Iraq security strategy: a complex challenge

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Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 13/2005

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication, which examines the strategic objectives in the rebuilding of Iraqi security forces and security institutions.

Authored by Peter Khalil, the ASPI Strategic Insight identifies future security challenges that must be overcome to ensure the implementation of a successful security strategy in the months ahead.

“To be successful, the Coalition’s Iraq strategy must make progress on the political transition, security and economic reconstruction fronts.” Khalil says.

“A critical part of is strategy is the training of the Iraqi security forces and the capacity building of the security institutions that support them.”

Khalil states that: “During the next twelve months, Iraq’s greatest challenge and the key to its future as an independent, capable state with effective governing structures will be to create an atmosphere of stability and security in the country.”

The ASPI Strategic Insight assesses:

” The effectiveness of Iraqi security arrangements from May 2003 to January 2005
” The dissolution of the old Iraqi army and the rebuilding of the new Iraqi Armed Forces (IAF)
” Australia’s role in the training of the new Iraqi Army
” Changing Iraqi security arrangements throughout 2005 and future security challenges.

Peter Khalil, an Australian, worked as Director for National Security Policy with the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad from August 2003 til May 2004. He has also spent time working at both DFAT and the Department of Defence. He is now a visiting fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC. He has published op-ed pieces recently in the New York Times and the Australian on Iraq issues.

Time for a new defence white paper

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Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 12/2005

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication calling on the government to develop a new defence white paper.

Authored by ASPI’s Acting Director, Peter Jennings, the ASPI Strategic Insight sets out the reasons why a new defence policy statement is increasingly needed.

“The government will have to make a number of critical defence policy decisions over the next twelve to twenty-four months” Jennings argues.

“These include decisions about our strategic posture, major military capability acquisitions and future plans for defence spending and efficiency measures.”

Jennings said: “These choices could be made in isolation, but the best way to arrive at the right policy outcomes would be via a disciplined and systematic review of our defence policy settings.”

The ASPI Strategic Insight outlines how the government might handle the following vital questions:

” What has really changed in Australia’s strategic outlook as a result of 9/11?

” How does defence policy fit into Australia’s emerging national security strategy?

” What is the best role for the ADF in our counter-terrorism strategies?

” What is the best role for the ADF in promoting stability in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific?

” Is ‘structuring for war and adapting for peace’ still the best approach?

” How far should we adopt network centric warfare?

” What ‘niche forces’ should we maintain for coalition operations?

” Should the Government continue real growth in Defence spending after 2011?

Strengthening Our Neighbour: Australia and the future of Papua New Guinea

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has today released its report, Strengthening Our Neighbour: Australia and the future of Papua New Guinea.

Our nearest neighbour, Papua New Guinea (PNG) faces a host of significant challenges that go to the heart of its long term viability as a functioning state. While there is no acute crisis, many long-term trends are negative. A vicious cycle links failing service delivery, falling revenues and national fragmentation with increasing fragility of government institutions, poor economic performance and a lack legitimacy of the government in the eyes of the people. Underlying all of PNG’s problems are pervasive and systemic weaknesses in the capacity of the PNG state to provide effective government.

PNG’s deterioration matters to Australia for a host of compelling reasons, from high strategic and transnational security concerns through to altruistic impulses born of history, geography and common humanity.

Despite the considerable money and technical skills Australia has invested in PNG over the thirty years since its independence, little we have done has seemed to work. The recent Enhanced Cooperation Program (ECP), under which around 300 Australian police and public servants will help to address PNG’s challenges, is a step in the right direction, but it is too limited in scope to make much impact on the breadth and depth of PNG’s challenges.

This report sets out a policy approach which would enable Australia to play a more active part in helping to strengthen PNG. Such a program of deeper engagement would need to cover the following four elements:

Strengthen the relationship. Set a new direction for the relationship between Australia and PNG, and increase support for cultural, student and academic exchanges and scholarships.

Strengthen the state. Expand and improve programs to help PNG strengthen the state and its institutions, including support for strengthening PNG’s central agencies and for reforms to the handling of public money.

Strengthen the economy. Implement measures designed to strengthen PNG’s economy, including supporting regulatory reform, active support for the private sector, and the possibility of granting Papua New Guineans access to Australia’s labour market. 

Strengthen the nation. Help to build a stronger sense of nationhood in PNG, including support for the media and sport. The report was prepared by Hugh White and Elsina Wainwright, ASPI Strategy and International Program Director, with contributors Ken Baxter, Rowan Callick and Andrea Cole, and PNG perspectives from Sir Mekere Morauta and Charles Lepani.

Scoping Studies – New thinking on security

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Launch of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI’s) Strategy report Scoping Studies: New thinking on security

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has today released its report, Scoping Studies: New thinking on security, as a major new contribution to policy thinking on national security.

Scoping Studies presents eleven views from a diverse selection of writers, each presenting their own list of the critical decisions the Government must make to keep Australia secure.

ASPI intends that Scoping Studies should contribute to the defence and national security agenda for this new term of government.

ASPI’s Acting Director, Peter Jennings, says “We gave our contributors the maximum flexibility so they could present their personal views about Australia’s key security challenges.”

“But a number of common themes emerged. Many of our authors called for Australia to develop a stronger national security approach. This would involve more closely coordinating Defence and other areas of government like aid, policing, education links and diplomacy to achieve security objectives.”

“There was also a close focus on the US alliance” Jennings said. “Our authors agree that the alliance is important to Asia-Pacific stability, but there is a wide range of views about how closely Australian policy should be linked to Washington.”

There are also diverse contributions on, among other topics:

  • How Australia should contribute to a stronger ‘human security’ agenda;
  • The need for a new Defence White Paper – and what it should say.
  • The challenge of developing a new defence industry policy.

Scoping Studies includes contributions from some of Australia’s leading thinkers on defence and security. Our eleven authors include academics, former senior military figures, and individuals with journalistic, industry and public service backgrounds.

“ASPI is delighted to release Scoping Studies as the latest issue in our Strategy series” Jennings, said.

“We hope these papers will help to invigorate a strong public debate on Australia’s increasingly demanding policy challenges in defence and security.”

ASPI Defence Almanac Launch

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Launch of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Australian Defence Almanac 2004-05

Mr Ric Smith, AO PSM, Secretary of the Department of Defence and ASPI Council member, launched the inaugural ASPI Australian Defence Almanac on Thursday, 30 September 2004. Attending the function were representatives from major defence industry corporations and senior Government officials.

Mr Smith congratulated ASPI on the choice of the subject of the Australian Defence Almanac and the timing of it release. He said, “one of ASPI’s critical roles is to support informed public debate about Defence and security issues. The new Almanac provides a baseline for that debate”.

Mr Smith said, “not only does the Almanac set out the basic numbers of Defence – its people, money and facilities – it also provides a history of the organisation and enumerates operations as far as 1947. It includes a useful list of treaties, conventions and agreements to which Australia is a party, and the international inter-governmental bodies that we’re members of. There is also a chapter on terrorism, which includes a description of our counter-terrorism arrangements”.

Mr Smith concluded, “the Almanac is a first rate contribution to an understanding of Australian Defence and security issues; a common set of facts for all of us to work from, and from which the debate can proceed”.

The ASPI Australian Defence Almanac 2004-2005 is of great value to anyone who wants information on the full range of Australian Defence activity. The Almanac is available for purchase on the ASPI website: http://www.aspi.org.au or by contacting ASPI on (02) 6270 5100.

Cleared for immediate release: Friday, 1 October 2004
Media Comment: Mr Raspal Khosa on (02) 6270 5103 (office) or 0412 246872 (mobile)

Australia-India Reengagement: Common Security Concerns, Converging Strategic Horizons, Complementary Force Structures

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Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 11/2004

ASPI today released its latest Strategic Insight Australia-India Reengagement: Common Security Concerns, Converging Strategic Horizons, Complementary Force Structures.

Written by Ms Jenelle Bonnor and Professor Varun Sahni, the co-convenors of the Australia-India Security Roundtable, the paper argues that Australia and India have covered a considerable distance since bilateral defence and security relations were reestablished in 2000 after a two-and-a-half-year hiatus. There is now a well-established habit of dialogue between the two governments, particularly on strategic issues. This dialogue has built the foundation for a more substantial and predictable security relationship.

But for security relations to become more concrete, there is a need to move beyond discussions, important though they are, and to focus on increasing the number of bilateral exchanges and other forms of practical cooperation.

Australia and India share common security concerns, particularly the threat of terrorism. Their respective strategic horizons, in the eastern Indian Ocean and beyond, are converging. And their military establishments-though differing considerably in size and shape, are complementary: they have much to learn from the other, both in areas where they share expertise as well as in areas of dissimilarity. There is therefore significant scope for closer strategic and security cooperation between Australia and India.

The report is available on our web site http://www.aspi.org.au or can be obtained by contacting ASPI on (02) 6270 5100.

UNDERSTANDING TERRORISM: 20 BASIC FACTS

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Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 10/2004

ASPI today released its latest Strategic Insight: Understanding Terrorism: 20 basic facts by ASPI Program Director, Aldo Borgu.

Terrorism is a major contemporary security problem and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But as we approach the third anniversary of the attacks of September 11 and despite the fact that modern terrorism is a phenomenon that policy makers have been dealing with for at least 40 years, the concept of terrorism itself still seems little understood and much misrepresented.

In the paper Aldo Borgu presents twenty basic facts about the nature of terrorism, the threat to Australia and some of the required policy responses. These facts are in no particular order, many are interconnected, and most might seem blatantly obvious, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t worth restating and remembering from time to time. They include the following:

Terrorism, even in its contemporary form, is not a new phenomenon

Terrorists target us as much for what we do as who we are

Terrorism has more sophisticated aims than just killing people

The global war on terror does not compare to the Cold War

The United States has made Iraq the front line in their war on terror

In the short to medium-term the terrorist threat to Australia is more likely to originate overseas

Terrorism can’t be met primarily or even predominantly through military force

We currently lack decent measures of success against terrorism

The only way to combat terrorism is with a comprehensive long-term grand strategy.

The tragic events in Jakarta and Beslan in the past week only further confirm any number of these facts.

Attitude Matters: Public opinion in Australia towards defence and security

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Release of the ASPI’s Strategy report on public opinion in Australia towards defence and security.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released its report Attitude Matters: Public Opinion in Australia towards defence and security which provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date survey of Australian public opinion on defence and security issues.

Attitude Matters was written by Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University, with additional contributions by Peter Jennings and Brendan McRandle of ASPI. Prof McAllister is one of Australia’s leading academic expert on public opinion. He has charted community views on defence and security policy through the Australian Electoral Survey (AES)-a major poll of Australians coinciding with each general election from as far back as the late 1960s through to the last federal election in 2001. The paper also draws on more recent polling on Iraq, the US alliance and other key security issues.

McAllister writes that, “the end of the Cold War, the 11 September and Bali attacks, and events in the Middle East, have all combined to undermine many of the certainties which informed the public’s long-standing views on defence and national security during the latter half of the twentieth century. There is now greater volatility in public opinion on defence issues than at any time in the recent past.”

“As defence and security enter mainstream political debate, the public’s awareness of the policy options is likely to increase. As a result, the traditional policy freedom that successive governments have enjoyed in the area is likely to diminish.”

“The relationship between policy-making and public opinion is complex and often the subject of heated debate. Policy decision-makers cannot afford to be led by opinion polls. Indeed at times our political leaders must try to change public opinion rather than follow it. Equally though, governments ignore public opinion at their peril. Policies that get too far out of step with what the community is broadly prepared to support will not survive in the long-term”, writes Peter Jennings, Director of Programs at ASPI.

“This publication provides some fascinating insights and tells us a great deal about how Australians have responded to local and world events. It contains important information for policy makers and commentators” said Brendan McRandle, Outreach Program Director at ASPI. “Of particular interest is the way increasing numbers of Australians have identified Indonesia as a security threat, yet over the same period, the public has become much less worried by China”. Professor McAllister’s work shows that, “To all intents and purposes, Indonesia has replaced China as the focus of the public’s threat assessment.”

Is the Joint Strike Fighter good enough?

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Release of the ASPI’s Strategic Insight no. 9/2004 on Australia’s air combat capability

ASPI today released its latest Strategic Insight: Is the JSF good enough? Can Australia’s air combat requirements be met by the JSF, or do we need the F/A-22? This paper looks at the job to be done by the RAAF’s air combat forces and the systems, tactics and networks required to maintain a capability edge. A comparison is made between the JSF and the F/A-22 aircraft.

The author of the paper is Air Marshal Angus Houston, Chief of Air Force. ASPI is pleased to provide the RAAF with an opportunity to offer the most detailed explanation yet on the case for the Joint Strike Fighter.

Key points from the paper include:

“Australia’s air combat capability is on the threshold of a new era as the F-111 and F/A-18 approach the end of their service lives.”

“The strength of our future air combat capability-and our largest defence project ever-is a matter of strategic importance.”

“We will maintain our capability edge by developing a network-centric air combat system.”

“The JSF will be a true fifth generation, stealthy, multi-role, single-seat, single-engine, fighter aircraft.”

“The JSF is intended to set new benchmarks in affordability, availability and supportability for a high-performance stealth aircraft.”

Air Marshal Houston concludes by saying; “The JSF is the more cost effective option for us.”

The paper reflects the views of Air Marshal Houston and does not necessarily represent the position of ASPI on any particular issue.

YOUR DEFENCE DOLLAR: THE 2004-05 DEFENCE BUDGET

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released its summary budget report Your Defence Dollar: The 2004-05 Defence Budget.

The report is a condensed version of the 2004 ASPI Budget Brief: The Cost of Defence that was released in May two weeks after the budget.

Accordingly, while The Cost of Defence contains an extensive and detailed analysis of the Defence budget, Your Defence Dollar is a more succinct and accessible document.

In releasing the publication, Dr Thomson said that:

“There is a surprisingly large amount of new money for national security and Defence, notwithstanding the emphasis given to Tax and Family in this year’s pre-election budget.”

“Specific measures for Defence include $816 million for logistics, $654 million for personnel, $300 million for estate upkeep and $132 million to maintain our deployment to Iraq until the middle of 2005.”

“But just like last year, there continues to be a slow shift of spending away from capital investment in future capability to spending on today’s personnel and operating costs.”

“This budget announced that around $2.2 billion of previously planned investment in new military equipment would be deferred from the first part of this decade to beyond 2007-08 because it has become increasingly clear that Defence simply cannot spend the money as quickly as first thought.”

“To improve the delivery of investment projects, there are major reforms under way in the Defence Materiel Organisation (DMO) whose job it is to acquire new equipment.

“This had better work. Later this decade, when the deferred investment funds reappear in the budget, DMO is going to really have its work cut out for it.” 

” Overall there have been visible improvements in Defence’s budget discipline, planning and reporting compared with a couple of years ago, nevertheless we think that more could be done to ensure that value for money is being delivered.”

“We’re into the central years of the 10-year White Paper funding period and, as yet, the Government has not decided what Defence funding will be past 2010. That’s one of the reasons why we called for a new White Paper in our 2004 Strategic Assessment.”