The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2005-06

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released its report The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2005-06.

This document has been written to give interested readers greater access to the complex workings of the Defence Budget and to promote informed debate on Defence budget issues. 

In releasing the report, Dr Thomson said: 

Next financial year Defence will spend around $17.5 billion of taxpayer’s money. This is an increase of $880 million compared with the funding for this year, and represents just on 1.9% of GDP.

In the budget, Defence was given $1.2 billion in new initiatives to deliver over four years. This included $420 million for our expanded and continuing role in Iraq, $192 million for new security initiatives and $300 million extra for capital investment. 

But the budget also included some belt tightening for Defence. They have to achieve around $440 million in reduced overheads and other efficiencies over the next four years. This should be achievable. 

One worrying issue revealed by the budget was that full-time military personnel numbers have fallen for the second year in a row – at a time when the ADF is trying to grow. This is despite $400 million of money having been spent over the past four years to improve recruitment, retention and conditions of service.

As far as the Government’s decade-long $50 billion Defence Capability Plan of investment in new military equipment goes, there was mixed news. 

On the positive side, the reforms to Defence’s acquisition agency – the Defence Materiel Organisation – appear to be gaining traction. Not only are they on track to exceed their goals for this year, but $300 million of previously deferred spending has been reinstated into next year’s budget. This is an encouraging sign.

However, at the same time, the approval of new projects by the Government has fallen significantly behind schedule. The main reason for this appears to be the new and more-rigorous project approval process that has been put in place. In the long run this should lead to better project outcomes. However, the fact remains that unless projects are approved on schedule they are unlikely to be delivered on schedule.

Invisible enemies: Infectious disease and national security in Australia

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 16/2005 

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication, examining the threat of emerging pandemics and Australia’s need to reassess its preparedness for a major outbreak of infectious disease. 

Authored by Professorial Fellow in Medical Geography and Director of the Health Studies Program at Macquarie University, Peter Curson, the Insight argues that Australia can no longer take refuge in the barriers of time and distance as an effective defence against world wide pandemics. 

“Over the last 30 years, approximately 40 newly emerged infections have been identified in the world, including AIDS, Legionnaires Disease, Lyme Disease, Ebola, Mad Cow Disease, SARS and Bird Flu.”

“The harsh reality is that when faced with a microbial enemy that proliferates rapidly, mutates frequently, spreads internationally, and which cannot be directly linked to a particular aggressor, Australia’s reliance on distance and national borders no longer constitute a satisfactory defence.”

Professor Curson advises that: “If left unchecked, epidemics of infectious disease can substantially undermine public confidence, jeopardise law and order, severely threaten a state’s social, economic and political viability and become a major agent of social and political change.”

“The spread of infectious disease endangers Australia’s national security on the proposition that the health of Australia’s population is a critical resource vital to the stability of the nation, and such disease threatens not only the livelihood and way of life of individuals, but also targets the stability and viability of the state.” 

The paper highlights the challenges for Australia as infectious diseases stake a claim on the national security agenda.

Living with Giants: Finding Australia’s place in a more complex world

Launch OF AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE’S (ASPI’S) STRATEGY REPORT ON THE FUTURE OF AUSTRALIAN FOREIGN POLICY 

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released its latest report examining the future of Australian foreign policy and the implications for our foreign policy makers.

The report is by Dr Coral Bell, currently a Visiting Fellow in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, and titled “Living with Giants: Finding Australia’s place in a more complex world”. 

The report looks at the prospective context of Australian foreign policy making over the next 20 years, with a particular attention to the impact of demographic change and population growth.

“Dr Bell makes a case that Australia’s regional and global commitments may be not only compatible but complementary. Her two central concepts, the emergence of a regional security community and the global concert of powers, are seen as future diplomatic patterns, both likely to emerge from the pressures of change during the next few decades.” ASPI Director, Peter Abigail says.

The prospect of a ‘global concert of powers’ may seem more remote in the present unipolar world of the US paramountcy, but the paper argues that the unstoppable and accelerating process of the redistribution of power has brought the end of that world much closer.

“In other words, the international context within which Canberra must make its policies is transforming itself into a society of giants.” Dr Bell states.

Of the nineteen polities projected to have populations over 100 million in 2020, Dr Bell says that ten of them are in Australia’s region of direct interest and primary strategic concern. 

The paper looks at likely diplomatic friction points and makes several recommendations to aid Canberra policy makers.

The Strategy Behind Gallipoli

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 15/2005 

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication, which examines the strategic origins of the Gallipoli operation under the direction of the First Lord of the British Admiralty, Winston Churchill. 

Authored by Head of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at ADFA in Canberra, Professor Robin Prior, and titled ‘The Strategy behind Gallipoli: Strategic decision-making in the Dardanelles and Gallipoli‘, the paper is the first in an occasional series of Strategic Insights re-examining key strategic policy decision-making in the past. 

“Although Churchill’s schemes were many and various they had one factor in common: they sought not just to defeat the German fleet but to use British naval power to shorten the duration of the war on land.”

“In the willingness of the British War Council and many of its advisors to believe that sea power could achieve this end, it lead to the grave underestimation by all concerned on the determination with which the enemy (Turkey) would defend its homeland.” Robin states.

Prior says that after the ill-fated naval attack in the Dardanelles that lasted from 19 February to 18 March, Prior notes that “Not for the first time during the First World War a strategic concept had come unstuck because the tactics required for its successful implementation were beyond the abilities of the force employed.”

In other words hopes of victory lay in the conviction that Turkish morale would crumble in the face of British sea power. When it did not the game was up.

The Insight assesses the strategic thinking behind the First World War Gallipoli operation that led a powerful British and Commonwealth army to defeat. 

Professor Prior also argues that an allied victory in Turkey would, in fact, have had little impact on the broad course of the war.

LAUNCH OF AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE’S (ASPI’S) STRATEGY REPORT ON AUSTRALIAN MARITIME SECUIRTY

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has today released its report, Future unknown: The terrorist threat to Australian maritime security.

The threat of maritime terrorism has led to fundamental changes in the international maritime security environment. There have been major developments in the regulation of international shipping, particularly through the introduction of the International Ship and Port Facility Security code. 

A terrorist attack on Australia’s maritime interests is a credible scenario. We have high dependence on shipping and seaborne trade, and are adjacent to a region where terrorist groups have maritime capabilities. Australia still faces major institutional and operational challenges in reducing the risks of maritime terrorism. 

This report identifies where gaps exist in current arrangements. It includes recommendations to improve coordination between national and state agencies and to develop the national capacity to manage maritime security in the longer term. Other problem areas include the management of high-consequence dangerous goods, the management of the supply chain, and possible risks associated with the employment of large numbers of foreign seafarers on the Australian coast. 

Although the Federal Government has dramatically increased spending on counter-terrorism measures, so far few, if any additional resources have been provided for the prevention and response elements of maritime security in ports or close to shore. 

Several recommendations are made to redress this situation, including the establishment of a Maritime and Port Security Program, the strengthening of state water police, the establishment of state port police, and a specific role for the Australian Defence Force in ship and port security. 

The report was written by Dr Anthony Bergin and Dr Sam Bateman with Aldo Borgu, ASPI Operations and Capability Program Director contributing.

How is RAMSI faring? Progress, challenges, and lessons learned

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 14/2005

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has today released a Strategic Insight publication on the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI).

Authored by ASPI’s Strategy and International Program Director, Elsina Wainwright, the Insight analyses RAMSI’s progress, the challenges that lie ahead, and what lessons might be learned for state-building operations elsewhere.

In the more than twenty months since RAMSI deployed, the operation has had a number of important successes, including the restoration of a sense of security and the stabilisation of the Solomon Islands budget. Significant headway has been made in cleaning up the Royal Solomon Islands Police, and the life sentences for warlord Harold Keke and his associates are important milestones in the consolidation of the rule of law. 

But for all the progress, there have also been setbacks. Last year’s sniper murder of Australian Protective Service Officer Adam Dunning demonstrates all too starkly that some security issues persist. 

While RAMSI continues to enjoy great community support in Solomon Islands, the operation still has much work ahead of it. Addressing corruption, rebuilding institutions, and reviving the Solomon Islands economy are all difficult tasks, which will take a considerable number of years to complete. 

And many challenges lie ahead, including the implications of targeting some of the ‘big fish’ for corruption, the risk that Solomon Islands Parliament’s support for RAMSI might evaporate, and the need to manage ongoing ethnic tensions.

Iraq security strategy: a complex challenge

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 13/2005

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication, which examines the strategic objectives in the rebuilding of Iraqi security forces and security institutions.

Authored by Peter Khalil, the ASPI Strategic Insight identifies future security challenges that must be overcome to ensure the implementation of a successful security strategy in the months ahead.

“To be successful, the Coalition’s Iraq strategy must make progress on the political transition, security and economic reconstruction fronts.” Khalil says.

“A critical part of is strategy is the training of the Iraqi security forces and the capacity building of the security institutions that support them.”

Khalil states that: “During the next twelve months, Iraq’s greatest challenge and the key to its future as an independent, capable state with effective governing structures will be to create an atmosphere of stability and security in the country.”

The ASPI Strategic Insight assesses:

” The effectiveness of Iraqi security arrangements from May 2003 to January 2005
” The dissolution of the old Iraqi army and the rebuilding of the new Iraqi Armed Forces (IAF)
” Australia’s role in the training of the new Iraqi Army
” Changing Iraqi security arrangements throughout 2005 and future security challenges.

Peter Khalil, an Australian, worked as Director for National Security Policy with the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad from August 2003 til May 2004. He has also spent time working at both DFAT and the Department of Defence. He is now a visiting fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC. He has published op-ed pieces recently in the New York Times and the Australian on Iraq issues.

Time for a new defence white paper

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 12/2005

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication calling on the government to develop a new defence white paper.

Authored by ASPI’s Acting Director, Peter Jennings, the ASPI Strategic Insight sets out the reasons why a new defence policy statement is increasingly needed.

“The government will have to make a number of critical defence policy decisions over the next twelve to twenty-four months” Jennings argues.

“These include decisions about our strategic posture, major military capability acquisitions and future plans for defence spending and efficiency measures.”

Jennings said: “These choices could be made in isolation, but the best way to arrive at the right policy outcomes would be via a disciplined and systematic review of our defence policy settings.”

The ASPI Strategic Insight outlines how the government might handle the following vital questions:

” What has really changed in Australia’s strategic outlook as a result of 9/11?

” How does defence policy fit into Australia’s emerging national security strategy?

” What is the best role for the ADF in our counter-terrorism strategies?

” What is the best role for the ADF in promoting stability in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific?

” Is ‘structuring for war and adapting for peace’ still the best approach?

” How far should we adopt network centric warfare?

” What ‘niche forces’ should we maintain for coalition operations?

” Should the Government continue real growth in Defence spending after 2011?

Strengthening Our Neighbour: Australia and the future of Papua New Guinea

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has today released its report, Strengthening Our Neighbour: Australia and the future of Papua New Guinea.

Our nearest neighbour, Papua New Guinea (PNG) faces a host of significant challenges that go to the heart of its long term viability as a functioning state. While there is no acute crisis, many long-term trends are negative. A vicious cycle links failing service delivery, falling revenues and national fragmentation with increasing fragility of government institutions, poor economic performance and a lack legitimacy of the government in the eyes of the people. Underlying all of PNG’s problems are pervasive and systemic weaknesses in the capacity of the PNG state to provide effective government.

PNG’s deterioration matters to Australia for a host of compelling reasons, from high strategic and transnational security concerns through to altruistic impulses born of history, geography and common humanity.

Despite the considerable money and technical skills Australia has invested in PNG over the thirty years since its independence, little we have done has seemed to work. The recent Enhanced Cooperation Program (ECP), under which around 300 Australian police and public servants will help to address PNG’s challenges, is a step in the right direction, but it is too limited in scope to make much impact on the breadth and depth of PNG’s challenges.

This report sets out a policy approach which would enable Australia to play a more active part in helping to strengthen PNG. Such a program of deeper engagement would need to cover the following four elements:

Strengthen the relationship. Set a new direction for the relationship between Australia and PNG, and increase support for cultural, student and academic exchanges and scholarships.

Strengthen the state. Expand and improve programs to help PNG strengthen the state and its institutions, including support for strengthening PNG’s central agencies and for reforms to the handling of public money.

Strengthen the economy. Implement measures designed to strengthen PNG’s economy, including supporting regulatory reform, active support for the private sector, and the possibility of granting Papua New Guineans access to Australia’s labour market. 

Strengthen the nation. Help to build a stronger sense of nationhood in PNG, including support for the media and sport. The report was prepared by Hugh White and Elsina Wainwright, ASPI Strategy and International Program Director, with contributors Ken Baxter, Rowan Callick and Andrea Cole, and PNG perspectives from Sir Mekere Morauta and Charles Lepani.

Scoping Studies – New thinking on security

Launch of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI’s) Strategy report Scoping Studies: New thinking on security

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has today released its report, Scoping Studies: New thinking on security, as a major new contribution to policy thinking on national security.

Scoping Studies presents eleven views from a diverse selection of writers, each presenting their own list of the critical decisions the Government must make to keep Australia secure.

ASPI intends that Scoping Studies should contribute to the defence and national security agenda for this new term of government.

ASPI’s Acting Director, Peter Jennings, says “We gave our contributors the maximum flexibility so they could present their personal views about Australia’s key security challenges.”

“But a number of common themes emerged. Many of our authors called for Australia to develop a stronger national security approach. This would involve more closely coordinating Defence and other areas of government like aid, policing, education links and diplomacy to achieve security objectives.”

“There was also a close focus on the US alliance” Jennings said. “Our authors agree that the alliance is important to Asia-Pacific stability, but there is a wide range of views about how closely Australian policy should be linked to Washington.”

There are also diverse contributions on, among other topics:

  • How Australia should contribute to a stronger ‘human security’ agenda;
  • The need for a new Defence White Paper – and what it should say.
  • The challenge of developing a new defence industry policy.

Scoping Studies includes contributions from some of Australia’s leading thinkers on defence and security. Our eleven authors include academics, former senior military figures, and individuals with journalistic, industry and public service backgrounds.

“ASPI is delighted to release Scoping Studies as the latest issue in our Strategy series” Jennings, said.

“We hope these papers will help to invigorate a strong public debate on Australia’s increasingly demanding policy challenges in defence and security.”