Australia’s strategic fundamentals. Release of ASPI Special Report

ASPI has released a new publication: Australia’s strategic fundamentals authored by Dr Rod Lyon.

Over the last year the subject of Australian strategy has been the basis of considerable discussion.  That debate has been driven by a greater sense of uncertainty over what is—or ought to be—the ‘ordering principle’ of Australian strategic thinking.  In an era of quickening globalisation and heightened strategic complexity, geography is proving a less useful determinant of strategic priorities.  Rather, Australia has in recent years been strengthening its role as an ‘order-builder’, at both the global and regional levels. 

At the global level, our traditional fear — a revisionist great power — is not currently a central concern.  The principal challenge to global order now comes from small, radical adversaries attracted to asymmetrical warfare, and this is unlikely to change soon.  At this level, the dominant form of conflict will be one which pits states against non-state adversaries, and we will need to have available capacities for fighting exactly the sort of conflict that Western militaries haven’t been much good at fighting. 
 
At the regional level the principal challenge will more familiar, as a US-centred security order evolves to accommodate larger security roles for Japan, China and India.  At this level, our strategy must be to pull that evolving order towards stability, good governance and economic openness.  If we are to play a role in drawing the regional great powers into cooperative order-building, we need an ADF capable of partnering those countries in peacekeeping and stabilisation missions, disaster relief, and protection of sea-lanes, for example.  But we must also have some capacity to respond to malign shifts in the Asian security order if necessary.

Meanwhile, the reinvigoration of a metropolitan leadership role for Australia in the South Pacific demonstrates our commitment to order-building more locally.  We will certainly require our ADF and AFP to have the capacities to conduct protracted and substantial intervention missions around the South Pacific.  But we will need to use a whole-of-government approach to encourage sustainable economic development and liberal, democratic forms of good governance within the neighbourhood.

Securing Australia’s fundamental strategic interests in the 21st century will remain a complex and demanding task.