Whither the Bush doctrine?

ASPI today released a new Special Report publication titled ‘Whither the Bush doctrine?’ by Dr Rod Lyon.

With Congressional criticism of the war in Iraq mounting, and the Bush presidency now deep into its fourth quarter, speculation is increasing about the future trajectory of US strategic policy. Bush has been responsible for a major reformation in that policy post-September 11, articulating a doctrine that joined moral purpose to the direct use of military force.  The doctrine has been controversial and polarizing, both within the US and beyond.  Iraq has been seen as a key performance test of the doctrine’s effectiveness.  So what are the prospects for a major reorientation of US strategic policy, either post-2008 or more immediately?

Dr Lyon argues that the prospects for major reorientation are considerably lower than many might imagine.  For one thing, Bush’s presidency is far from the anomaly some claim it to be.  His doctrine sits comfortably within the broad ‘schools’ of US foreign policy, and Bush has continued, rather than transformed, the principal traits of US strategic behaviour.

‘We should expect the next president to be a maximalist, entirely ready to act unilaterally and preemptively during crises, and better at thinking about grand strategic objectives in sweeping value terms rather than in narrow tactical terms…That president could look even more like George W. Bush on the basis of the structure of threats in the current security environment: namely, weak-actor terrorist threats are still likely to pose the most immediate threat to the United States, post-2008,’says Dr Lyon.  

With realists already displacing neo-conservatives at the helm, US strategists in coming years will be attempting to increase their effectiveness against 21st-century threats.  A retreat to the static, reactive doctrines of the Cold War is unlikely. In most respects, the next US president will look much like the one we have now, Dr Lyon concludes.