The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has released a new publication titled ‘Beyond bin Laden: Future trends in terrorism’.

This Strategy report examines the shifting patterns of global terrorism. It is the first major ASPI report on terrorism since the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the geographic, operational and ideological trends that are driving the current wave of jihadist terrorism around the world. Those trends point to the increasing diversification of the threat, as a new generation of terrorist leaders in South Asia, North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula adapt and reinterpret al-Qaeda’s ideology.

The paper argues that new patterns of global terrorism will require more agile and effective policy responses. For Australia, the focus of counter-terrorism and counter-radicalisation efforts must shift towards the three areas most at risk from the influence of al-Qaeda’s ideology – individuals, institutions and the internet.

The paper was written by Carl Ungerer, Director of ASPI’s National Security Program.

The  Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has released a new publication on the challenges for Australia to engage its Pacific neighbours.

The report, authored by Richard Herr and Anthony Bergin, suggests that with rising Chinese influence in the region, the US appears to doubt that Australia can deliver on South Pacific issues.

The Pacific Island members of the United Nations now meet under the rubric of the Pacific Small Islands Developing States that excludes Australia.

The Melanesian Spearhead Group has backed fellow member Fiji against Australian sanctions.  The MSG doesn’t include Australia.

Australia is losing influence over collective decision-making in the South Pacific. 

Australia should re-gather the threads of regional leadership.

The report makes  recommendations to achieve this including: establishing a regional maritime coordination centre; encouraging Chinese participation in regional law enforcement; repairing our relationship with Fiji; providing funding to  the MSG Secretariat; introducing a  scheme for permanent migration from the smaller island states; assessing the practicality of a regional insurance scheme for natural disasters; including the fisheries sector in our Pacific seasonal worker pilot scheme; offering a program of scholarships to talented Islander children to attend boarding schools in Australia; introducing a Colombo Plan for the Pacific islands; creating an Office of Sport and Diplomacy within DFAT to bring together the people of the Pacific through sport; establishing a Pacific islands studies institute here; and ensuring that a Pacific islands posting is part of a complete Australian diplomatic career.

Raspal Khosa has left ASPI to pursue career alternatives.

Raspal joined ASPI in July 2003 as a project officer tasked with the compilation of the first Australian Defence Almanac, a unique publication which brings together information across the full range of Defence activity. Building on its early success, he expanded and updated later editions of the Almanac and oversaw its successful conversion to a web-based publication.

Raspal also coordinated ASPI’s Outreach Program which involves engagement with informed audiences across Australia in support of our research program.

In the past few years Raspal established himself as one of Australia’s leading and most informed and insightful commentators on the conflict in Afghanistan and particularly Australia’s commitment in Uruzgan.

ASPI thanks Raspal for his valued contribution to the work of the Institute over the past eight years and wishes him well in his future endeavours.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released a new report, Serving Australia: control and administration of the Department of Defence.

Serving Australia contains a detailed examination of the control and administration of Defence.  Topics covered include: civil–military relations, Defence’s structure and processes, accountability and governance, transparency and oversight, and Defence reform.

In releasing the report, its author Mark Thomson said:

“In recent times, the Department of Defence has come under close scrutiny due to a range of problems. Issues have included faltering multi-billion dollar acquisition projects, uncertain financial management, and an inability to maintain current capabilities such as the Collins-class submarines and the amphibious fleet. Serving Australia is an attempt to understand the root causes of such problems and identify solutions.”

“Defence is a sprawling and complex organisation whose job is made more difficult by dispersed accountability. In many cases, no single person is responsible for ensuring that critical military capabilities are ready for action. As a result, things fall through the gaps.”

The report makes four recommendations:

• Devolve greater authority and accountability to the Army, Navy and Air Force – and hold them to account for results.

• Strengthen central strategic control so that the Secretary and Chief of the Defence Force can more effectively administer the department. At present, Defence is run like a federation; it needs a dedicated headquarters to allocate resources and manage performance.

• Re-establish contestability within Defence, especially in the critical area of capability development planning. The billions of dollars being invested in new equipment should be subject to independent examination by civilian analysts.  

• Increase transparency and strengthen external scrutiny. With so much taxpayer’s money involved and the nation’s defence at stake, there should be much greater transparency of Defence’s spending and performance.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2011-12.

This document has been written to give readers greater access to the complex workings of the Defence budget and to promote informed debate on defence budget issues. 
 
In releasing the document, ASPI defence analyst Mark Thomson said:

This year’s budget shows that the implementation of the government’s 2009 Defence White Paper is continuing to fall behind schedule.

After Defence handed back $1.5 billion this financial year, $3.9 billion of recurrent funding has been cut from across the next decade and $2.4 billion of planned investment in new equipment has been deferred until after 2014.

Nonetheless, the Defence budget will amount to $26.5 billion next year representing 1.8% of GDP.
 
The deferral of investment is due to the slower than planned delivery of existing projects by industry, and the slow commencement of new projects.

This year’s deferrals add to an already unrealistic ‘bow wave’ of investment in the second half of the decade. Further delays are inevitable.

While the cuts to recurrent funding partly reflect the delayed introduction of new capability, it’s increasingly clear that Defence was simply granted more money than it needed in the 2009 Defence White Paper.

The government needs to get its plans for Defence back on track. The future investment program needs to be brought in line with what can feasibly be achieved over the next few years, and steps need be taken to improve Defence’s understanding of its budget.

The time has come to abandon the promise of 3% real growth in defence spending and instead fund Defence on the basis of what they can realistically and sensibly spend.