A new agenda for national security

Release of ASPI Special Report  

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a new Special Report on Australia’s national security. Defining national security priorities in the current international environment is a complicated task. National security concepts that focus on military threats and responses are no longer sufficient to deal with the range of security risks that Australia faces in this new environment.  This paper addresses four critical questions highlighting the key challenges for the Australian Government as it seeks to implement a national security agenda: 

  • What is the definition of national security?
  • Why do emerging security issues such as organised crime, pandemic diseases and climate change pose a national security risk?
  • How have other countries such as Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom approached national security planning?
  • What bureaucratic changes are necessary in Australia in order to deal with the contemporary security environment?

 In answering these questions, the paper puts forward a number of recommendations including the publication of an annual security risk assessment and the creation of a single national security budget to be administered by the new Office of National Security. Author Dr Carl Ungerer says ‘At its core, the concept of a national security policy requires governments to think about three interrelated questions; the trajectory of the international and domestic security environment and its implications for the modern democratic state; judgements about the likely probability and consequences of events across the emerging threat spectrum; and the range and combination of policy instruments needed to meet those risks today and into the future’.  

Australia’s security industry-the forgotten partner in national security

Release of ASPI Special Report Advancing Australian homeland security: Leveraging the Private Sector

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a new Special Report on the security industry and the role it could play in protecting Australia’s homeland security.   

The report finds that the integration of effective security across all sectors of Australia is being hindered by a general lack of mutual understanding and respect between those who define security requirements and services and those who provide these goods and services. 

The paper suggests five measures that would allow public and private sector customers access to a wider spectrum of advanced security capability and leverage leading edge security thinking from industry and the research community. 

First, governments should produce clear statements of capability to provide guidance as to the requirements, expectations and desired level of security. 

Second, in partnership with suppliers, governments should develop standards for security requirements for the guidance of security managers in the public and private sectors.  

Third, the federal government should facilitate impartial testing arrangements for emerging security technologies and oversee and assess the uptake of such technologies. 

Fourth, to allow the maximum number of customers access to all those potentially providing relevant technologies and services, a national customer group should be established that would bring together key Australian government agencies to develop and discuss broad capability requirements. 

And at the state level, security buyers and sellers could be assisted in business matching by the Industry Capability Network Limited, that assists businesses to maximise opportunities that arise from purchasing requirements from both the government and private sector.  

Dr Anthony Bergin, ASPI’s research director and co-author of the report, said ‘These measures would better integrate customers and sellers in our security market and enhance the ability of Australia to protect itself at all levels from all hazards.’ 

‘Our security industry is now a multi-billion dollar industry. Security spending will continue to expand, driven by risk perceptions of terrorism, the hosting of major events and the on-going need to protect critical infrastructure.’  

r

The South Pacific: a long-term challenge, say ASPI Reports

Release of ASPI Reports on the relationship between Australia and the Pacific Island Countries 
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released two new Special Reports on the relationship between Australia and the Pacific Island Countries, Australia and the South Pacific: Rising to the challenge and Engaging our neighbours: Towards a new relationship between Australia and the Pacific Islands. 

The publications were launched by The Hon Duncan Kerr SC MP, Parliamentary Secretary for Pacific Island Affairs at Parliament House.

The reports are the products of an eight-month project designed to find ways of improving the prospects for economic development and political stability in the region. The reports analyse the diverse challenges facing South Pacific island states and their impacts on regional security, as well as Australia’s role in the region, leading to recommendations for policy makers.

Australia and the South Pacific: Rising to the challenge, a research collection of seven distinct papers by leading experts, examines key issues in South Pacific security and Australia’s role in the region. It offers a range of suggestions that should be considered in the development of Australia’s regional strategy. 

ASPI convened a group of prominent Australian academics, researchers, business representatives and policy makers to develop a consensus view about Australia’s relationships with the Pacific Island Countries. ‘Engaging our neighbours: Towards a new relationship between Australia and the Pacific Islands’, is the report of this Independent Task Force.
The Pacific Islands will always matter strategically to Australia and it is important that we engage our regional neighbours over the long term, especially Melanesia.  ‘That’s a key message from these two reports’ says ASPI Executive Director Peter Abigail, who served as co-chair of the ASPI Pacific Task Force.  ‘Another is that while we cannot fully open our doors to our Pacific neighbours, we should open them more than we have in the past’.

Release of ASPI report on Australian interests in Timor-Leste

ASPI today released a new Strategic Insight publication ‘After the 2006 crisis: Australian interests in Timor-Leste.’  There have been many developments since the collapse of state authority in Timor-Leste.  The country has a new president and a new coalition government.  It is time to review how these developments might affect Australia’s long-term interests in Timor-Leste. The paper examines a range of Australian security interests in Timor-Leste, the factors contributing to the state collapse in 2006, and lessons for Australia in the handling of that crisis.  Key conclusions address overall measures that Timor-Leste will need to implement to prevent a re-occurrence of the crisis of 2006. ‘Advancing Australia’s interests in Timor-Leste is best achieved by cooperation with the government of that country.  The alternative of isolation and neglect, would undermine the financial and material commitment Australia has made to Timor-Leste’s security and development since 1999, and risk a return to crisis,’ says author Bob Lowry. He continues ‘It is to be hoped that the new arrangements can overcome the challenges of unsustainable population growth, extreme poverty, and the paucity of human resources and physical infrastructure to provide a more secure and relatively prosperous life for its people.  It would certainly be to Australia’s advantage if it succeeded.’  

Bob Lowry was an advisor on the development of national security structures and processes in Timor-Leste from mid-2002 until mid-2003.  He also evaluated the National Democratic Institute’s security sector reform projects in early 2005 and visited Timor-Leste in 2007 in the course of preparing the paper.

Power plays: Energy and Australia’s security. Release of ASPI Strategy Report

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released its latest report, Power plays: Energy and Australia’s security, which looks at the global demand for energy, its growth and the potential effects this has on Australia’s security.  The report examines Australia’s need to factor energy security into its foreign and defence policies, and develop a greater awareness of its dependence on fossil fuels. 

The report is authored by Professor Michael Wesley, Director of the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University University. 

The world is entering an era of steadily tightening energy markets.  The growth in demand of the United States, China and India for imported oil and gas, and the increasing dependence of the world on supplies from unstable regions means that the adequate supply of affordable energy will become increasingly a part of most states’ security calculations in the coming decades. 

Australia is a country with a modern economy that is dependent on fossil fuels.  Our economy has become so interdependent domestically and internationally that the disruption of energy supplies could lead to major economic damage.  

‘Canberra should also reconsider developing a more conventional oil stockpile, administered by the state, as an emergency response to supply disruptions or significant short-term tightening of the market’ says Professor Wesley. ‘..given Australia’s distances and reliance on road transport, major price fluctuations or supply shocks stand to hit it extremely hard.  Against these potential effects, the cost of developing a conventional stockpile, in addition to Australia’s surge capacity, may be worth considering’.  

Australia’s interests will be best served by maintaining and developing our position as a dependable energy supplier, by supporting the further integration of naval security mechanisms to protect energy shipping, and by promoting multilateral forums that include major energy consumers as well as producers.’s interests will be best served by maintaining and developing our position as a dependable energy supplier, by supporting the further integration of naval security mechanisms to protect energy shipping, and by promoting multilateral forums that include major energy consumers as well as producers. 

Middle East security after Iraq. Release of ASPI Special Report

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released a new Special Report, Middle East security after Iraq by Dr Leanne Piggott.  The report considers the future of Middle East security in the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.   

Dr Piggott argues that the countries of the Middle East are relative ‘new-comers’ to the international state system, and still in a process of state-formation.  Many states have made relatively little progress towards the development of good governance, a vibrant civil society, a market economy and an established middle class.  Overall, these factors have been a potent combination in breeding disaffection and a propensity for violence, which, in turn, has led many regimes to ‘over-develop’ their own coercive capacities to counter dissent. 

Events in Iraq have acted as a catalyst for many of the security challenges across the region. The conflict is generating a variety of spill-over effects for Iraq’s neighbours, including increasingly sophisticated transnational terrorism, substantial refugee flows, and aggravated sectarian tensions.  The Middle East has reached a particularly ‘unstable’ moment. 

Iran looks likely to feature prominently amongst the region’s key players, and its nuclear program makes it an issue of special concern. But the US, its regional partners, Russia, China and Turkey will also play important roles in future regional security.  

Dr Piggott believes Australia’s interests in the Middle East will be focused on the region’s two major exports: oil and jihadi-salafism terrorism.  Those interests pull us in different directions, the first towards stability in the Middle East, the second towards modernisation and political and economic reform.  Since change will only come slowly to the Middle East, Australia should  ‘…remain focused on preventing the spread of jihadi-salafism in our own region through close cooperation with neighbouring governments and their law enforcement agencies.’

‘Australia also has an interest in supporting US and international efforts to control the proliferation of WMD in the Middle East’ she said. ‘Australia has an obligation as a coalition partner to do all that is possible to ensure that Iraqi society does not collapse and degenerate into all out civil war’. 

Dr Leanne Piggott is the Deputy Director of the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney.

t

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 37/2007

ASPI today released a new Strategic Insight publication ‘Beyond belief: Islamism, radicalisation and the counter-terrorism response’ examining the strategies employed by Dutch, British and Singaporean agencies to counter radicalisation. It finds they blend a proactive, managerial policy that addresses issues of cohesion, identity and alienation and seeks to build more effective relationships with local Muslim communities at the provincial and metropolitan level, with a more determined prosecution of those promoting the ideology and practice of jihadism at the national level. While Australian security agencies don’t face a radicalised Islamism here that has developed to the capacity of its European equivalent, our homeland security will require the cooperation of Australia’s Islamic communities, which represent 1.7 % of the population. The paper suggests five measures that should be undertaken to prevent the type of violent extremism that has evolved in Europe and elsewhere from establishing itself in Australia. 

  • Crafting a long-term policy response to drain the ideological swamp in which radicalisation thrives, before it becomes fully established. A national counter-radicalisation strategy should be developed by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG).
  • Establish an Australian Muslim National Security Forum to develop strategies for tackling extremism that may lead to acts of terrorism while enhancing cooperation between Australia’s Islamic communities, state and federal Police.
  • Establish a Major Urban Counter-Terrorism Policing Program to assist state police improve their capacity to interdict violent extremism.
  • Australian Muslims must continue their efforts to make clear that they have no sympathy with groups promoting extremism.
  • An information hub on the research undertaken both here and overseas on counter – radicalisation.

  “To ensure the homegrown terrorist threat is both contained and over time negated, security, police and national leaders will need to reassure Australian Muslims that they can practice their faith freely and that they have a place within a pluralist Australian society. Integrated into wider social networks, they are less likely to experience the rejection and alienation that militant Islamists seek to exploit,” says report co-author Dr Anthony Bergin.

Whither the Bush doctrine?

ASPI today released a new Special Report publication titled ‘Whither the Bush doctrine?’ by Dr Rod Lyon.

With Congressional criticism of the war in Iraq mounting, and the Bush presidency now deep into its fourth quarter, speculation is increasing about the future trajectory of US strategic policy. Bush has been responsible for a major reformation in that policy post-September 11, articulating a doctrine that joined moral purpose to the direct use of military force.  The doctrine has been controversial and polarizing, both within the US and beyond.  Iraq has been seen as a key performance test of the doctrine’s effectiveness.  So what are the prospects for a major reorientation of US strategic policy, either post-2008 or more immediately?

Dr Lyon argues that the prospects for major reorientation are considerably lower than many might imagine.  For one thing, Bush’s presidency is far from the anomaly some claim it to be.  His doctrine sits comfortably within the broad ‘schools’ of US foreign policy, and Bush has continued, rather than transformed, the principal traits of US strategic behaviour.

‘We should expect the next president to be a maximalist, entirely ready to act unilaterally and preemptively during crises, and better at thinking about grand strategic objectives in sweeping value terms rather than in narrow tactical terms…That president could look even more like George W. Bush on the basis of the structure of threats in the current security environment: namely, weak-actor terrorist threats are still likely to pose the most immediate threat to the United States, post-2008,’says Dr Lyon.  

With realists already displacing neo-conservatives at the helm, US strategists in coming years will be attempting to increase their effectiveness against 21st-century threats.  A retreat to the static, reactive doctrines of the Cold War is unlikely. In most respects, the next US president will look much like the one we have now, Dr Lyon concludes.

A change in climate for the Australian Defence Force. Release of ASPI Special Report

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new Special Report, A Change in Climate for the Australian Defence Force by Anthony Bergin, Director of Research Programs for ASPI and Jacob Townsend, an ASPI Research Analyst.

The report outlines numerous ways that the issue and impacts of climate change may affect the Australian Defence Force (ADF). Climate change has implications for what the ADF does and how it operates.

Possibilities include:
– More border protection activities to police marine resources and cope with ‘climate refugees’.
– More disaster response missions at home and abroad.
– More counter-proliferation missions and responsibilities.
– Incorporation of climate change impacts into procurement decisions, such as by taking into account temperature increases and paying greater attention to greenhouse gas emissions.
– More intrusive energy and emissions reporting requirements.
– Implementing carbon offsets for ADF emissions. Defence may be able to earn substantial amounts from offsets on its sizeable land holdings.
– Interest in more disaster-specific or dual-use equipment.
– Complications for training on land and at sea.
– Participation in climate change information-gathering. 
– More energy research, including alternative energies, which may have added benefits of improving operational performance.
– Re-fitting bases for low emissions.
– Re-considering decisions on where to base assets.
– A shrinking recruitment pool and risks to personnel from changing disease distributions.
– Further use of simulators instead of ‘live’ training.
– Assessing the threats to bases — including ports — from climate change impacts and budgeting for their protection, reconstruction or re-location.
– More cooperative agreements and peacetime training with disaster relief NGOs and private contractors.

The report recommends that the Department of Defence consider establishing a small section to analyse and prepare the ADF for the risks and opportunities that climate change will present. The biggest challenge will be changing Defence behaviour and systems without reducing ADF operational capability.

Australia’s strategic fundamentals. Release of ASPI Special Report

ASPI has released a new publication: Australia’s strategic fundamentals authored by Dr Rod Lyon.

Over the last year the subject of Australian strategy has been the basis of considerable discussion.  That debate has been driven by a greater sense of uncertainty over what is—or ought to be—the ‘ordering principle’ of Australian strategic thinking.  In an era of quickening globalisation and heightened strategic complexity, geography is proving a less useful determinant of strategic priorities.  Rather, Australia has in recent years been strengthening its role as an ‘order-builder’, at both the global and regional levels. 

At the global level, our traditional fear — a revisionist great power — is not currently a central concern.  The principal challenge to global order now comes from small, radical adversaries attracted to asymmetrical warfare, and this is unlikely to change soon.  At this level, the dominant form of conflict will be one which pits states against non-state adversaries, and we will need to have available capacities for fighting exactly the sort of conflict that Western militaries haven’t been much good at fighting. 
 
At the regional level the principal challenge will more familiar, as a US-centred security order evolves to accommodate larger security roles for Japan, China and India.  At this level, our strategy must be to pull that evolving order towards stability, good governance and economic openness.  If we are to play a role in drawing the regional great powers into cooperative order-building, we need an ADF capable of partnering those countries in peacekeeping and stabilisation missions, disaster relief, and protection of sea-lanes, for example.  But we must also have some capacity to respond to malign shifts in the Asian security order if necessary.

Meanwhile, the reinvigoration of a metropolitan leadership role for Australia in the South Pacific demonstrates our commitment to order-building more locally.  We will certainly require our ADF and AFP to have the capacities to conduct protracted and substantial intervention missions around the South Pacific.  But we will need to use a whole-of-government approach to encourage sustainable economic development and liberal, democratic forms of good governance within the neighbourhood.

Securing Australia’s fundamental strategic interests in the 21st century will remain a complex and demanding task.