluded.
One of the most important levers in Taiwan’s diplomatic toolkit is the presidential visit. Trips to the United States get most attention, and Lai did visit Hawaii and Guam, but the most valuable tool is visits to the few countries that recognise Taiwan diplomatically. These countries experience constant pressure from China to switch recognition. China can offer these countries tens of millions of dollars in foreign aid; Taiwan’s financial and political constraints limit it from making the same offers.
The three Pacific Island countries stick with Taiwan due to shared political and cultural values. Many states stuck with recognition of the government in Taiwan (formally, the Republic of China) out of opposition to the communist political system of the People’s Republic of China. In the Pacific, these ties are even stronger due to their shared Austronesian descent with Taiwanese indigenous people. These intangible values are often unseen in day-to-day governance. Taiwan needs to actively promote those values through people-to-people ties up to and especially at the presidential level.
Maintaining relations with Taiwan is also important for good governance and freedom in the Pacific island countries that recognise it. Recognising Taiwan prevents an official Chinese presence from moving in. While China can and does act through unofficial envoys, such as business leaders and gangsters, their ability to influence cannot be compared with the fortresses of official influence that China has erected across the Pacific. Upon establishing a diplomatic presence, China floods a host country with diplomats and other officials to further its interests.
Embassies are sources of not only licit but also illegal and malign Chinese influence. In a letter to domestic political leaders, a former president of the Federated States of Micronesia, David Panuelo, highlighted that China’s coercive political activity ran through the embassy. Examples included harassing calls from the ambassador, bribing of legislators and other broad efforts to undermine political institutions.
Moreover, the malign activity of Chinese embassies spreads beyond their host countries. Panuelo notes being followed by men stationed in the China’s embassy in Fiji while he was in Suva. In another instance, the Chinese embassy in Fiji published a video essay to discredit a report on China’s policing and organised crime activity in the country.
Beyond blocking the spread of China’s malign influence, Taiwan’s Pacific allies also give it a voice on the international stage, highlighting its achievements and advocating its presence in international organisations. In remarks at the 2024 UN General Assembly, Palau and the Marshall Islands both voiced support for Taiwan’s participation in the UN. At the COP28 climate talks last year, Palau and Paraguay, which also recognises Taiwan, spruiked Taiwan’s climate accomplishments and inclusion. Countries that recognise Taiwan also vocally support its accession to the World Health Organization, Interpol and other international institutions. This advocacy is particularly important in the Pacific Islands Forum where China has sought to revoke Taiwan’s dialogue partner status—Palau will host the forum leaders meeting in 2026.