ASPI releases Strategic Insight: Manufacturing partners: Japan–South Korea security cooperation and Australia’s potential role

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Today ASPI releases ‘Strategic Insight: Manufacturing partners: Japan–South Korea security cooperation and Australia’s potential role’ by Hayley Channer. Download a copy of this report here.

In Asia, Australia has no closer strategic and ideological partners than Japan and South Korea. Our similar strategic outlooks, economic ties, alliances with the US and liberal democratic values make us highly compatible partners. But while Australia’s bilateral relations are trending upwards, the Japan–ROK relationship has been spiralling downwards.

Problems in Japan–ROK relations are nothing new, but since two bilateral military accords fell through in mid-2012 the relationship has deteriorated to its lowest point in decades. It’s becoming apparent that the two countries could benefit from outside intervention to facilitate deeper cooperation.

Australia is emerging as a potentially effective facilitator of Japan–ROK security cooperation. Australia could ‘manufacture’ a closer security partnership between the two and achieve multiple strategic objectives through trilateral security cooperation.

This paper identifies how Australia fits into Japan–ROK cooperation, the merits and pitfalls of trilateral security cooperation, and whether it’s in Australia’s interests to pursue such an initiative. It draws on over thirty interviews with Japanese, South Korean and Australian specialists, media coverage, alliance theory, and academic analysis to provide recommendations to the government on how Australia can take a more proactive role in developing relations with and between Tokyo and Seoul and tackling regional security challenges.

ASPI releases: A rising power looks down under: Chinese perspectives on Australia

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Thursday 6th March 2014– The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a Strategy Report by Dr Jingdong Yuan: A rising power looks down under: Chinese perspectives on Australia. Click here to download a PDF copy of the report. 

Sino-Australian diplomatic, economic and security ties have experienced significant growth over the past four decades. The general trends have been positive, especially in the economic area, where the two countries have developed strong and mutually beneficial interdependence. However, bilateral relations periodically encounter difficulties and occasionally suffer major setbacks, largely due to differences in ideologies and sociopolitical systems, issues such as Tibet, Taiwan and human rights, and emerging challenges ranging from cybersecurity to the geostrategic shift in the region marked by China’s rise and the US’s rebalancing to Asia.

While there have been substantive debates in Australia on the implications of China’s rise, much less is known about Chinese perspectives on Australia.

To help understand Chinese views of Australia, the paper develops its analysis by drawing from four main sources:

·         official Chinese documents and leaders’ statements as reported in the media or recorded in official dossiers

·         academic analyses published in scholarly journals

·         media coverage of Sino-Australian relations and Australian issues in general

·         a series of interviews the author has conducted with specialists in Chinese think tanks and academic institutions.

Chinese analysts are paying closer attention not only to Australia–US relations, but also to Australia’s aspirations and role as a proactive and creative middle power in regional and global affairs, especially where Canberra’s diplomacy affects issues important to Beijing. Those areas range from nuclear arms control and disarmament, humanitarian interventions and trade negotiations to maritime territorial disputes.

China’s rise offers opportunities as much as it presents challenges to Australian foreign policy.

Australia needs a stable international environment and continued economic growth. A realistic, stable, and forward-looking relationship with China is imperative.

The paper says the Abbott government should have a China policy that’s the result of multi-agency consultation, bipartisan support and internal cohesion within the Coalition and is presented in a unified voice. Canberra should be results-oriented and problem-solving to promote national interests and place less emphasis and diplomatic capital on merely making political statements and grandstanding, which mightn’t be as effective as wished for and, at worst, could be counterproductive.

Dr Jingdong Yuan is Associate Professor at the Centre for International Security Studies and the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney, where he is also an academic member of the China Studies Centre.

CIGI-ASPI major report provides roadmap for Canada and Australia to contribute to regional stability in Asia-Pacific

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A new special report published by The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) and Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) calls for Canada and Australia to deepen their regional security cooperation in East Asia.

Directed by CIGI Distinguished Fellow Len Edwards and ASPI Executive Director Peter Jennings, the year-and-half long study involved intensive consultations with key regional experts and policymakers in the Asia-Pacific. Its final recommendations are contained in the study’s final report, Facing West, Facing North: Canada and Australia in East Asia.  The report was presented today at the Conference of Defence Associations Institute’s 2014 Ottawa Conference and will be presented at the 2014 Australia-Canada Economic Leadership in Melbourne, Australia.

The risk of regional instability is growing…due to China’s re-emergence, continued speculation about US strategic engagement in Asia and increased competition over disputed maritime boundaries,” says the report. “These developments provide opportunities for collaboration between countries like Canada and Australia. Non-traditional security threats, including natural disasters, climate change, food security and cyber security, point to a range of areas where the two countries can work more closely together.

The report calls for Canada and Australia to pursue the following:

  • Align their separate defence and security engagement activities in East Asia, share lessons learned and look for ways to maximize their separate and collective impact in cooperating with regional friends.
  • Work to strengthen regional capabilities in ways that add to stability, in particular, in the areas of peacekeeping skills, counterterrorism, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and cyber resilience. They can also work with others to make regional security governance more effective.
  • Deepen their individual defence and security dialogues and look for cost effective ways to do more together across a broad sweep of areas from exercises to defence reform planning.
  • Find ways to align defence procurement plans to find cost savings and share best practices on equipment procurement. Their reputation as reliable suppliers of freely traded agricultural and energy products should also be strengthened.

“Canada and Australia have both emphasized aspects of their ties to Asia — for Australia, its proximity to the region, and for Canada, its significant Asian population — and both have a national interest in contributing to regional peace and security in a region both identify as the driver of their future prosperity,” says the report. “Combined with their ambitions for closer trade and investment ties with Asia, the two countries have a genuine interest in contributing to peace and security in the world’s most economically vibrant region.”

The report contains several policy recommendations for Canada and Australia to:

  • Strengthen regional security
  • Bolster regional governance mechanisms
  • Enhance bilateral defence cooperation
  • Boost defence industry and economic cooperation

To download a free PDF copy of Facing West, Facing North: Canada and Australia in East Asia, please click here.

Release of ASPI Strategic Insights: Afghanistan—transition to transformation: a role for Australia in helping shape Afghanistan’s future

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On 31 December 2014, Afghanistan will move from a UN-led period of ‘transition’ (2001–2014) to an Afghan-led and -owned ‘transformation decade’ (2015–2024). During transition, the UN has sought to rebuild the basic political, economic and societal infrastructure of Afghanistan. The US and NATO, including Australian forces, which comprise the International Security Assistance Force Afghanistan (ISAF), have had the lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s national security during this period.

The transformation decade will seek to consolidate and build on the outcomes of transition to ensure Afghanistan’s future as a functional, stable and durable state. The Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) will have the lead responsibility for national security during transformation.

Although transition still has nearly a year to go, the end-of-2014 scorecard is expected to be a mix of positives and negatives.

Unless a major turn-around occurs, most national and foreign interlocutors interviewed for this report view Afghanistan’s short and longer term future with varying degrees of pessimism.

There’s a role for Australia including working unilaterally and with other nations, to help shape Afghanistan’s future. We’ve already publicly committed, on a bipartisan basis, to the long-term security, trade and development of Afghanistan after 2014. This report details other approaches including lobbying Afghan politicians to commit to their responsibilities for building the future; improve effectiveness of aid; support multinational, regional and donor countries initiatives to promote political, security and economic cooperation and development that will benefit Afghanistan and its neighbours; utilising other means and opportunities as they arise by using the resources and influence derived from our current membership of the UN Security Council.

You can read the report, authored by Ian Dudgeon, here.

Contact: Cassandra Joyce

Phone: 02 6270 5148

ASPI ranks highly in international survey of think tanks

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ASPI has once again been rated as a world class Institute in the University of Pennsylvania’s 2013 Global Go-To Think Tank Index.

Last year ASPI ranked in the top 30 of Security and International Affairs Think Tanks. This year that category has been split, and ASPI is pleased to have made it onto both new lists. ASPI ranks in the top 20 of ‘defense and national security think tanks’, the highest ranked institute in that category outside of Europe and the United States, and in the top 30 of ‘foreign policy and international affairs think tanks’. 

After 18 months of hard work on establishing our social media presence, ASPI has made its debut in the ‘best use of social networks’ category, ranking in the top 30. Our extensive social media reach allows ASPI to communicate its first class research and analytic ability to the public, something we believe is important as a majority publically  funded think tank.

ASPI is also very pleased to note that its collaboration with South Africa’s Brenthurst Foundation has been recognised as a top 30 collaborative venture. Our work with Brenthurst reflects the importance both our institutes see in developing mature policy discussions both within Africa and with the international community.

Finally, ASPI is delighted to see that the international community thinks that our best work is still ahead of us, ranking us number two on the list of ‘Think tanks to watch’. Given that the number one position was the BRICS Policy Centre in Brazil, representing what by common consensus is the most important developing area in international affairs, we appreciate the vote of confidence.

To see the report go to http://gotothinktank.com/

Contact: Lynne Gozzard

Phone: 02 6270 5109

ASPI is expanding its research team

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ASPI is expanding its team of experts and research scope to respond to the challenges presented by a more complicated strategic outlook and to make a contribution to thinking for a new Defence White Paper in 2013.

Following the departure of Dr Carl Ungerer as National Security Program Director, ASPI is recruiting two Program Directors and one or more Research Associates to provide high level support to the Institute’s research programs. This is an exceptional opportunity for talented individuals to contribute to the work of Australia’s leading think tank on defence and strategic policy issues.

ASPI has been ranked among the top 30 think tanks on security and international affairs in the world in the Go-to Think Tanks index compiled annually by the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program at the University of Pennsylvania. 

Some of the research topics and expertise that the new positions will cover include international defence and security, US–Australia relations and trends, the security aspects of cyberspace, Australian national security policy, Chinese military capability, the strategic dimensions of international economics with a focus on our region, and Australian defence capability development and budgeting.

More information about this recruitment can be found here.

Beyond Af-Pak: Australia’s long-term interests in Pakistan

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new Strategic Insights publication titled ‘Beyond Af-Pak: Australia’s long-term interests in Pakistan’ by Kate Boswood, Jacob Townsend and Silal Shafqat.

The report argues that stability in Pakistan will remain central to the international community’s interests in South Asia, well beyond the war in Afghanistan.

Australia is not a major player shaping the international community’s interests in Pakistan. But we can contribute by fostering security at the margins because we are viewed as having less of an ‘agenda’ or political baggage than others. Australia should shift its practical actions to peripheral geographic areas to engage with Pakistan’s major zones of instability. 
 
The most important of these are Pakistan’s border areas with Afghanistan: Balochistan province, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (KPK) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Large swathes of these areas have long been identified as incubators and theatres of serious transnational security challenges, with impacts felt regionally and globally. But no Australian department is directly attempting to improve security at the local level in Balochistan and KPK.

Australia’s current assistance does not address community insecurity directly. We are missing a strategy that aligns our long-term interests in Pakistan’s stability with more substantive opportunities to pursue them. A practical emphasis on improving community security in Pakistan’s border areas would more closely align with our priority of supporting Pakistan’s stability.

Australia should:
• strengthen civilian oversight of police
• strengthen community policing
• improve training for lower police ranks.

Australia should stress the importance of Pakistan’s future, regardless of what happens in Afghanistan. 
By shifting the focus to improving stability in Pakistan’s peripheries, Australia will find feasible opportunities for engagement that more directly align with our interests. Promoting community security—by supporting civilian oversight of police, community policing pilots, and training for low-rank personnel—is a niche that Australia can fill. 

Key positions announced at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)

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Peter  Jennings, currently the Deputy Secretary for Strategy with the Department of Defence, has been selected to be the new Executive Director of ASPI following the retirement in April of the incumbent, Major General Peter Abigail (Retd).

ASPI is one of Australia’s leading public policy think-tanks. It is an independent, non-partisan policy institute established by the government to provide fresh ideas on Australia’s defence and strategic policy choices.

“Peter was selected for the Executive Director’s position after an extensive global search process,” said Mr Stephen Loosley, Chairman of the ASPI Council. “The Government has now confirmed the appointment.”

“I am pleased to welcome Peter to this position,” Mr Loosley said. “He is a very experienced strategist having worked at the highest levels of Defence and Government over many years.”

“I know that he will bring high quality leadership and analytical skills to ASPI, and further build on the solid reputation of the Institute.”

“I also want to thank Peter Abigail, who is the outgoing ASPI Executive Director,” Mr Loosley said. “Peter Abigail has served ASPI with distinction over the last seven years. He has steered the Institute through a period of significant change and growth, including successfully renegotiating ASPI’s financial agreement with the Department of Defence. Under Peter’s leadership ASPI has cemented its leading role in defence and strategic policy thinking in Australia and been recognised as one of the world’s leading security and international affairs think tanks,” Mr Loosley said.

The Government has also extended Stephen Loosley’s term as Chairman of the ASPI Council.

“I am pleased to serve in this capacity,” Mr Loosley said. “At a time of international change Australia faces a growing range of strategic challenges. ASPI can play an important role in improving the quality of Australia’s strategic policy thinking.”

“I am looking forward to working with Peter Jennings on continuing to strengthen ASPI’s influence and putting forward new strategic thinking for Australia,” Mr Loosley said.

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Note: Peter Jennings bio is available here. Peter Jennings will not be available for interview until he leaves the Defence Department and starts at ASPI in late April. We will advise the media on his availability. Mr Loosley is available for interview at the following number: 02 6270 5110

You can also read the press release from the Minister for Defence here.

Two steps forward, one step back: Indonesia’s arduous path of reform

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The  Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has released a new publication titled ‘Two steps forward, one step back: Indonesia’s arduous path of reform’. Launching the publication, ASPI Executive Director, Peter Abigail, noted that it had been some time since the Institute last wrote upon the topic of Indonesia, and the latest assessment provided a valuable overview of developments in Australia’s large neighbour. 

The publication, written by Professor Damien Kingsbury of Deakin University, says Australians have long worried about whether Indonesia is ‘special’ or ‘normal’. Instead, we need to deal with Indonesia as it really is—a country experiencing simultaneously the challenges of political reform, economic development and a shifting regional security environment. The country’s political future is less certain than we would hope: after SBY’s term of government ends, the choice of a successor will be critical in determining the future of reform. We can’t rule out that Indonesia might slide back to old ways of doing business—democratisation is a fraught process.

As the Indonesian economy grows, so too do the prospects for Indonesia to establish its natural position as the leader of Southeast Asia. As the world is re-examining Indonesia, so too Indonesia is looking afresh at the world—more interested in external issues than it was a decade ago. The Southeast Asian subregion increasingly finds itself at the centre of a more strongly interconnected Indo-Pacific region—so Indonesia’s strategic importance is going up.

It’s important for Australia to build a better strategic relationship with Indonesia. The two are complementary partners. Australia should be proactive in exploring new opportunities for cooperation with a reform minded Indonesia—it’s in our interests to draw Indonesia into a more important strategic role in regional security.

Professor Damien Kingsbury is the Director, Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights, Faculty of Arts and Education, Deakin University, Melbourne.

Japan’s strategic outlook

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released a new report, Japan’s strategic outlook by Dr Rod Lyon.

Japan has endured a difficult couple of decades, but probably confronts another. With its economy stalled, its political system still evolving towards a genuine multiparty system, and its population ageing and shrinking, it confronts a daunting array of domestic challenges.  The great East Asian earthquake of March has only added to its problems. The after-effects will be felt for years, not least in the continuing nuclear problems at Fukushima. Those challenges mean Japan will probably remain an introverted strategic player during the next decade or so.  Arguments made by a range of commentators about five years ago, that Japan had entered a critical ‘turning point’ in its strategic policy, now seem less compelling.

For Australia, the challenge is how to partner with that inward-looking Japan over the next ten-to-fifteen years. The pace of change in Asian strategic settings is such that much may change during that period. And there aren’t many Japan-sized players in the regional system, so we have to work to ensure that the one we already have remains committed to shared objectives to the greatest extent possible. We need to ‘work with’ Japan, perhaps bringing more ourselves to the relationship to offset Japan’s period of hesitancy.  But we might also need a ‘work around’ strategy—accepting that we need to do more with others to compensate for Japan’s strategic hesitancy. Australia wants an Asia with a range of engaged great powers—and Japan is an important part of that future Asia.’