Here to help: Strengthening the Defence role in Australian disaster management

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a Special Report that argues that it’s time for Defence to more fully incorporate domestic disaster assistance tasks as part of its core business.

Defence is likely to be used more frequently in the future to assist in domestic disaster management. There will be larger and more frequent extreme weather events due to climate change; increased vulnerability of the growing populations in coastal developments and in bushfire-prone areas; continual reduction per capita in the number of volunteers and emergency services personnel; and growing community and political expectations to use military resources to support whole-of-government counter-disaster efforts.

To prepare for the increased demand on, and expectations for the use of, Defence in disaster management, three actions are required.

• the Australian Government should clarify that Australian disaster assistance is an ADF priority task. Elevating domestic disaster assistance into a core Defence activity will ensure that this priority flows through the Australian Defence organisation. 
 
• Defence should undertake a fundamental review of its domestic disaster assistance role with the goal of maximising its contribution to Australian disaster management. This is likely to involve modifying existing organisations, policies and procedures, logistics and training.

• Defence and civil counter-disaster organisations should work together to facilitate the transfer of capability development, research and development and other skills to accelerate the development of the states and territories next-generation disaster management systems.

The authors are Athol Yates, Executive Director, Australian Security Research Centre and Anthony Bergin, Director of Research Programs, Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Release of ASPI Strategy Report ‘A delicate issue: Asia’s nuclear future’

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a new report which explores the issue of nuclear weapons in Asia.

This Strategy, titled ‘A delicate issue: Asia’s nuclear future’, says the world stands on the cusp of a new era in nuclear relations—one in which Asia is likely to become the dominant influence on global nuclear arrangements. The old, bilateral nuclear symmetry of the Cold War is giving way to new multiplayer, asymmetric nuclear relationships.

And it is doing so at a time when power balances are shifting across Asia, when pressures for proliferation are returning to the regional agenda, and when non-state actors are an increasingly worrying part of the Asian nuclear equation.

Report author Rod Lyon judges that, ‘we are headed into a nuclear order of which we have little previous experience.’

The paper argues that Australia’s own policy options will be profoundly shaped by how Asia’s nuclear future unfolds. We can assist with redesigning nuclear order in a cooperative Asia, including by drawing regional countries into a discussion about how stable deterrent relationships can be built across deep power asymmetries. But a darker, more competitive Asian nuclear future—a future characterised by proliferation, growing credibility problems for US extended nuclear deterrence arrangements, or the return of a revisionist great power—would confront Australian policymakers with difficult choices, of hedging rather than ordering.

‘Nuclear latency’—the set of nuclear-related skills, materials and possible weapons systems—will grow in both Asian futures, Dr Lyon said.  But it would obviously be more worrying in the darker future: there ‘the gaps between mere latency, actual nuclear hedging, and covert proliferation might well become less distinct.’

The report concludes that Australian strategic policy should retain the flexibility to accommodate a range of possible Asian nuclear futures, striking a balance between its ordering and hedging strategies during a possible turbulent era in regional security.

Rod Lyon is Program Director for the Strategy and International Program.

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Release of ASPI Special Report ‘Cyber security: Threats and responses in the information age’

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a new Special Report on cyber security policy in Australia.

This Special Report, authored by Alastair MacGibbon, explores the issue of cyber security from a risk management perspective.

Noting the release of Australia’s new Cyber Security Strategy in November 2009, this paper argues that the development of Australian cyber security policy has been outstripped by the uptake and use of information and communications technologies by the public, industry and government—and concomitant abuse by criminals and foreign powers.  In no small part this has been because of government over-reliance on industry self regulation in which there was a failed belief that the ‘light touch’ telecommunications regulatory regime would see safety and security solutions rising from the private sector at a rate greater than, or equal to, the threat.  The problem has been further compounded by a narrow policy focus addressing the legal definition of cybercrime, rather than the broader problems stemming from information and communications technologies.

This report argues that there is a widening gap between the cyber security problem and our national ability to deal with it and offers a range of policy suggestions targeting various opportunities for government and the private sector, including establishing an internet crime reporting and analysis centre to assist the public, who are increasingly important from a cyber security perspective. The paper concludes that it is time for decisive national leadership, and a step-change in the policy process.

Alastair MacGibbon notes that current policy measures are, ‘directionally correct, but lacking in scale,’ and says there is a, ‘need to broaden definition and better embrace the public.’

‘In short, cyber security is a growing national security concern for three main reasons: the threat posed to Australia’s economic interests; the integrity of Australian Government information and systems; and the wellbeing of the Australian public,’ said Mr MacGibbon.

Alastair MacGibbon is Managing Partner of Surete Group and founder of the Internet Safety Institute.

Release of ASPI Special Report Australian naval combat helicopters-the future

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a report which reviews the current Royal Australian Navy helicopter fleet, including the annual flying hours and costs.

Naval helicopters provide a critical element of the warfighting capability of modern surface ships. The RAN’s current helicopter fleet comes up short in a number of important capabilities. Although the current Seahawk is a capable aircraft, it doesn’t have a dipping sonar for the detection of submarines, an anti-shipping missile or an effective anti-submarine weapon. The situation has been exacerbated by the demise of the billion dollar Super Seasprite helicopter project and the suspension of efforts to provide the Seahawk helicopters with a modern anti-submarine torpedo.

The report finds that Navy is doing a fair job at keeping the existing fleet in the air, although the flying hours don’t come cheaply. The loss of the eleven Seasprites means that the Seahawk fleet will have to continue to shoulder the combat tasks until a replacement can be procured.

The choice for a future helicopter seems to come down to a choice between two types. The new generation ‘Romeo’ variant of the Sikorsky Seahawk is already in service with the US Navy. It has anti-ship and anti-submarine systems and is less expensive than its main rival, the NATO Helicopter Industries NFH (NATO frigate helicopter). The NFH is a larger and structurally more advanced helicopter, and has more capacity in some of the roles it would be called on to perform. It has airframe commonality with helicopters already being bought for Army and Navy that should result in savings over time through economies of scale. But it is also a few years away from full service capability.

The government has to decide whether it needs an immediate decision on the future naval helicopters, and how much risk it wants to bear by choosing between an aircraft already in service and one in the later stages of its development. The best course is probably to wait until hard operator-validated data is available on both of the competitors.

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Release of ASPI Special Report – 2008-09 mid-year Defence budget update

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released its 2008–09 Defence budget update.

The Update examines defence funding as of late 2008 taking account of the government’s mid-year budget revisions, the latest Defence Annual Report, and the impact of the Global Financial Crisis.

The Update argues that, despite the deteriorating economic situation, it is neither desirable nor necessary for the government to step back from its long-term commitment to increase defence spending in real terms by 3% per year.

Not only does defence spending contribute to activity across the Australian economy, but now would be the wrong time to put long-term plans for the Australian Defence Force (ADF) on hold.

In recent years, the Department of Defence (Defence) has struggled to increase its personnel numbers and suffered major delays in acquiring the equipment that the ADF needs for the 21st century.

With ADF recruiting having only recently turned the corner, and many new acquisition projects still in their early stages, it is important that momentum be maintained through continued funding growth.

It is also worth remembering that Defence is committed to find $10 billion of savings across the next decade to meet funding pressures within its budget.

Other key points from the Update are:

• Around $22.4 billion, or roughly 1.8% of GDP, will be spent by Defence in 2008–09

• Even though ADF retention has reached a fifteen-year high and recruitment rates have improved significantly in recent years, serious problems remain in a number of areas including the submarine force and many skilled trades.

• Investment in new equipment continues to be a problem area with $1.9 billion of acquisition spending deferred since the last budget due to delays in existing projects and the slower than expected approval of new projects.

• Notwithstanding the reduction in Australia’s commitment to Iraq, overseas deployments continue to involve around 3,000 personnel at a cost of more than $1 billion in 2008-09. 

Release of ASPI Special Report – The thin green line: Climate change and Australian policing

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a new Special Report that examines the implications of climate change for Australia’s eight police forces and 45,000 police officers.

The reports findings include:
• The interception and possible detention of environmental refugees is likely to require future police resources.
• Police will need to explore what opportunities exist for deception in the emissions trading scheme, particularly where emission trading intersects with world financial markets.
• Pacific island states would be vulnerable to criminal activity associated with carbon markets that may require our police to investigate. 
• Police forces will need to integrate their work with local emergency services and ensure they have a clear role in existing disaster management plans.
• The police may need to deal with possible civil unrest if certain groups feel frustrated that governments are moving too slowly in dealing with climate change and resort to violent protests.
• As water becomes increasingly precious, the lengths to which individuals will go to protect their water assets will increase, resulting in more serious crimes against both persons and property. 
• Police agencies will have to contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. One area that could be addressed is energy efficiency in police motor vehicles.

The report recommends:
• The creation of an information hub to bring together current knowledge and future thinking on climate change and it’s implications for policing. 
• The development of research programs on the social implications of changing climatic conditions in Australia and the impact this might have on law enforcement agencies.
• Australia’s police forces, in cooperation with research bodies, should develop risk assessments of the locations that will be most affected by climate change as part of a multi-agency strategic approach to climate change adaptation.

Release of ASPI Strategic Insight – Improving development and respecting sovereignty: Australia and Papua New Guinea

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a new report on Papua New Guinea.

Australia and Papua New Guinea have a close relationship. A change in government in Australia and the recent re-election of Sir Michael Somare provide an opportunity for reassessment and readjustment to restore a more productive interaction between the two countries.

The report, written by Ronald May, considers PNG government policies over the last decade which aimed to improve economic performance and governance. It considers in-depth the Australia–Papua New Guinea relationship and suggests ways in which the relationship could be enhanced.

These suggestions include:
• technical assistance and cooperation in areas such as coastal surveillance, the tracking of international criminal activities, legislative drafting, audit processes, IT development and environmental monitoring and conservation
• increased people-to-people interaction through cultural, media, sporting and academic exchanges

‘Australia’s ‘re-engagement’ with Papua New Guinea has been welcomed on both sides of the Torres Strait. But Australia must guard against perceptions that in its enthusiasm to see Papua New Guinea go ahead it does not compromise the latter’s sovereignty. Regular joint consultation at various levels of government and civil society is needed, drawing on the expertise built up over the years by Australians working in Papua New Guinea.’

Release of ASPI Special Report Public opinion in Australia towards defence, security and terrorism

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a new Special Report which traces the public’s changing views of the main issues relating to defence and security over an extended period. The paper identifies three key views of the public on defence and security: 

  • The threat of terrorism is now regarded by almost two in three people as part of everyday life in Australia, and half are concerned about becoming the victim of a terrorist attack. Two-thirds are concerned about a major attack in the future.
  • The proportion of voters seeing a conventional security threat to Australia has declined consistently since the late 1960s.
  • Public support for defence links with the United States has remained consistently high over an extended period, though there have been recent declines in support, caused by the unpopularity of the Iraq War. 

Author Ian McAllister says in the post-Cold War world, terrorism is seen by most Australians as the new threat to their security. 

Release of ASPI Strategy Report – Neighbourhood watch: The evolving terrorist threat in Southeast Asia

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a new report on how the Southeast Asian terrorist threat might evolve in the future.

The report was launched by Attorney-General The Hon Robert McClelland MP, at Parliament House. In his speech, the Minister welcomed the publication of the report and said it help Australians better understand the critical challenges faced by our country, and by countries in Southeast Asia.

The regional terrorist threat remains high on the list of Australia’s national security priorities. It is time to take stock of the regional security environment and to ask how the Southeast Asian terrorist threat might evolve in the future.

This report, authored by Peter Chalk and Carl Ungerer, analyses the changing nature of religious militancy and sets out a framework for understanding the forces and trends that are driving jihadist extremism in the region.

A number of policy recommendations are made on the appropriate next steps in Australia’s regional counter-terrorism strategy including leading a diplomatic campaign to ensure compliance with international counter-terrorism conventions.

At the launch, author Dr Carl Ungerer said despite the absence of a major bombing campaign in Southeast Asia since 2005, the regional terrorist threat remains real and requires constant vigilance and monitoring.

Release of Strategic Insights – Policing our ocean domain: Establishing an Australian coast guard

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a new report recommending Australia establish a coast guard. 

The report, written by Derek Woolner, calls for the establishment of a statutory authority, the Australian Coast Guard, out of the current Border Protection Command to be directly responsible to a Minister for the assessment of intelligence, planning and implementation of operations and future improvements to maritime border security. 

‘For almost four decades Australia has had great difficulty in deciding how to police the vast areas of sea to which it claims sovereign rights. There have been significant improvements in the last two years but there is nothing in place to make these permanent or to fully support approaches to getting further improvements’, said author Derek Woolner. 

Currently the authority of Border Protection Command rests on directives issued by the CEO of the Australian Customs Service and the Chief of the Defence Force. The reforms proposed in the report would replace the previous appointed committees created when failure occurs and put in their place a professional organisation able to anticipate problems and operate as Australia’s national maritime police. 

By developing a central organisation for civil maritime security, the Government would widen the options for developing the nation’s maritime expertise through personnel training, capacity available for maritime research, cooperation with regional coastguards and development of plans for the use of Coast Guard capabilities in time of conflict. 

‘Australia’s maritime security was not discussed at the 2020 Summit, yet the very next day Australia accepted sovereign rights over an additional 2.5 million square kilometres of ocean. This puts Australia up with the top maritime nations in the world. It is time that we acknowledged this with arrangements allowing us to control events that happen in our own maritime backyard’, says Woolner.