Release of ASPI Strategic Insights: Afghanistan—transition to transformation: a role for Australia in helping shape Afghanistan’s future

On 31 December 2014, Afghanistan will move from a UN-led period of ‘transition’ (2001–2014) to an Afghan-led and -owned ‘transformation decade’ (2015–2024). During transition, the UN has sought to rebuild the basic political, economic and societal infrastructure of Afghanistan. The US and NATO, including Australian forces, which comprise the International Security Assistance Force Afghanistan (ISAF), have had the lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s national security during this period.

The transformation decade will seek to consolidate and build on the outcomes of transition to ensure Afghanistan’s future as a functional, stable and durable state. The Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) will have the lead responsibility for national security during transformation.

Although transition still has nearly a year to go, the end-of-2014 scorecard is expected to be a mix of positives and negatives.

Unless a major turn-around occurs, most national and foreign interlocutors interviewed for this report view Afghanistan’s short and longer term future with varying degrees of pessimism.

There’s a role for Australia including working unilaterally and with other nations, to help shape Afghanistan’s future. We’ve already publicly committed, on a bipartisan basis, to the long-term security, trade and development of Afghanistan after 2014. This report details other approaches including lobbying Afghan politicians to commit to their responsibilities for building the future; improve effectiveness of aid; support multinational, regional and donor countries initiatives to promote political, security and economic cooperation and development that will benefit Afghanistan and its neighbours; utilising other means and opportunities as they arise by using the resources and influence derived from our current membership of the UN Security Council.

You can read the report, authored by Ian Dudgeon, here.

Contact: Cassandra Joyce

Phone: 02 6270 5148