Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 20/2005

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication titled ‘Crunch Time: Planning Australia’s future defence forces’.

In the coming months the government will make some big decisions about how billions of dollars will be spent in the next stage of Australia’s largest military build up since Vietnam. The result will be two public documents: A revised Defence Capability Plan that sets out the acquisition program for the next decade, and a Strategic Update containing an explanation of why these new investments are needed. 

Crunch Time examines the issues faced by the government in producing these two documents and explores the critical question of long-term Defence funding.

In releasing the document, Dr Thomson said:

‘On past experience, the Strategic Update will provide an overview of recent strategic developments and an assessment of the implications for Australia. Central to this, will be judgements by the government about how and where Australia’s military forces might be employed in the future.’

It is only by clarifying the future role of the defence force that the rationale behind the individual projects in the multi-billion dollar Defence Capability Plan can be made clear. 

‘The government will also have to decide how much it is willing to spend on defence. Five years ago, they made a decade-long funding commitment of average 3% real growth, but that runs out in 2010.’

‘In the absence of increased spending past the end of the decade, either the planned level of capital investment must be cut, or the size of defence force reduced, or both. There are no easy solutions given the looming fiscal impact of Australia’s ageing population.’

‘We can only be sure that the government is developing a sustainable defence force with the right capabilities if we see: 

A Strategic Update that clarifies the outstanding issues in Australia’s strategic policy, including a clear statement of the role of the Army and its amphibious component. 

A Defence Capability Plan that sets out the military capabilities to be developed in the future, which is consistent with the top-down guidance in the Strategic Update.

A decade-long funding commitment out to 2015 that covers the cost of acquiring and operating existing and planned capabilities, balanced against what’s affordable for the nation in the long-term.’

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released its report Local Jihad: Radical Islam and terrorism in Indonesia.

The report is authored by Dr Greg Fealy, research fellow and lecturer in Indonesian politics at the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies and the Faculty of Asian Studies at the Australian National University (ANU) and Aldo Borgu, Program Director Operations and Capability.

‘The events of the past six years have prompted a dramatic reassessment of Indonesian Islam. What was once widely seen as one of the most tolerant and benign expressions of Islam in the Muslim world has recently come to be regarded as having more malign qualities. Recent violent radicalism in Indonesia is seen by many as a relatively recent phenomenon. But a closer look at modern Indonesian history reveals the inaccuracy of this view.’ Dr Fealy says.

‘The September 2004 bombing of the Australian Embassy in Jakarta demonstrated that Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) is still a force to be reckoned with. However, given that the blast came more than a year after JI’s last major operation, it raises questions about the organisation’s capabilities, strategic objectives and tactics. Answering these questions becomes more important in determining what our policy choices should be.’ Aldo Borgu states.

Terrorism might be a global issue but for Australia the threat is inexplicably tied up with the problems of the future stability of our neighbours, particularly Indonesia. This ASPI report reveals that while groups like JI might have global links, their motivations, recruiting and operations are inextricably caught up in regional issues. So in addition to our global efforts we also require a regional strategy tailored to regional solutions. 

The report makes a number of recommendations as to what such a regional strategy might involve including ongoing measurements of Indonesian public attitudes towards Australia; development of a public diplomacy strategy; improving our knowledge base on the terrorists themselves; widening our capacity building efforts with Indonesian agencies; expanding maritime cooperation and improving the coordination of intelligence and exchange of information within Indonesia.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released its report Your Defence Dollar: The 2005-06 Defence Budget.

Your Defence Dollar is a concise summary of ASPI’s Cost of Defence budget brief released in May, taking into account additional information that has arisen since then. 

In releasing the document, Dr Thomson said:

Next financial year Defence will spend around $17.5 billion of taxpayer’s money. This is an increase of $880 million compared with the funding for this year, and represents just on 1.9% of GDP.

In the budget, Defence was given $1.2 billion in new initiatives to deliver over four years. This included $421 million for our expanded and continuing role in Iraq and $300 million extra for capital investment.

But the budget also included some belt tightening for Defence. They have to achieve around $440 million in reduced overheads and other efficiencies over the next four years. This should be achievable.

One worrying issue revealed by the budget was that full-time military personnel numbers have fallen for the second year in a row – at a time when the ADF is trying to grow. This is despite $400 million having been spent over the past four years to improve recruitment, retention and conditions of service.

There was mixed news for the Government’s decade-long $50 billion Defence Capability Plan of investment in new military equipment. 

On the positive side, the reforms to Defence’s acquisition agency – the Defence Materiel Organisation – appear to be gaining traction. Not only are they on track to exceed their goals for this year, but $300 million of previously deferred spending has been reinstated into next year’s budget. This is an encouraging sign. 

However, at the same time, the approval of new projects by the Government has fallen significantly behind schedule. The main reason for this appears to be the new and more-rigorous project approval process that has been put in place. In the long run this should lead to better project outcomes. However, the fact remains that unless projects are approved on schedule they are unlikely to be delivered on schedule.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released its latest report, which examines what the strategic future holds for Australia’s relationship with the United States. 

The Strategy is authored by Dr Rod Lyon, Senior Lecturer, School of Political Science & International Studies at the University of Queensland, and titled ‘Alliance Unleashed: Australia and the US in a new strategic age’.

The report concentrates on the reinvigorated Australia-US security partnership through the ANZUS alliance, which has been given new purpose and energy following the events of September 11 2001 and the subsequent War on Terror. 

Lyon argues that Australia must begin thinking now about what our future security partnership should look like, how much of the new partnership we wish to place under the formal auspices of the ANZUS alliance, and how the emerging pattern of closer cooperation can best serve Australia’s interests.

Professor Curson advises that: “If left unchecked, epidemics of infectious disease can substantially undermine public confidence, jeopardise law and order, severely threaten a state’s social, economic and political viability and become a major agent of social and political change.”

‘Lyon argues that we need to shape ANZUS to reflect the reality that security partnerships are becoming more like full-time enterprises and less like insurance policies for a rainy day.’ ASPI Director, Peter Abigail says. 

The reinvention of the bilateral security partnership has already begun. Australia is now engaged in much closer security cooperation with the US than are many other Western allies with the security connection between Canberra and Washington being broadened and strengthened.

‘For over a century, the notion of partnership has been a key feature of Australia’s approach to security we have never gone to war alone…security partnerships have been, and remain today, the foundation stone of Australian security policy.’ Dr Lyon states.

Dr Lyon says we can expect to see the Bush Administration showing greater interest in the value of alliances, pressing for a new agenda of change. For alliances to be effective security partnerships in the new security environment, they will have to take on a set of characteristics different from those of the past fifty years.

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 16/2005 

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication, examining the threat of emerging pandemics and Australia’s need to reassess its preparedness for a major outbreak of infectious disease. 

Authored by Professorial Fellow in Medical Geography and Director of the Health Studies Program at Macquarie University, Peter Curson, the Insight argues that Australia can no longer take refuge in the barriers of time and distance as an effective defence against world wide pandemics. 

“Over the last 30 years, approximately 40 newly emerged infections have been identified in the world, including AIDS, Legionnaires Disease, Lyme Disease, Ebola, Mad Cow Disease, SARS and Bird Flu.”

“The harsh reality is that when faced with a microbial enemy that proliferates rapidly, mutates frequently, spreads internationally, and which cannot be directly linked to a particular aggressor, Australia’s reliance on distance and national borders no longer constitute a satisfactory defence.”

Professor Curson advises that: “If left unchecked, epidemics of infectious disease can substantially undermine public confidence, jeopardise law and order, severely threaten a state’s social, economic and political viability and become a major agent of social and political change.”

“The spread of infectious disease endangers Australia’s national security on the proposition that the health of Australia’s population is a critical resource vital to the stability of the nation, and such disease threatens not only the livelihood and way of life of individuals, but also targets the stability and viability of the state.” 

The paper highlights the challenges for Australia as infectious diseases stake a claim on the national security agenda.