BEYOND BAGHDAD: ASPI’S STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT 2004

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Release of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI’s) Strategic Assessment 2004

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released its report Beyond Baghdad: ASPI’s Strategic Assessment 2004.

“Australia faces its most challenging and turbulent strategic outlook since the mid-1960s.”

This is the key judgement in Beyond Baghdad, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s 2004 Strategic Assessment, released today.

ASPI’s annual Strategic Assessment is Australia’s only public survey of the full range of defence and security issues facing the nation. Beyond Baghdad was written by ASPI Director of Programs, Peter Jennings.

Among the issues covered in Beyond Baghdad:

Terrorists will attack Australia if they identify an opportunity. We have little choice but to take al Qaeda at its word when it claims that Australia is a target.

Iraq’s future prospects are poised on a knife edge. One possible outcome is the creation of a stable, more open and prosperous regime in the Middle East. The other is anarchy, and a substantial rebuff to America’s place in the world.

A new age of warfare, where precision strike weapons and low-technology fertiliser bombs compete uneasily for dominance.

America’s economic and military power will make it the world’s strongest state for the foreseeable future. Australia’s defence alliance with the US remains vital, and we should look for new ways to strengthen cooperation while retaining our independent approach to security.

In North Asia, the character of Chinese power is the dominating strategic issue. In Japan, a brighter economic picture is matched by more outward-looking foreign and security policies.

Southeast Asian governments are struggling with economic modernisation, weak administrations, terrorism, and leadership transitions. 

In the South Pacific, Australia must ask tough questions about the long-term viability of the island states.

In an age when security problems are horizontal – with challenges as diverse as terrorism and border security — our government structures are narrowly vertical.

Beyond Baghdad calls for the government to accelerate progress towards developing a national security strategy.