In the Balance: China’s unprecedented growth and implications for the Asia-Pacific
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has today released its report, In the Balance: China’s unprecedented growth and implications for the Asia-Pacific.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released its latest Strategy report, delivering an assessment of China’s economic prospects and the impact on the Asia—Pacific region.
The report is authored by David D Hale, a Chicago-based economist and founding chairman of Hale Advisors and China Online and was launched at Parliament House, Canberra.
Few issues are more important to Australia’s long-term strategic position in the Asia-Pacific than the health of China’s economy and the nature of Beijing’s foreign and defence policies.
Hale provides startling data to show how rapidly China is coming to dominate not only the Asia-Pacific economies, but also to be a fundamental driving factor in Europe and North America. Hale says: ‘China could soon be the world’s leading exporter, she has a great strategic interest in promoting an open multilateral trading system rather than a world characterised by regional trade agreements.’
His paper also assesses some of the serious impediments in the way of continuing high growth. Most critically of all he argues that: ‘The great challenge now confronting China is to complete the transition to a transparent market economy with a democratic form of government.’
What are the likely foreign and strategic policy implications? Hale says ‘The rise of China will be the first major test of whether [the global system of states] has the capacity to cope with a new great power.’
China is increasingly active on a global diplomatic stage, pursuing resources in places as far afield as Zimbabwe, the Sudan and Venezuela. China has a growing strategic interest in Central Asia and the Middle East and this is creating a new dimension in Beijing’s relationship with the United States and other major powers.
Hale points out: ‘The experience of 1914 is a warning that one cannot depend upon economic factors to resolve political conflicts, but the situation in East Asia today contains fewer political risks than Europe during the early 20th century.’
‘It is critical to understand that the reemergence of China will have profound implications for geopolitical relationships, not just trading interests.’