Precarious State: Afghanistan and the international and Australian response

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 23/2006

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a new ASPI Strategic Insight publication which examines the current situation in Afghanistan, including international security and reconstruction efforts. It analyses NATO’s expansion into the south of Afghanistan and in particular the 200-strong Australian Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) deployment to the province of Oruzgan, which is due in late July. 

Authored by Strategy and International Program Director Dr Elsina Wainwright, the Insight argues that notwithstanding these new initiatives, insufficient international attention is still being paid to Afghanistan, and it remains an acutely fragile state. Afghanistan has had far fewer international troops and aid per capita than operations in East Timor, Kosovo, Bosnia and Iraq. Several security trends are also worrying, especially the increase in insurgent activity. There were around 1600 Afghan deaths and 91US military deaths from insurgency-related activity in 2005—a 20% increase in a year, making 2005 the most dangerous in Afghanistan since 2001. The insurgency has recently changed tactics, with suicide attacks up almost fourfold in 2005 from 2004 and the use of improvised explosive devices more than doubling in the past year.

‘NATO’s extension into the south and later the east of Afghanistan is appropriate. Real threats to Afghanistan’s stability lie in these regions: they are the heartland of the insurgency. As a result, the deployments will be dangerous for all participating states, including Australia. Predictions have been made that the Taliban and Al Qaeda will seek to test deploying troops.’

‘Australia’s PRT deployment to the restive southern province of Oruzgan, birthplace of former Taliban leader Mullah Omah, will carry considerable risks.’

‘The Australian PRT deployment will also involve a number of operational challenges. Australian forces will receive protection from the Dutch troops, and their security therefore depends on very robust Dutch rules of engagement.’