Agenda for Change 2016: Strategic choices for the next government

/in , , , , ,

The defence of Australia’s interests is a core business of federal governments. Regardless of who wins the election on July 2, the incoming government will have to grapple with a wide range of security issues. This report provides a range of perspectives on selected defence and national security issues, as well as a number of policy recommendations.

Contributors include Kim Beazley, Peter Jennings, Graeme Dobell, Shiro Armstrong, Andrew Davies, Tobias Feakin, Malcolm Davis, Rod Lyon, Mark Thomson, Jacinta Carroll, Paul Barnes, John Coyne, David Connery, Anthony Bergin, Lisa Sharland, Christopher Cowan, James Mugg, Simon Norton, Cesar Alvarez, Jessica Woodall, Zoe Hawkins, Liam Nevill, Dione Hodgson, David Lang, Amelia Long and Lachlan Wilson.

ASPI produced a similar brief before the 2013 election. There are some enduring challenges, such as cybersecurity, terrorism and an uncertain global economic outlook. Natural disasters are a constant feature of life on the Pacific and Indian Ocean rim.

But there are also challenges that didn’t seem so acute only three years ago such as recent events in the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, and ISIS as a military threat and an exporter of global terrorism.

The incumbent for the next term of government will have to deal with these issues.

Launch Video

Cyberspace and armed forces: the rationale for offensive cyber capabilities

/in , ,

Aserious approach to military modernisation requires countries to equip, train, and organise cyberforces for what has become an essential component of national defence and deterrence. A force without adequate cyber capabilities is more dangerous to itself than to its opponents. As nations move forward in rethinking the role and nature of their military forces, and as they study the problems of organisation, doctrine and use of cyber operations, they need to:

  • develop the full range of military cyber capabilities with both offensive and defensive application
  • create a centralised command structure for those capabilities, with clear requirements for political-level approval for action
  • embed those capabilities in doctrine and a legal framework based on international law.

Bolstering national disaster resilience: what can be done?

/in ,

This report outlines the goals of ASPI’s Risk and Resilience Program. It introduces several broad areas to be covered and measures to strengthen mitigation, response and recovery options spanning the community, state and federal spheres. The program will contribute to our long-term thinking on how best to prepare for and recover from disasters.

Peak Japan and its implications for regional security

/in ,

This paper examines Japanese security policy under Abe, identifies the constants and constraints that frame that policy, and attempts to project where Japan will go in the near-term future.

Its conclusion may unnerve many: structural constraints in the Japanese economy, self-imposed limits deriving from Japanese national identity and an increasingly beleaguered polity will narrow Japanese options.

The chief task of friends and allies of Japan, including Australia, will be to engage Tokyo and ensure that there’s a place for Japan in regional security policy.

Net worth: Australia’s regional fisheries engagement

/in ,

This paper argues there’s a need for a whole-of-government approach to Australia’s external fisheries policy that recognises clear linkages between fisheries and foreign, trade, and strategic policy.

Extending and complementing current stakeholder engagement practices is the key to this approach. Regional fishery management organisations (RFMOs) and arrangements allow Australia to promote a strong approach on sustainable and responsible fishing practices and develop regional instruments to protect our fish stocks and wider regional interests.

Time to start worrying again? Cross-strait stability after the 2016 Taiwanese elections

/in ,

The study argues that the Taiwan Strait will remain dangerous and that Canberra needs to pay closer attention to the evolving cross-strait situation. Of crucial importance is the question of whether Australia should support its US ally in a future Taiwan contingency.

The report calls for a comprehensive dialogue between Canberra and Washington to avoid a future ‘expectation gap’ on the Taiwan issue. As well, Australia should acknowledge Taiwan’s potentially constructive role in regional maritime territorial disputes. Finally, Canberra should proactively take steps to enhance Taiwan’s regional political and economic integration as a means to contribute to long-term cross-strait stability.

Revising the UN Peacekeeping Mandate in South Sudan: Maintaining Focus on the Protection of Civilians

/in ,

Civil war has raged in South Sudan for two years. Horrific atrocities continue to be committed against the civilian population by both primary parties to the conflict as the United Nations mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has struggled to protect civilians within and beyond its protection of civilians (POC) sites.

This report by the Stimson Center and the Australian Strategic Policy Institute examines the challenges UNMISS has faced in its efforts to protect civilians from physical violence despite the priority and focus of the revised mandate that was adopted following the outbreak of civil war in December 2013.

This report offers recommendations for stakeholders to consider as part of the upcoming mandate review that will take place in December 2015, as well as lessons for future reviews.

Chinese investment in the Port of Darwin: A strategic risk for Australia?

/in ,

Few strategic issues have galvanised public attention in Australia as the decision by the Northern Territory Government to lease key facilities in the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company, Landbridge. This Strategic Insights brings together items published on our blog The Strategist as well as articles by ASPI staff published in other media outlets such as The Australian and The Australian Financial Review. The authors are Paul Barnes, Sam Bateman, Allan Behm, Phoebe Benich, Anthony Bergin, Patrick Cronin, Neil James, Peter Jennings, Geoff Wade, and Feng Zhang. Our aim is to bring this material into an accessible format, in part, to assist the deliberations of the Senate Economic References Committee which, over January and February 2016, is conducting an inquiry into the foreign investment review framework including with reference to the Port of Darwin lease.

The Port of Darwin lease highlights an urgent need to review how Australia takes account of its national security interests in making decisions about foreign investment.

Securing the Australian frontier: an agenda for border security policy

/in ,

This report explores the key border security concepts and emergent policy challenges that will impact on Australia’s border security policy.

Effective border security allows for the seamless legitimate movement of people and goods across Australia’s borders, which is critical to enhancing trade, travel and migration. The provision of border security involves far more than creating a capability focused solely on keeping our borders secure from potential terrorists, irregular migrants and illicit contraband.

Border security policy deals with a unique operating space, in which extraordinary measures (extraordinary in character, amount, extent or degree) are often needed to provide a sense of security at the same time as creating the sense of normalcy that will allow economic interactions to flourish.

Cyber maturity in the Asia-Pacific Region 2015

/in ,

The second edition of the International Cyber Policy Centre’s annual Cyber Maturity in the Asia Pacific is the culmination of 12 months research and analysis delving into the cyber maturity of 20 countries within our region. It is a usable, quick-reference resource for those in government, business, academia, and the wider cyber community who are looking to make considered, evidence-based cyber policy judgements in the Asia-Pacific. It provides a depth of information and analysis that  builds a deeper understanding of regional countries’ whole of nation approach to cyber policy, crime, and security issues, and identifies potential opportunities for engagement. 

This years’ maturity metric contains five new countries and integrates a stand-alone assessment category on cybercrime enforcement. This new cybercrime category joins continuing assessments of whole-of-government policy and legislative structures, military organisation, international engagement and CERT team maturity in addition to business and digital economic strength and levels of cyber social awareness. This information is distilled into an accessible format, using metrics to provide a snapshot by which government, business, and the public alike can garner an understanding of the cyber profile of regional actors.