Special Report Issue 28 – Here to help: Strengthening the Defence role in Australian disaster management

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This Special Report argues that it’s time for Defence to more fully incorporate domestic disaster assistance tasks as part of its core business.

Defence is likely to be used more frequently in the future to assist in domestic disaster management. There will be larger and more frequent extreme weather events due to climate change; increased vulnerability of the growing populations in coastal developments and in bushfire-prone areas; continual reduction per capita in the number of volunteers and emergency services personnel; and growing community and political expectations to use military resources to support whole-of-government counter-disaster efforts.

To prepare for the increased demand on, and expectations for the use of, Defence in disaster management there are three actions that should be taken:

  • Australian Government should clarify that Australian disaster assistance is an ADF priority task. Elevating domestic disaster assistance into a core Defence activity will ensure that this priority flows through the Australian Defence organisation.
  • Defence should undertake a fundamental review of its domestic disaster assistance role with the goal of maximising its contribution to Australian disaster management. This is likely to involve modifying existing organisations, policies and procedures, logistics and training.
  • Defence and civil counter-disaster organisations should work together to facilitate the transfer of capability development, research and development and other skills to accelerate the development of the states and territories next-generation disaster management systems.

The QDR: a future of hybrid warfare?

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The latest formal statement of US defence policy, the QDR (Quadrennial Defense Review), plays down sweeping ambition in order to remain focused on the tasks immediately at hand—Iraq and above all, Afghanistan.  And it sees a future of ‘hybrid’ warfare, likely to involve a diversity of actors and to blur the traditional distinction between inter-state conflict and protracted counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency operations.  It suggests the US will be looking for more from its allies, including Australia.

A delicate issue: Asia’s nuclear future

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The world stands on the cusp of a new era in nuclear relations—one in which Asia is likely to become the dominant influence on global nuclear arrangements. The old, bilateral nuclear symmetry of the Cold War is giving way to new multiplayer, asymmetric nuclear relationships. And it is doing so at a time when power balances are shifting across Asia, when pressures for proliferation are returning to the regional agenda, and when non-state actors are an increasingly worrying part of the Asian nuclear equation.

The paper, authored by Rod Lyon, argues that Australia’s own policy options will be profoundly shaped by how Asia’s nuclear future unfolds. It looks at how Australia can assist with redesigning nuclear order in a cooperative Asia but notes a darker, more competitive Asian nuclear future would confront Australian policymakers with difficult choices, of hedging rather than ordering.

The report concludes that Australian strategic policy should retain the flexibility to accommodate a range of possible Asian nuclear futures, striking a balance between its ordering and hedging strategies during a possible turbulent era in regional security.

Understanding the al-Shabaab networks

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The Australian Government on 21 August 2009 officially listed the al-Shabaab group as a terrorist organisation.

This paper examines the danger posed by the Somali-based group, and concludes that we are likely to see an increase in Westernised Muslims appearing on the battlefield in Somalia. Eventually we will see some of these men come home. It would not be surprising if there was an increase in localised targeting by these people of Western interests.

Special Report Issue 24 – Hardening Australia: Climate change and national disaster resilience

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This Special Report, authored by Athol Yates and Anthony Bergin, warns that as a result of climate change, disasters are likely to become larger, more complex, occur simultaneously and in regions that have either not experienced the natural hazard previously or at the same intensity or frequency.

The report recommends that emergency services will need to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on the risks they are responsible for. COAG should develop a National Partnership Agreement on Disaster Resilience with the states that would provide $150 million to reward the states’ measurable improvement in disaster outcomes.

We need to encourage climate-hardening of critical infrastructure and a new body, the Australian Land Use Planning Taskforce, should be established to develop a national approach to driving climate change adaptation considerations into land use strategies and decisions.
 
The report finds that buildings continue to be produced that will not resist hazards predicted over coming decades, making reforming the Building Code of Australia more urgent.

The human tide: An Australian perspective on demographics and security

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This report, authored by Mark Thomson, looks at demographics and security from an Australian perspective.The economic and demographic transition of countries from poverty to prosperity has been a driving force of history over the past two centuries, and is set to remain so for the remainder of the century. In the decades ahead, development and demographics will drive two profound changes in Australia’s strategic environment.

First, emerging countries like China and India will increasingly become major economic powers. The result will be a steady shift of economic power from the West to the East and from the rich to the poor.

Second, although economic growth will deliver improved standards of living to most of the world’s inhabitants, some vulnerable countries will be left behind as their populations grow. Critically for Australia, East Timor and parts of Melanesia are among those countries with poor prospects in this regard.

While Australia has limited scope to influence the seismic geopolitical shifts wrought by the rise of new powers, we can help mitigate the risks associated with demographics in developing countries.

The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2009-2010

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This report, prepared by Mark Thomson, gives interested readers greater access to the complex workings of the Defence Budget and promotes informed debate on Defence budget issues.

The Obama administration and US strategic policy

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This Policy Analysis, authored by Rod Lyon and Kellie Kayser, assesses how much change we are seeing in US strategic policy under the new administration in Washington.

President Obama has already begun a campaign to ‘renew’ American global leadership after the Bush years. He has been explicit in marking out his strategic style from Bush’s, emphasising that his presidency will be characterised by partnerships, diplomacy and engagement. But actual US strategic priorities have changed little: the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan remain at the centre of US interest—alongside a rapidly-escalating global economic crisis.

Many of the issues of concern to Obama are also of concern to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, although Canberra probably places a higher priority on Asian security concerns. The forthcoming meeting between the two leaders in Washington provides an opportunity to explore just how much ‘resetting’ of the relationship will occur on Obama’s watch.

The 4th Australia and Japan 1.5 Track Security Dialogue, 10-11 December 2007, Canberra. Proceedings.

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The 1.5 Track Security Dialogue is an initiative of ASPI and the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA). It aims to assist the two governments to address and explore, through frank and sustained exchanges, their respective policy approaches and options on global, regional and local security issues.

Participants at this Dialogue, hosted by ASPI with the assistance of the Australian Department of Defence and the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, engaged in discussions with a view to strengthening bilateral security and defence relations in support of their common interests.

Australian Defence Almanac 2008-2009

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The Almanac is a unique publication that brings together a wealth of information across the full-range of Defence activity in a single, easy-to-use reference source.

It is an up-to-date, fact-filled resource that places otherwise difficult to find Defence information at the reader’s fingertips and presents it in a transparent, highly readable form.

Chapters cover:

  • Defence and strategy looking at the constitutional and legislative basis for Defence, the military justice system, Australian strategic policy and Australia’s place in the world.
  • Australian Defence Force which covers ADF command arrangements, order of battle, equipment, arms and weapons, ordnance, platform activity levels, comparative military strength, Defence facilities, establishments and bases.
  • Department of Defence which looks at the organisation, outcomes and ouputs and management information systems.
  • People which covers personnel issues such as personnel numbers, ranks, recruiting activity, enlistments, Reserve, separations and salaries.
  • Money provides Defence outlays, comparative regional defence spending, comparative Commonwealth spending, top 30 Defence projects and top 30 Defence contractors.
  • Australia and the world considers significant treaties, conventions and agreements, Australian membership of intergovernmental bodies and international organisations.
  • Counter-terrorism covers counter-terrorism arrangements, governance structures for counter-terrorism, national terrorist situation, budget appropriations for agencies, agencies’ CT roles, terrorist organisations in Australia and terrorist incidents.