Riding the Wave: The rise of China and options for Australian policy

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has released its latest Strategy report, which addresses the strategic dimensions of the reemergence of China providing a complement to the earlier David Hale assessment of China’s economic prospects.

The report is authored by Professor Ross Terrill, Harvard-based China specialist and titled ‘Riding the Wave: The rise of China and options for Australian policy’. 

‘The People’s Republic of China’s rapid economic growth rates are accompanied by military advances, a heightened quest for markets and resources, diplomatic assertiveness, and increased national pride. China’s role is now of global importance.’ Professor Terrill reports.

‘As 2006 begins, nobody denies the increased importance of China in Asia and beyond. Final 2005 figures appeared to place China as the world’s fourth largest economy for the first time, ahead of the UK, France and Italy. But the rise of a country to the front rank of world powers is always a complex process.’

‘Chinese foreign policy seeks to maximise stability at home, sustain China’s impressive economic growth, and maintain peace in China’s complicated geographic situation. More problematically, it also seeks to blunt US influence in East Asia. 

The paper argues that China’s fulfilment of its foreign policy goals will depend basically on the evolution of its political system and the reaction of other powers to its ambitions.

Australia’s situation in the region has changed mostly for the better over the past decade, and some sharp choices of the 1990s seem to have been transcended by globalisation, economic developments and the challenge from terrorism. 

This paper urges clear thinking by Australians about whether the US will remain strong and engaged in the region, the proper place of deterrence, the ways Beijing’s mercantilism differs from free-market approaches to the international community, and whether an authoritarian China can also be an enduringly strong China.