Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 25/2006

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight that examines the context within which recent efforts at UN reform should be understood while assessing the key institutional and normative achievements over the last few years.

As the dust settles from the 2005 UN reform jamboree and Kofi Annan enters the twilight months of his second term as Secretary-General, the United Nations has created two new institutions—a Peacebuilding Commission and a Human Rights Council—but has anything really changed? 

Author and Executive Director of the Institute for International Law and Justice at NYU School of Law Simon Chesterman considers those achievements to be underwhelming. But when contrasted with the divisions over Iraq that split the UN in 2003, the better evaluation might not be whether the glass is half-empty or half-full, but how it is that we continue to have a glass at all.

‘The discussion of reform has always begged the question of whether that reform must take place primarily in the structures, procedures, and personnel that make up the United Nations, or in the willingness of member states to use them. Past efforts at creating and changing the international institutions of peace and security have tended to be led by political will, which is most plentiful in a time of crisis,’ Dr Chesterman writes. 

‘In the wake of the Iraq war, anxiety concerning the role and relevance of the United Nations was widespread. But leadership on the reform agenda came, unusually, from the Secretary-General. It was Kofi Annan who appointed the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change, which attempted to grapple with legitimate US security concerns while broadening discussion of international threats beyond its counter-terrorism and non-proliferation agenda.’

As his term closes Secretary-General Annan’s efforts to drive reform and the response of member states provide a lens through which to view the promise, the prospects, and the limitations of the United Nations as an institution and as an idea.

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 24/2006

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication which examines Malaysia’s strategic objectives and positioning in relation to the great powers in its region, and its attempts to finesse bilateral and multilateral relations with those powers. 

Authored by Dr John Lee, Managing Director and co-founder of research and conferences company L21 the Insight argues that as Malaysia’s regional strategy swings between criticism of and cooperation with the US and praise and suspicion of China, these variations have made Malaysia’s strategic aims hard to read.

‘However, despite the various faces of its diplomacy, Malaysia’s strategic aim has been consistent: to hedge against domination.’ Dr Lee says.

‘Since emerging from the Cold War strategic straitjacket, Malaysia has grasped the opportunity to rethink its place in the international system and its policies towards great powers, and—crucially—to align foreign security strategy with internal and domestic priorities.’ 

‘By successfully forging its image as a renegade leader against Western ‘cultural imperialism’, Malaysia has found admirers in developing and Islamic countries. This led to Malaysia’s hedging strategy with the US suffering from diplomatic lows from late 1998 to 2001 despite the continuation of robust US-Malaysian security links during this period.’ 

The anticipated rise of China has caused consternation among ASEAN countries for decades. China’s size and proximity, the greatness and longevity of Chinese civilisation, the strength of Chinese nationalism, and the diaspora of disproportionately affluent ethnic Chinese minorities (such as in Malaysia) were all grounds for wariness. More recently, China’s continued development and military modernisation show irrefutably that her presence and influence will grow.

In May 2005, Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi proclaimed relations with China to be at their ‘best ever’. While remaining strategically ambivalent towards China on security matters, and encouraging a continued security partnership of sorts with the US, Malaysia has used a dual tactic of bilateral economic engagement and reviving regional activism as part of its hedging strategy as it carefully watches China’s rise.

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 23/2006

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication which examines the current situation in Afghanistan, including international security and reconstruction efforts. It analyses NATO’s expansion into the south of Afghanistan and in particular the 200-strong Australian Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) deployment to the province of Oruzgan, which is due in late July. 

Authored by Strategy and International Program Director Dr Elsina Wainwright, the Insight argues that notwithstanding these new initiatives, insufficient international attention is still being paid to Afghanistan, and it remains an acutely fragile state. Afghanistan has had far fewer international troops and aid per capita than operations in East Timor, Kosovo, Bosnia and Iraq. Several security trends are also worrying, especially the increase in insurgent activity. There were around 1600 Afghan deaths and 91US military deaths from insurgency-related activity in 2005—a 20% increase in a year, making 2005 the most dangerous in Afghanistan since 2001. The insurgency has recently changed tactics, with suicide attacks up almost fourfold in 2005 from 2004 and the use of improvised explosive devices more than doubling in the past year.

‘NATO’s extension into the south and later the east of Afghanistan is appropriate. Real threats to Afghanistan’s stability lie in these regions: they are the heartland of the insurgency. As a result, the deployments will be dangerous for all participating states, including Australia. Predictions have been made that the Taliban and Al Qaeda will seek to test deploying troops.’

‘Australia’s PRT deployment to the restive southern province of Oruzgan, birthplace of former Taliban leader Mullah Omah, will carry considerable risks.’

‘The Australian PRT deployment will also involve a number of operational challenges. Australian forces will receive protection from the Dutch troops, and their security therefore depends on very robust Dutch rules of engagement.’

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has today released its report, Cutting Edge: The Collins experience.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new Strategic Insight publication examining the Collins Class submarine project – the most ambitious and controversial defence project ever undertaken in Australia. 

Authored by Patrick Walters, National Security Editor, The Australian, and titled ‘Cutting Edge: The Collins experience’, this Insight provides a broad overview of the Collins Class project. It examines the industry, capability and strategic impact of this complex defence project and finds that the Commonwealth’s $5 billion investment has not only provided Australia with a key strategic asset but also greatly boosted the skill base of our naval construction industry.

‘The Collins submarines are very quiet and have performed exceptionally well on long deployment and in regular exercises with the United States Navy. One of Australia’s most vital front-line defence assets they are now widely regarded as the finest conventional submarines in the world.’ Walters writes.

‘The strategic importance of this local industry capacity is underlined by the fact that no future off-the-shelf submarine is likely to come close to Australia’s unique requirements.’

The paper finds that not all the original industry goals for the Collins class were achieved. The Australian build did not produce the export program envisaged by government and industry in the 1990s. Strategic, political and commercial considerations have meant that this unique marriage of European, US and Australian technologies has not produced an export version of the Collins. 

The government will have to make a decision early next decade whether to go ahead with an Australian build of a new generation submarine, which would require another bold commitment from government and close collaboration between the Defence Organisation and local industry.

A crucial test for ASC and Australian industry will be the Air Warfare Destroyer (AWD) project which is scheduled to deliver its first warship in 2013. Successfully meeting this challenge and lifting Australia’s industry skills base should give future governments the confidence to progress the construction of Australia’s next generation submarine.

‘The all-round experience gained from the Collins class augurs well for the future.’ Patrick concludes.

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 21/2005

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication titled ‘Pakistan’s Musharraf: Playing a balancing act’ , reviewing the key domestic and foreign policy issues confronting Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf. The report also investigates what the Australian Government’s interests and options are in supporting the president as he tries to handle his country’s challenging domestic and external environment.

The report was authored by Dr Claude Rakisits, who heads independent consultancy Geopolitical Assessments, focusing on developments in South Asia, the Middle East and Africa. 

He states that ‘The Australian Government’s interest in Pakistan first increased significantly after 9/11, and particularly following Musharraf’s crucial decision to join the West in the War on Terror. As a result of this, Australia re-established in late September 2001 bilateral defence relations, which had previously been suspended following Pakistan’s May 1998 nuclear tests.’

‘Pakistan’s important role in the War on Terror was recognised during Musharraf’s visit to Australia, in June 2005, with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Counter-Terrorism, setting up the framework for the exchange of information and intelligence, joint training activities and capacity building initiatives.

‘President Pervez Musharraf’s state visit to Australia-the first by Pakistan’s head of state-highlights Australia’s increasing interest in Pakistan, an interest demonstrated even more so by Canberra’s response to the devastating earthquake in Pakistan last month. The Australian Government’s quick response in providing over $14 million in assistance has further consolidated this deepening relationship.’

‘The US also provided US$50 million in humanitarian assistance, which it has made clear, was to thank Pakistan for its contribution to the War on Terror.’ Dr Rakisits says. 

The Insight offers several policy recommendations designed to promote Australia’s interests in Pakistan and to support President Musharraf, particularly in this time of crisis.