ASPI’s international conference: The Submarine Choice.

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute will host an international conference: The Submarine Choice on Wednesday, 9 April until Thursday, 10 April at the Hyatt Hotel, Canberra.

As the government moves closer to deciding on Australia’s Future Submarine, ASPI has brought together senior policymakers, high-level military officials, leading industry representatives and academics from Australia and around the world.

Speakers, including Senator the Hon David Johnston; ADM Harry B. Harris—US Pacific Fleet; VADM Ray Griggs—Chief of Navy; RADM Phillip G. Sawyer—Commander, US Submarine Force, US Pacific Fleet and many more, will discuss key aspects of what will arguably be the most expensive and technologically complex defence capability project in the history of the nation.

ASPI’s conference aims to share different perspectives on the Future Submarine’s strategic, economic and industry dimensions with a view to informing government’s decision-making process. ASPI’s international conference will provide a great networking opportunity and exposure to the ‘who’s who’ of the submarine world.

The topics include:

·         The Strategic Context

·         The Navy’s Perspective

·         Regional Perspectives

·         Design Options

·         Industry and Economics

·         Project Management

·         Lessons from Abroad.

ASPI releases Special Report: A return on investment: the future of police cooperation between Australia and Indonesia

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ASPI releases ‘Special Report: A return on investment: the future of police cooperation between Australia and Indonesia’, by David Connery, Natalie Sambhi and Michael McKenzie. You can download a copy of this report here.

The relationship between Australia’s Federal Police and their Indonesian counterpart, the Indonesian National Police (POLRI), is a remarkable story of cooperation that has delivered benefits for both countries.

There’s a maturity in the relationship reached by the number of cooperative law enforcement initiatives, particularly since the Bali bombings. But there’s also a freeze in aspects of the security relationship between the two countries and so the police-to-police relationship now is at an inflection point. 

This Special Report examines the history of the AFP–POLRI relationship, articulates its many benefits, and then develops near- and long-term strategies for future police cooperation.
The key recommendations for consolidating the close police relationship include people-to-people activities. The 10-year anniversary of the highly-successful Jakarta Centre for Law Enforcement Cooperation (JCLEC) presents a good opportunity to highlight successful ties. Australia should also invite POLRI officers to Canberra to assist with the security arrangements for the November G20 meeting.

In the longer-term, Australia and Indonesia should leverage police cooperation as a way to add ballast to the bilateral relationship. This should include bringing more POLRI officers to Australia on long-duration secondments, creating a police alumni association, and making more extensive use of the JCLEC to train provincial-level police officers in Indonesia. New initiatives to share criminal threat information with business, particularly in Indonesia, would also be welcome. Regional conditions also provide great opportunities to work together to deliver police development training to the Myanmar Police. Such cooperation would not only leverage the substantial investment that’s already been made in the relationship—it would also add depth and demonstrate the practical value of Indonesian–Australian cooperation, now and in the future.

Strategic Insights: Taking wing: Time to decide on the F-35 Joint Strike

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ASPI has released ‘Strategic Insights: Taking wing: Time to decide on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter’ by Andrew Davies and Harry White. Download a copy of this report here.

The government is about to make a decision on whether to spend between $8 and 10 billion of taxpayer’s money on the new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. It’s also an important call because it will cement the F-35 as the main instrument of Australian air-power for decades into the future.

The F-35 has a troubled past—management issues and the enormous complexity of the project have caused significant cost and schedule overruns. But now it seems to be on track to come into service with the RAAF in 2020, and to be a very capable aircraft.

The other option is a further purchase of less-advanced Super Hornets, which would come with a marginally lower price tag. But that choice would come at a cost to Canberra’s relationship with Washington as we pulled out of the US-run program, and provide less capability in a region replete with rapid military modernisation.

ASPI releases Strategic Insight: Manufacturing partners: Japan–South Korea security cooperation and Australia’s potential role

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Today ASPI releases ‘Strategic Insight: Manufacturing partners: Japan–South Korea security cooperation and Australia’s potential role’ by Hayley Channer. Download a copy of this report here.

In Asia, Australia has no closer strategic and ideological partners than Japan and South Korea. Our similar strategic outlooks, economic ties, alliances with the US and liberal democratic values make us highly compatible partners. But while Australia’s bilateral relations are trending upwards, the Japan–ROK relationship has been spiralling downwards.

Problems in Japan–ROK relations are nothing new, but since two bilateral military accords fell through in mid-2012 the relationship has deteriorated to its lowest point in decades. It’s becoming apparent that the two countries could benefit from outside intervention to facilitate deeper cooperation.

Australia is emerging as a potentially effective facilitator of Japan–ROK security cooperation. Australia could ‘manufacture’ a closer security partnership between the two and achieve multiple strategic objectives through trilateral security cooperation.

This paper identifies how Australia fits into Japan–ROK cooperation, the merits and pitfalls of trilateral security cooperation, and whether it’s in Australia’s interests to pursue such an initiative. It draws on over thirty interviews with Japanese, South Korean and Australian specialists, media coverage, alliance theory, and academic analysis to provide recommendations to the government on how Australia can take a more proactive role in developing relations with and between Tokyo and Seoul and tackling regional security challenges.

ASPI releases: A rising power looks down under: Chinese perspectives on Australia

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Thursday 6th March 2014– The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a Strategy Report by Dr Jingdong Yuan: A rising power looks down under: Chinese perspectives on Australia. Click here to download a PDF copy of the report. 

Sino-Australian diplomatic, economic and security ties have experienced significant growth over the past four decades. The general trends have been positive, especially in the economic area, where the two countries have developed strong and mutually beneficial interdependence. However, bilateral relations periodically encounter difficulties and occasionally suffer major setbacks, largely due to differences in ideologies and sociopolitical systems, issues such as Tibet, Taiwan and human rights, and emerging challenges ranging from cybersecurity to the geostrategic shift in the region marked by China’s rise and the US’s rebalancing to Asia.

While there have been substantive debates in Australia on the implications of China’s rise, much less is known about Chinese perspectives on Australia.

To help understand Chinese views of Australia, the paper develops its analysis by drawing from four main sources:

·         official Chinese documents and leaders’ statements as reported in the media or recorded in official dossiers

·         academic analyses published in scholarly journals

·         media coverage of Sino-Australian relations and Australian issues in general

·         a series of interviews the author has conducted with specialists in Chinese think tanks and academic institutions.

Chinese analysts are paying closer attention not only to Australia–US relations, but also to Australia’s aspirations and role as a proactive and creative middle power in regional and global affairs, especially where Canberra’s diplomacy affects issues important to Beijing. Those areas range from nuclear arms control and disarmament, humanitarian interventions and trade negotiations to maritime territorial disputes.

China’s rise offers opportunities as much as it presents challenges to Australian foreign policy.

Australia needs a stable international environment and continued economic growth. A realistic, stable, and forward-looking relationship with China is imperative.

The paper says the Abbott government should have a China policy that’s the result of multi-agency consultation, bipartisan support and internal cohesion within the Coalition and is presented in a unified voice. Canberra should be results-oriented and problem-solving to promote national interests and place less emphasis and diplomatic capital on merely making political statements and grandstanding, which mightn’t be as effective as wished for and, at worst, could be counterproductive.

Dr Jingdong Yuan is Associate Professor at the Centre for International Security Studies and the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney, where he is also an academic member of the China Studies Centre.

CIGI-ASPI major report provides roadmap for Canada and Australia to contribute to regional stability in Asia-Pacific

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A new special report published by The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) and Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) calls for Canada and Australia to deepen their regional security cooperation in East Asia.

Directed by CIGI Distinguished Fellow Len Edwards and ASPI Executive Director Peter Jennings, the year-and-half long study involved intensive consultations with key regional experts and policymakers in the Asia-Pacific. Its final recommendations are contained in the study’s final report, Facing West, Facing North: Canada and Australia in East Asia.  The report was presented today at the Conference of Defence Associations Institute’s 2014 Ottawa Conference and will be presented at the 2014 Australia-Canada Economic Leadership in Melbourne, Australia.

The risk of regional instability is growing…due to China’s re-emergence, continued speculation about US strategic engagement in Asia and increased competition over disputed maritime boundaries,” says the report. “These developments provide opportunities for collaboration between countries like Canada and Australia. Non-traditional security threats, including natural disasters, climate change, food security and cyber security, point to a range of areas where the two countries can work more closely together.

The report calls for Canada and Australia to pursue the following:

  • Align their separate defence and security engagement activities in East Asia, share lessons learned and look for ways to maximize their separate and collective impact in cooperating with regional friends.
  • Work to strengthen regional capabilities in ways that add to stability, in particular, in the areas of peacekeeping skills, counterterrorism, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and cyber resilience. They can also work with others to make regional security governance more effective.
  • Deepen their individual defence and security dialogues and look for cost effective ways to do more together across a broad sweep of areas from exercises to defence reform planning.
  • Find ways to align defence procurement plans to find cost savings and share best practices on equipment procurement. Their reputation as reliable suppliers of freely traded agricultural and energy products should also be strengthened.

“Canada and Australia have both emphasized aspects of their ties to Asia — for Australia, its proximity to the region, and for Canada, its significant Asian population — and both have a national interest in contributing to regional peace and security in a region both identify as the driver of their future prosperity,” says the report. “Combined with their ambitions for closer trade and investment ties with Asia, the two countries have a genuine interest in contributing to peace and security in the world’s most economically vibrant region.”

The report contains several policy recommendations for Canada and Australia to:

  • Strengthen regional security
  • Bolster regional governance mechanisms
  • Enhance bilateral defence cooperation
  • Boost defence industry and economic cooperation

To download a free PDF copy of Facing West, Facing North: Canada and Australia in East Asia, please click here.

Release of ASPI Strategic Insights: Afghanistan—transition to transformation: a role for Australia in helping shape Afghanistan’s future

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On 31 December 2014, Afghanistan will move from a UN-led period of ‘transition’ (2001–2014) to an Afghan-led and -owned ‘transformation decade’ (2015–2024). During transition, the UN has sought to rebuild the basic political, economic and societal infrastructure of Afghanistan. The US and NATO, including Australian forces, which comprise the International Security Assistance Force Afghanistan (ISAF), have had the lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s national security during this period.

The transformation decade will seek to consolidate and build on the outcomes of transition to ensure Afghanistan’s future as a functional, stable and durable state. The Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) will have the lead responsibility for national security during transformation.

Although transition still has nearly a year to go, the end-of-2014 scorecard is expected to be a mix of positives and negatives.

Unless a major turn-around occurs, most national and foreign interlocutors interviewed for this report view Afghanistan’s short and longer term future with varying degrees of pessimism.

There’s a role for Australia including working unilaterally and with other nations, to help shape Afghanistan’s future. We’ve already publicly committed, on a bipartisan basis, to the long-term security, trade and development of Afghanistan after 2014. This report details other approaches including lobbying Afghan politicians to commit to their responsibilities for building the future; improve effectiveness of aid; support multinational, regional and donor countries initiatives to promote political, security and economic cooperation and development that will benefit Afghanistan and its neighbours; utilising other means and opportunities as they arise by using the resources and influence derived from our current membership of the UN Security Council.

You can read the report, authored by Ian Dudgeon, here.

Contact: Cassandra Joyce

Phone: 02 6270 5148

ASPI ranks highly in international survey of think tanks

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ASPI has once again been rated as a world class Institute in the University of Pennsylvania’s 2013 Global Go-To Think Tank Index.

Last year ASPI ranked in the top 30 of Security and International Affairs Think Tanks. This year that category has been split, and ASPI is pleased to have made it onto both new lists. ASPI ranks in the top 20 of ‘defense and national security think tanks’, the highest ranked institute in that category outside of Europe and the United States, and in the top 30 of ‘foreign policy and international affairs think tanks’. 

After 18 months of hard work on establishing our social media presence, ASPI has made its debut in the ‘best use of social networks’ category, ranking in the top 30. Our extensive social media reach allows ASPI to communicate its first class research and analytic ability to the public, something we believe is important as a majority publically  funded think tank.

ASPI is also very pleased to note that its collaboration with South Africa’s Brenthurst Foundation has been recognised as a top 30 collaborative venture. Our work with Brenthurst reflects the importance both our institutes see in developing mature policy discussions both within Africa and with the international community.

Finally, ASPI is delighted to see that the international community thinks that our best work is still ahead of us, ranking us number two on the list of ‘Think tanks to watch’. Given that the number one position was the BRICS Policy Centre in Brazil, representing what by common consensus is the most important developing area in international affairs, we appreciate the vote of confidence.

To see the report go to http://gotothinktank.com/

Contact: Lynne Gozzard

Phone: 02 6270 5109

ASPI is expanding its research team

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ASPI is expanding its team of experts and research scope to respond to the challenges presented by a more complicated strategic outlook and to make a contribution to thinking for a new Defence White Paper in 2013.

Following the departure of Dr Carl Ungerer as National Security Program Director, ASPI is recruiting two Program Directors and one or more Research Associates to provide high level support to the Institute’s research programs. This is an exceptional opportunity for talented individuals to contribute to the work of Australia’s leading think tank on defence and strategic policy issues.

ASPI has been ranked among the top 30 think tanks on security and international affairs in the world in the Go-to Think Tanks index compiled annually by the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program at the University of Pennsylvania. 

Some of the research topics and expertise that the new positions will cover include international defence and security, US–Australia relations and trends, the security aspects of cyberspace, Australian national security policy, Chinese military capability, the strategic dimensions of international economics with a focus on our region, and Australian defence capability development and budgeting.

More information about this recruitment can be found here.

Beyond Af-Pak: Australia’s long-term interests in Pakistan

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new Strategic Insights publication titled ‘Beyond Af-Pak: Australia’s long-term interests in Pakistan’ by Kate Boswood, Jacob Townsend and Silal Shafqat.

The report argues that stability in Pakistan will remain central to the international community’s interests in South Asia, well beyond the war in Afghanistan.

Australia is not a major player shaping the international community’s interests in Pakistan. But we can contribute by fostering security at the margins because we are viewed as having less of an ‘agenda’ or political baggage than others. Australia should shift its practical actions to peripheral geographic areas to engage with Pakistan’s major zones of instability. 
 
The most important of these are Pakistan’s border areas with Afghanistan: Balochistan province, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (KPK) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Large swathes of these areas have long been identified as incubators and theatres of serious transnational security challenges, with impacts felt regionally and globally. But no Australian department is directly attempting to improve security at the local level in Balochistan and KPK.

Australia’s current assistance does not address community insecurity directly. We are missing a strategy that aligns our long-term interests in Pakistan’s stability with more substantive opportunities to pursue them. A practical emphasis on improving community security in Pakistan’s border areas would more closely align with our priority of supporting Pakistan’s stability.

Australia should:
• strengthen civilian oversight of police
• strengthen community policing
• improve training for lower police ranks.

Australia should stress the importance of Pakistan’s future, regardless of what happens in Afghanistan. 
By shifting the focus to improving stability in Pakistan’s peripheries, Australia will find feasible opportunities for engagement that more directly align with our interests. Promoting community security—by supporting civilian oversight of police, community policing pilots, and training for low-rank personnel—is a niche that Australia can fill.