The road to a nuclear North Korea: Regional reactions, global impacts, Australian interests
Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 32/2006
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new Strategic Insight publication titled ‘The
road to a nuclear North Korea: Regional reactions, global impacts, Australian interests’ authored by a panel of leading experts; James Cotton, Stuart Harris and Carl Ungerer.
The paper examines North Korea’s 9 October nuclear test, the culmination of a process begun in the 1960s, when with Soviet assistance Pyongyang began construction of a small experimental reactor.
The immediate regional consequences have been common anger and concern, with widespread speculation about the implications of the North Korean nuclear test for international security and the future of the nonproliferation regime.
Fears have been raised that the test would spark a nuclear arms race as several nuclear-capable states begin to reassess their security policies in the face of North Korea’s actions. Another concern is that the North Korean test will lead to the collapse of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
‘Australia’s interest in the North Korean situation extends to the nonproliferation question and well beyond. Instability in Korea, whether resulting in outright conflict or in internal disorder after a North Korean regime implosion could have many serious consequences’, state the authors.
‘The Australian economy is especially dependent on Northeast Asian economies for trade and investment—three of our four largest commodity trading partners are in Northeast Asia and major tension, let alone conflict, would affect them all. Further, following its role in the Korean War under UN command, Australia retains a residual responsibility for South Korea’s security. Most significant, however, is our membership of the Pacific treaty system centred on the US.’ Whatever action Washington contemplates, it would expect Canberra to support it, including by employing armed force.
Given the centrality of North Korea to Australia’s national interest, the authors argue that it would be in Australia’s interests to encourage the US to adopt a more flexible stance towards the problem.