Strategist Article Archives - Page 1149 of 1187

Indonesia: priorities, politics, perceptions and Papua

7 April 2013

There is reason to be pleased with the defence outcomes of the 2 plus 2 meeting just concluded in Jakarta. For once delivered without hype, the meeting’s communiqué points to solid progress in building a closer relationship between two unlikely friends, Australia and Indonesia. Although the unemotional Stephen Smith and the flamboyant Purnomo Yusgiantoro must qualify as the Odd Couple of regional defence diplomacy, it seems that the two ministers have established a good rapport. The Australian decision to brief Indonesia closely on the development of the 2013 Defence White Paper has been rewarded with an offer from Purnomo to do the same for a planned Indonesian defence statement next year. That’s a good basis for building a closer dialogue.

Australia’s offer to provide the Indonesian military with an additional five C-130H Hercules aircraft at ‘mates rates’ after the gifting of an initial four is a useful development for both countries. This will boost Indonesia’s air-lift capacity, shortfalls in which hamper our cooperation in responding to natural disasters. Commitments to increasing exercises and the perennial promise of considering joint maritime patrolling are all steps on the right track. Earlier on The Strategist I proposed a number of practical steps that could be taken to build further defence-to-defence links, so there’s scope for the relationship to grow further. Read more

De-escalating the North Korean nuclear crisis

5 April 2013

This morning, I read the first piece of sensible analysis that I have seen on the current escalating North Korean nuclear crisis. It’s an article titled ‘Rattling the American Cage: North Korean Nuclear Threats and Escalation Potential’ (PDF), co-authored by Peter Hayes and Roger Cavazos—two authors from the Nautilus Institute, both of whom have a deep understanding of proliferation dynamics and have been studying North Korean behaviour for many years. I hope everyone with an interest in defusing what has become a very tense standoff will read it, as a weighty and well-informed alternative to the otherwise shallow, hysterical and mostly counter-productive commentary that has appeared in the media in recent days.

Their argument goes like this: based on past patterns of behaviour, it’s most likely that the latest round of North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship is calculated to consolidate Kim Jong Un’s charismatic leadership and demonstrate the country’s independence, in defiance of international condemnation, UN Security Council sanctions and the Obama administration’s (failed) policy of strategic patience. Accordingly, Pyongyang’s intention is not to attack South Korea, pre-emptively or otherwise, but to signal to the international community—and the US in particular—that the costs of what Pyongyang regards as a hostile and unjust US-led policy of isolation and intimidation are growing. Kim Jong Un’s ultimate goal is thus extortion rather than pure deterrence—to bring about a change in US policy that will bolster and legitimise his regime. Read more

ANZUS and the alliance security dilemma

5 April 2013

Future challenges to the US–Australia alliance will revolve around tensions inherent in what Glenn Snyder identifies as ‘the alliance security dilemma’. Modern alliances are characterised by the dual fears of abandonment and entrapment—the client state simultaneously seeks to avoid abandonment by its major power protector and entrapment when it’s pressured into making commitments it would rather avoid. Three challenges will accentuate the alliance dilemma for Australia over the coming decade.

Alliance burden sharing

America’s military spending is projected to be slashed by at least half a trillion dollars in the next ten years. The consequences for US allies could be profound. No state today has the potential to seriously rival the US as a military power, and that’s unlikely to alter for some time. But China will continue to make rapid inroads into US military ascendancy in Asia, despite President Obama’s intriguing reassurance that ‘reductions in US defence spending will not come at the expense of the Asia Pacific’. China’s ability to impose serious costs on the US in littoral zone conflicts is exemplified by Beijing’s major investment in asymmetric warfare technologies designed to deter US intervention in specific scenarios. Of concern to America’s Asian allies must be the fact that China’s area denial and anti-access capabilities have improved during a period when US defence expenditure was not declining. Read more

Australia still might face the China choice

5 April 2013

Peter Jennings’ recent op-ed in The Australian (PDF) recognises some of the pressing issues confronting Australian strategists, but fails to identify an underlying cause. Two of the issues he addresses discretely—divergent Australian and American views of Asia and a current lack of Australian Government enthusiasm for the alliance—are actually underpinned by an issue he dismisses.

Peter dismisses the prospect that Australia might have to choose between the US and China, but it’s this possibility which is driving, in part, our determination to see developments in Asia with a ‘relentlessly glass half full perspective’. It’s also probably responsible for a ‘perceived cooling of Australian support for enhanced co-operation’ with the US. Read more

Going to war: Australia’s traditions and conventions (part II)

4 April 2013

The Australian public service has two modes for offering its famed frank and fearless advice to ministers. One method is ‘stand ready’. The much rarer, high risk approach is ‘cop this’.

In stand ready mode, senior mandarins wait to be asked to offer advice on dangerous or controversial topics. Thus, it is a matter of standing, being ready, but not necessarily doing anything. For public servants, the stand ready position leans heavily towards the servant side of the job title.

When a public servant goes ‘cop this, Minister, ready or not’, he or she is emphasising the public dimension of the role rather than the servant side. The risk in offering an unpalatable and unwelcome message is that the messenger ends in quite a mess. Even so, the Australian public service at its highest levels has a proud tradition of being able to get ministers to cop it at key moments. Read more

A strategy-free vantage point

4 April 2013

The March 2013 edition of Quadrant magazine features an essay I wrote examining defence policy during the Rudd and Gillard governments.

The essay will form a chapter in a book to be published this month by Connor Court, entitled State of the Nation: Aspects of Australian Public Policy.

The headline chosen by Quadrant was ‘The Terminal Decline of Australia’s Defence’. It is a catchy headline and I use those words in the article. I explain that we should consider that a defence force is in terminal decline ‘… where its capabilities are at, or will soon be at, a state from which they will not be able to be revived in any reasonable period of time’.

The title that I suggested was ‘A Strategy Free Vantage Point’, implying that those that are determining what passes for defence policy in Australia are overseeing that policy from a position devoid of anything that passes for strategy.

Day after day in the media and in blogs, we debate the merits of 6, 12 or 24 subs, 59, 70, 100 or even 200 joint strike fighters and a fourth air warfare destroyer, and we wrap ourselves around our various axles as we define and redefine what a maritime strategy really is. It was almost with joy that I welcomed the tenth anniversary of the Iraq invasion! Read more

Drones and the kill-decision-making loop

4 April 2013

Globally, state use of armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV aka ‘drone’) technology has gone ahead in leaps and bounds in recent years as they have provided significant advantages in counter-terrorism and warfare. The US, for example, has clearly established itself as the most prolific user of drone technology with such success against al Qaeda that the group recently developed a manual on how to avoid drone strikes. At the 2013 Australian International Airshow, Minister for Defence Stephen Smith indicated that armed UAVs might have a role in the ADF in the future and has called for a debate. He’s right in identifying the need for this conversation to take place, especially given that it is such a rapidly evolving and highly utilised global technology. An important part of any debate should be about what comes next: autonomous killer drones.

By some estimates, fully autonomous systems might be as close as five years from now. This will depend upon the pace of innovation, societal acceptance and the security requirements of states, but also on how quickly we progress toward what computer scientists call singularity— the point when the power of computers exceeds the power of human brains.

When it comes to more complex autonomous systems such as drones, a key question becomes, how ‘autonomous’ do we want them, especially when it concerns targeting with lethal force? The United States has already begun a debate about autonomous lethal systems. Having the Australian debate now will enable us to shape the future development of drone technology and avoid some of the potential mistakes that could be made. Read more

Of Australian strategy and submarine design

3 April 2013

The decision to acquire 12 new submarines was one of the main outcomes from the 2009 White Paper. Other than to build the new vessels in South Australia, few aspects of the Future Submarine program have been decided. Three main options remain under consideration: a completely new, bespoke design, an ‘evolved’ Collins class, and a MOTS (modified off the shelf) European boat that is cheaper, but also less capable in terms of range, endurance, sensors and combat system than the other alternatives.

What these new boats are supposed to do has received far less attention in the debate. Andrew Davies, Ben Schreer and Peter Briggs are to be commended for drawing attention to the link between the submarine options under consideration, and the role, if any, that Australia intends to play in the emerging US posture in Asia. Andrew and Ben imply that Australia’s strategic focus on northeast versus Southeast Asia will have direct implications for the choice of design. That seems intuitive if the distance between Australian ports and those two areas is the main criterion. The question, however, is whether this intuition is correct. A definitive answer to this question is beyond what can be achieved in a blog post (and beyond my expertise), but it’s nonetheless useful to examine this assumption in greater detail. Read more

Security challenges in the Asia-Pacific: a US perspective

3 April 2013

This is a shortened version of a longer paper presented to the Alliance 21 meeting in Washington. Abridgment courtesy of Natalie Sambhi.

The United States is prioritising a comprehensive engagement of the Asia-Pacific region. Whether this is called ‘rebalancing’ or not, the US requires growing trade, active but effective diplomacy, and sufficient military investment and presence to promote and preserve a peaceful and prosperous region. However, as I see it, the Asia-Pacific region is beset with at least three somewhat intertwined and hard security challenges: avoiding conflict with an authoritarian North Korea, growing tensions in the East and South China Seas, and managing a more assertive and rising China. While governments have to be concerned with far more than these security challenges, they pose some of the starkest threats to the dynamism of the Asia-Pacific region.

Focusing on China as the starkest long-term geostrategic challenge, many analysts in the US, Australia and the Asia-Pacific region might be quick to dismiss the threat posed by North Korea. But to do so would be a mistake. While conflict on the Korean Peninsula is still likely to be deterred, war is possible. Especially in the wake of recent provocations including the successful Unha-3 rocket and third nuclear tests, there’s no substitute for further strengthening deterrence and defence. Counter-provocation strategies need further attention and must be exercised to ensure better readiness. Read more

Culture matters for the ADF

3 April 2013

Against the backdrop of the recent culture debates within the Australian Defence Force (ADF), the Australian Army Journal recently sought submissions for an upcoming ‘special culture edition’. The decision to focus an entire edition of the journal on cultural issues is not only timely; it is welcome for a variety of reasons.

The culture edition should take a significant step towards addressing the dearth of research on a number of military and culture related topics in the Australian context. In terms of my own area of interest—cross cultural awareness training—the comparatively large volume of material being produced by American academics and military personnel on this topic carries with it a raft of useful lessons for Australia. But as previously recognised (PDF) within the Australian Army Journal, Australia must develop approaches to cross cultural awareness that are appropriate to our own circumstances and are based on deep reflection on our own experiences. Apart from the works of David Kilcullen and a handful of others, few Australian produced reports devote more than a few paragraphs to the discussion of cross cultural awareness. Nevertheless, most recognise its value as a capability that is integral to Australia’s conflict and HADR operations overseas. Read more